The record is acceptable, but I'm more concerned about the manner in which we lose. Even if we're fully healthy, if the playoffs started today I don't see us winning against the top teams in the West.
luckily DAL, SAC, and PHO won't be possible first round matchups for us, because i don't see us winning against those teams either...
We are 12-3 against the East and we won't be playing them in the playoffs unless we get to the Finals. We are 14-12 against the West, which is very mediocre. Of these games, we are 6-8 against playoffs bound teams in the West.
If the Rockets get bounced in the first, McHale will probably be fired, but you have to wonder if Morey can get peanuts for Assik. Everyone knows he has to be dealt, and everyone knows the Rockets are shorthanded until he's traded. Something has to give, and that something could be the coach. Expectations are too high to accept what happened last night.
Good analysis but exactly the wrong conclusion. It's going to take years of continuity to make us into a contender.
1. I am not sure that Morey cares about whether the 26-15 record meets the fans' expectations, Vegas' expectations or even his own expectations coming into the season. The real questions is whether this level of performance suggest that this team is likely to go far in the playoffs. And the answer is "no." A 52-ish win team at the end of the season is a level below the very best teams. In the West, it means likely a middle playoff seed, a 50/50-type chance of beating a (similarly seeded) 1st round opponent, and an underdog in subsequent rounds against likely top seeded opponents. As reflected in recent media interviews, Morey knows that this team has to be come a whole tier better-- i.e., performing at a 60-ish win level by the end of the season-- in order to become the type of team that he and Les Alexander want. 2. The bad news is that it's typically REALLY hard to go from a 50-55 win level to a 60+ win (+expected deep playoff) run level-- much harder than to go from 30 to 40 wins or even from 40 to 50 wins. A lot of teams get to the 50+ wins but never go much further before injury/player departure/father time catch up with them. 3. People can talk about positional needs all they want, the fact is the team is that, at this level, going up a whole tier requires the addition of just another guy who is really good at basketball-- like top 30 in the NBA good. Position or player type don't matter a whole lot except you just don't want a guy that is very difficult to play with Harden or Howard (like how Omer Asik and Howard not working as a frontline combo). 4. These guys are hard to get. Teams that have them don't just give them away, and they don't just take MLE in free agency. So, Morey will have to take some chances. It can mean getting a guy with behavior issues like Ron Artest. It can mean giving up a valuable asset like Terrence Jones. It can mean dumping Lin+Asik's salaries even if this means taking a step back in the 2014 season so the team can play the free agent market. The point is, Morey should not play it safe this February and only go after Mike Dunleavy-types.
What's separating this team from contention is lack of maturity and lack of bench. Possibly coaching as well, jury is still out on that one for me.
I doubt Morey is going to want to fire McHale as long as McHale doesn't lose the locker room-- and in particular his two stars. First, I think Morey knows that this team is a level below true contender and being a middle-seed playoff team means you have a 50/50 chance of surviving the 1st round, and a much lower chance of going past the 2nd. Morey also likely knows that getting this team to the next level requires the addition of a substantial player and not just making tactical adjustments. Also, I don't think Morey has any disagreements with McHale-- or more specifically his staff-- as far as tactics go. The coaching staff is as receptive to the analytics approach as any other. So, Morey himself is likely responsible for, or at least in agreement with, most of the tactical choices. It's not like the Rockets are being coached by Doug Collins, who asked his Philly team to shoot a ton of midrange Js.
these are reasonable enough positions. however, they do leave out the possibility that les may not like what he sees. at all. and at the end of the day he will determine mchale's fate here, not morey. also, if les sees a better coach available (ie SVG) i really do not think he will extend mchale in june...
I agree that Les Alexander will be a bigger factor than Morey if there is going to be a coaching change. As we know, Les gets impatient with coaches sometimes though he does keep them the length of their contracts at least. Another big factor, perhaps even bigger than Les, is Dwight Howard. If Dwight Howard has a strong opinion in support of McHale, I doubt even Les goes against Dwight's wishes. You are not winning anything with a disgruntled and unfocused Dwight Howard and remember Dwight can opt out 2 seasons after this one (and can start forcing his way out well before that). My guess is that if Dwight supports McHale, the most that the front office and Les will do is to change some of the assistant coaches. SVG, though, is a wild card since he is another guy that Dwight Howard has personal and professional affections for. Dwight might be OK with a coaching change even if he likes McHale if SVG is the replacement. But it's all speculation. The point remains, though-- this team isn't winning a championship without a substantial upgrade in talent. Morey needs to look out for "Ron Artest" opportunities.
I think it will take several more 2nd half embarrassments to get McHale fired, so his job is safe this season. But his body language is some of the worst I've ever seen from a coach. I wonder if chronic pain is a factor?
Body language of the coach only matters if the players think it's bad and this causes him to lose the players.
We are right where we thought we would be. The path has been different than expected. Right now, we are winning on talent and losing on depth and chemsitry.
i remember a phone interview early in the season with both DM and SVG on at the same time. since then it's always been in the back of my head that SVG is definitely in touch with the front office and an option being at the least considered should things not work out with mchale. the talent definitely needs to be upgraded, and as you pointed out about dwight being happy, imo it needs to be added before summer 2015 when dwight can opt out. but not only upgrading with another go-to guy, they also need to add much better shooters who can open up the paint a bit for dwight. harden is shooting low 30's from deep, and lin/jones/parsons are exceptionally streaky. garcia and casspi imo, should not even be in the longterm rotation. we really have not even 1 knockdown option from deep on this team. and you look at all the other contenders they have typically more than 1..
The Pacers were within a blown defensive assignment(and resulting LeBron layup) from the NBA Finals last season. So quit comparing this team to them.
They were a 49 team win last year and a ECF default team. The comparison is absolutely fair. They took a significant step forward this year as they got more experience and rounded out their depth.
And exactly. This is the first year with a basically brand new team. We're not going to win every close game and play like the Spurs do in the last seconds. Next season we can't use that excuse. But as long as we get the last 2 parts down by playoffs time. We'll be fine. Because in the playoffs. our record doesn't matter.
You can believe what you want. But I don't think very many folks on here or anywhere for that matter think the Rockets in their current state have a prayer of achieving what the Pacers did last season.
I think the "better shooters" will have to come after the "third impact player" (and "impact player" doesn't necessarily mean "go-to player"-- Andre Iguodala and Lamar Odom as a Laker are examples). At the very least, you don't want to devote resources to getting a shooter that could be needed land a bigger fish. On this point, I think it's interesting to compare the Clippers' offseason to the Rockets'. The Clippers used pretty much all of their future assets in hope of upgrading present performance-- Eric Bledsoe gone, MLE spent, even a 1st round pick traded for Doc Rivers. The Rockets, on the other hand, have held on to Asik, young players (Jones, DMo, Canaan), all of their future picks, and didn't even spend the room midlevel exception on a free agent. Besides Dwight Howard, all they added were minimum wage guys (Garcia, Casspi, Reggie Williams, Brewer, Camby). I don't think Morey is content to just go into the offseason without a substantial addition to the present roster while he has so many unused arrows in his quiver. He's been patient, but is waiting for an opportunity to arise.
