5 Reasons Why I Think The Rockets Could Be Better Next Season

Remii · Aug 6, 2014

Great thread Crash...

And I'm tiered of defending TJ.... So I'm just sitting back waiting for the season to start so I can serve up some crow to all of these TJOH's. And they're all going to eat out of the same bowl with the same spoon.

<3myrockets · Aug 6, 2014

Agree with your post. consistent play by Jones will be huge in how defenses react to us. We now have enough outside shooting to spread the floor which will put a lot of pressure on their bigs to hold DH and jones.

Defense will be the biggest upgrade this season. We have scrappy guys who are willing to grind it out for the win. I'm hoping we get the rep of being a physically tough team as the season progresses.

New · Aug 6, 2014

Nice post! Just want to point out that one should avoid comparing a spot up shooter 'a 3pt to a player maker's. This is mainly because the latter players have to shoot the ball even if they are not open. Their 3pts are generally tougher than the spot up shooter. We need to pull sportvu stats.
crash5179 said: ↑
After the Rockets misfortune in free agency this summer it took me a while to get over almost having what was most likely the early season favorite for the NBA Championship leading into next season. Prior to that my last memory of the team is the disastrous last second shot by Damien Lillard. So there hasn’t been a ton of inspiration for me this summer.

But now that I have had a chance to process the events of this past summer and analyze what the Rockets look like going forward, without the heavy burden of all the negative emotions I was feeling about the team, I’m excited about the upcoming season and think the Rockets can actually be significantly better with this team than the one that ended last season. Following is a very long write-up summarizing 5 reasons why I think the Rockets could be better than last season.

1. Terrence Jones

Most of us consider the play at the Power Forward position or the lack of play as the primary reason the Rockets lost in the 1st round. Ok, many probably think as much or more blame should go to James Harden but it was LaMarcus Aldridge that buried the Rockets in the first two games of the play-offs in Houston this past post season. LMA had back-to-back career nights.

So just how bad was Terrence Jones defense against LMA? As painful as it was, I watched all of LMA’s scoring possessions and made a clip of each one where Terrence Jones was on the floor for the 2nd play-off game. His crimes included a lack of court awareness, he had a habit of watching the shooter and not getting a body on LMA which lead to second chance points and he allowed LMA on multiple occasions to bully him in the paint. In all Terrence was on the floor during 8 of the possessions where LMA scored his 43 points but of those 8 possessions he was responsible for guarding LMA 7 times.

Here is a clip of those 8 possessions:

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Those clips basically showed all the things that made Terrence such a bad defender.
- Lack of court awareness
- Not finding someone to block out during available rebounds
- Lack of strength holding defensive position

So lets just cut him now right?

He’s Only 22!

And he has only played in 95 games an only started 71 of those games in his NBA career so far. He made huge progress from his rookie season to his sophomore season and for all of the warts I pointed out in the previous video the guy has a lot going for him as well. One of the players mentioned the most often, as a possible addition to the Rockets and as a replacement to Terrence Jones is Paul Millsap. So just for the sake of comparison I decided to compare the production of each player as they were in their 2nd years.

Paul Millsap 6’8” 245 lbs.
Terrence Jones 6’9” 252 lbs.

This is just a general comparison of their on court production and not a comparison of their particular styles of play. A couple of notes to remember while comparing their production is that Millsap averaged 18 minutes per game as an NBA rookie and played in all 82 games while Terrence Jones in his rookie year was essentially a D-League player most of the year and averaging only 14 minutes in the 19 NBA games he actually played in.

Since Terrence Jones was a starter in his 2nd season and Paul Millsap was not I did a “per game” comparison as well as a “per 36 minutes” comparison.

Each Players Per Game Stats From Their 2nd Seasons:
Code:
Player	        Age	Pos	G	GS	MP	FGA	FG%	3PA	3P%	2P%	FT%	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
T. Jones	22	PF	76	71	27.3	9.4	0.542	1.3	0.307	0.581	0.605	6.9	1.1	0.7	1.3	0.9	1.8	12.1
P. Millsap	22	PF	82	2	20.8	6.1	0.504	0	0	0.508	0.677	5.6	1	0.9	0.9	1.1	3.3	8.1
Each Players Per 36 Minutes Stats From Their 2nd Seasons:
Code:
Player	        Age	Pos	G	GS	MP	FGA	FG%	3PA	3P%	2P%	FT%	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
T. Jones	22	PF	76	71	2078	12.3	0.542	1.7	0.307	0.581	0.605	9.1	1.5	0.9	1.7	1.2	2.4	16
P. Millsap	22	PF	82	2	1702	10.6	0.504	0.1	0	0.508	0.677	9.7	1.7	1.5	1.5	1.8	5.7	14
Their production while on the court is remarkably similar. Blocks, Assists, Rebounds are all very similar. Terrence does have a decided edge on the offensive end as his shooting percentages are significantly higher than Millsap’s. Millsap also fouled a ton more than did Jones in their 2nd years.

What the stats don’t tell is how good of a defensive player each was in their 2nd years. While I did not watch much Paul Millsap in the 2007/2008 season I can assume that he probably would not have been on the court and playing for Jerry Sloan if he did not play defense. I have already pointed out Jones defensive deficiencies in the previous video clip.

Traditionally, players make their largest jumps between year 2 and 3.

If Terrence Jones continues to develop in his 3rd year as much as he developed in his 2nd year, he could very well be all we need at Power Forward. If he continues to develop throughout his career then there is pretty high probability IMO that he turns out to be better than Millsap.

But as I’m sure some are eager to point out, it’s not the 2nd year version of Paul Millsap most people are wanting to trade for, it’s the 2014/2015 version they want. Still, is Millsap good enough to warrant giving up on a player that is 6 years younger, bigger, more athletic and has a very good chance of being just as good as him next season or even better in a couple of seasons? Terrence Jones ceiling is an All-Star (not superstar) caliber player IMO, although he would still be a couple of years away from that if he eventually develops into that caliber of player.

In case we have forgotten, here is a video clip of some of the things that Terrence Jones already does exceptionally well.

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There are 4 things that Terrence Jones needs to be working on this summer:
- His on court awareness, specifically on defense
- Man to Man Defense
- 3 point shooting
- Free Throw Shooting

His court awareness should get better regardless just as he matures as a player. If he works to become a respectable man to man defensive player and if he can increase his 3pt percentage from last season’s .307 to around .330 or .340 then we are set at the Power Forward spot. And for those that think a 22 year old can not improve his 3 point stroke I would suggest telling that to the following players:

Kyle Lower
22 year old 3pt% = .255
Last Season 3pt% = .380

Trevor Ariza
22 year old 3pt% = .278
Last Season 3pt% = .407

Jeremy Lin
22 year old 3pt% = .200
Last Season 3pt% = .358

At 22 years old, Terrence Jones (.307 3pt%) was a better 3pt shooter than all of them.

2. Troy Daniels

Last season, despite leading the NBA in 3pt shooting attempts, the Rockets were a below average 3pt shooting team hitting only .358 percent of their shots. The Rockets best 3pt shooter last season was Chandler Parsons who shot .370. The only other players that had a significant role on the team to finish above the league average of .360 were James Harden at .366 & Patrick Beverly at .361 (Aaron Brooks had a .408 average but was used sparingly and traded at the deadline). Jeremy Lin who was the Rockets most important bench player finished below the league average at .358, no one else on the team was even close. For a team that relies so heavily on the 3pt shot, thats not acceptable.

Troy Daniels, despite only playing in 5 regular season and 4 post season NBA games, might already be an elite 3 point shooter.

Regular Season Per Game Averages:
Minutes – 15
3pt Attempts – 5
3pt Makes – 2.4
3pt Average - .480

Post season Per Game Averages:
Minutes – 17
3pt Attempts – 3.8
3pt Makes – 2
3pt Average - .533

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Of course I have to include this clip from Clutch:

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I know, small sample size, yada yada yada. But what makes me so optimistic about Troy Daniels is the same thing that should make everyone optimistic, what he did in the Regular or Post season with the Rockets is no different than what he did for Rio Grand Valley Vipers which was no different then what he did for VCU in college. His last season at VCU he average .401 while taking almost 9 three point attempts a game. At RGV he averaged .401 while taking almost 13 three point attempts a game. Troy Daniels is not shy about shooting the 3pt shot, as a matter of fact he is an aggressive 3pt shooter.

The league has plenty of guys that can average .400 or better only taking 1 or 2 three point shots a game. How many of those same guys could average .400 or better while taking 9 to 12 three point shots a game?

Based on what Troy Daniels has done his entire basketball life, up to and including the end of last season in the NBA, if he doesn’t launch a ton of 3pt shots while making at least 40% of them I will be shocked. If he does take and make a lot of 3 point shots next season then we will finally have someone that can help limit James Harden’s minutes. The last two seasons, James averaged 38 minutes a game and decent back up. If Troy can give the Rockets 14 to 15 quality minutes while providing a spark he can help limit James minutes to 34 to 35 minutes a game.

3. Defense

Last season the Rockets did not have many good defenders on the team. Chandler Parsons defense went from outstanding in his rookie season to non-existent last season. Omer Asik was an elite defender but he was hurt most of the season. Lin, Parsons, Harden, DMo and Casspi were all average to below average defenders at best, in some cases they were absolutely atrocious on defense. Typically, Patrick Beverly, Omer Asik and Dwight Howard were the only good defenders the Rockets could put on the floor.

The new Rockets that should help the defense immensely this season are Trevor Ariza, Nick Johnson, Joey Dorsey and Jeff Adrien all come to the Rockets with the reputation of being plus defenders. Ariza will be starting and Dorsey, Johnson and Adrien all have a very good chance at being part of the regular rotation.

Imagine throwing out Beverly, Johsnon, Ariza, Adrien and Howard to defend any last second shot. That group would represent a significant defensive upgrade over the group that allowed Damian Lillard to drain that last second 3pt shot against the Rockets in the play-offs.

Additionally, if Daniels can provide the depth at the shooting guard position that the Rockets have desperately needed the last two season, the James Harden might have the ability to expend a little more energy on the defensive end of the floor. And in case anyone has missed it, read the following Clutchfans thread about the improvement of James Hardens defense this summer.

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=257326

While I think Donatas Motiejunas has improved over the last couple of years and has likely cemented himself into the rotation, he still has to show he can play defense with out getting into foul trouble. With Asik gone to the Pelicans it would appear that all of the center minutes belong to him…but there is another.

Joey Dorsey was made fun of when he was shipped out of Houston a few seasons ago because of comments he made about being the basketball version of Ray Lewis, his inability to stay out of foul trouble and the fact that his head was not completely screwed on straight. But make no mistake about it, Joey Dorsey has a lot of athleticism and when he is on the floor, he rebounds at an elite rate as well as plays defense with terminal intensity. This is one of those moves that most people probably roll their eyes at but if Joey has his head on straight and can stay out of foul trouble then he could have the same type of impact on defense that Omer Asik had. I he is a solid addition to the bench.

4. The Offense

Chandler Parsons and Jeremy Lin are sizable hits to the offense, both in the starting unit and the bench. But there are reasons the offense could be better this season over last season. Beverly, Harden, Jones & Howard are just finished their 1st season starting together. James Harden had never played with an elite Center like Dwight Howard until last season. Terrence Jones and Patrick Beverly had never been starters in the NBA until last season. Now they all have a full year playing together I expect a reasonable amount of organic growth.

Terrence Jones is poised to take a major step forward in his carrier as an offensive option. I believe Terrence will step into Chandler’s spot as the 3rd offensive option this season averaging 15 to 17 points per game. If he improves his 3pt stroke from .307 to .330 or more then he becomes exponentially more deadly because he is so good at putting the ball on the floor when opposing Power Forwards try to close out on his jump shot. And opposing Power Forwards will be forced to close out on his 3pt shots if he improves in that area.

I expect Houston’s 3pt shooting to be much improved next season.
- Trevor Ariza as a starter and Troy Daniels off of the bench adds two players that hit over 40% of their treys last season.
- Both Patrick Beverly and James Harden should return to their career 3pt averages or better after below career averages last season.
- The addition of 3pt shooter Isaiah Canaan as the back up point guard

Houston’s 3pt shooting could be among the best in the NBA next season.

I expect Donatas Motiejunas to have a bigger role on the offensive end off of the bench this coming season. He has proven that he has good post moves and can score in the NBA. Much like in Terrence Jones case, Donatas should make his biggest leap forward in development this season since players historically make their biggest improvements between years 2 and 3.

5. The Bench

I think the bench has the ability to be light years better than the bench we had last season.
1. 3rd year DMo will be better than 2nd year DMo.
2. A healthy Joey Dorsey will be better than a grumpy, injured, unmotivated Omer Asik.
3. Jeff Adrien will be a better back up to Ariza than Casspi was to Parsons.
4. I like Daniels, Canaan & Johnson backing up Beverly and Harden as opposed to just Lin. Those guys represent both improved 3pt shooting and improved defense over what we had off of the bench behind Harden and Beverly last season.

I would still like to see one more addition for another 3 and D small forward since Adrien plays more like a power forward on the offensive end. Overall though, I think the bench has some potential scoring punch with Canaan, DMo and Daniels as well as players with extreme defensive reputations.

Summery[/b

Like everyone I am disappointed that we did not sign Chris Bosh and then follow that up with matching Chandler Parsons. But I’m glad that Daryl Morey has not just gone out and started signing used up veterans like Jameer Nelson that have nothing left to offer or a bunch of former high draft picks that never amounted to anything as a reaction to losing out on both Bosh and Parsons in the same weekend. Instead Daryl does what he always does and finds pieces in Europe, D-League etc… that other GM’s did not think of that are infinitely more productive than the recycled non-productive journeymen type of additions that most GM’s do. Having said that I would still covet Ray Allen or Shawn Marion as championship veterans with something still left in the tank.

The Rockets, IMO have improved their bench as well as their starting unit by way of better Defense, better 3 point shooting and at least one draft pick that looks like he is ready to contribute right now.

The team has 3rd year players in DMo, TJones and Beverly that should make some step forward in their games. The addition of Daniels at the shooting guard spot should help regulate Hardens minutes, making him better on both ends of the court.

Plus the Rockets still have use of their 8.4 million Jeremy Lin trade exception and an almost guaranteed lottery draft pick for next summer at their disposal.
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New · Aug 6, 2014

New said: ↑

Nice post! Just want to point out that one should avoid comparing a spot up shooter 'a 3pt to a player maker's. This is mainly because the latter players have to shoot the ball even if they are not open. Their 3pts are generally tougher than the spot up shooter. We need to pull sportvu stats.

Click to expand...

Rocket still needs a second player maker. While Lin did not do a great job, we still need someone to replace him.

ThisVoice · Aug 7, 2014

Better hope Dwight Howard stays healthy this coming season. He is more important to the team than James Harden

EightDoobies · Aug 7, 2014

Good read. I still believe Rockets will be better this season. Harden is playing with a chip on his shoulder this year. You can see it in the USA training camp.

HoopFan · Aug 7, 2014

EightDoobies said: ↑

Good read. I still believe Rockets will be better this season. Harden is playing with a chip on his shoulder this year. You can see it in the USA training camp.
Click to expand...

I guess we will see. Our opinions don't count...

chandlerbang21 · Aug 7, 2014

francisco garcia still looking for a home. Guess he can come back to houston on vet minimum deal

Deuce · Aug 7, 2014

This is a really great post and I had been thinking similar thoughts. Time for the team to get more business like and grittier.

Parsons was the team captain. Now he is gone and it puts the FULL FOCUS on DH and JH to be co-captains and LEAD. It puts the focus on Beverley to sound the defensive horn and get the role players going.

topfive said: ↑

I'll add one more reason: Attitude

Last year was all about having fun. We heard the guys saying over and over what great chemistry they had and how much they loved hanging together. Every freakin' interview they repeated that stuff. Where did it get them? A first-round exit due to poor play at the most important point of the season. This year's team icon: Parsons, having so much fun!

This year is going to be all about business. Chandler and Lin have taken their bromance talents to Dallas and LA. We've got Ariza coming in, who seems like he's never had fun in his life. Harden is tired of hearing about what a sieve he is on D and is already showing the necessary effort to improve that part of his game. And I guarantee that Dwight was mightily pissed off when his new team got no further than the first round. Once Morey lost out on the big names, he responded by proving he saw what our weakest link was and brought in some defense. I just hope Milkhair and his staff toughen things up, too. This year's team icon: Patrick Beverley, full-tilt effort for 94 feet.
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Madmanmetz · Aug 7, 2014

Terrence Jones is poised to take a major step forward in his carrier as an offensive option. I believe Terrence will step into Chandler’s spot as the 3rd offensive option this season averaging 15 to 17 points per game. If he improves his 3pt stroke from .307 to .330 or more then he becomes exponentially more deadly because he is so good at putting the ball on the floor when opposing Power Forwards try to close out on his jump shot. And opposing Power Forwards will be forced to close out on his 3pt shots if he improves in that area. QUOTE said:

Jones is the biggest key. Improving his 3 point shot is no doubt the biggest factor for the Rockets making a step forward. The Arzia move is in my mind better in to key factors of wing defense (our biggest need) and improving our 3 point shooting. Other than chemistry from Parsons (my favorite player to watch last season) the Rockets lose a good penetrator. But your videos showed Jones has the ability to put it on the floor and as you mentioned in a later reply Ariza is a little better than most mention at driving to the bucket. But the biggest hit to the team is Parsons allowed the Rockets to play small ball with him at the 4. This why Jones must get respectable from 3 point range. That said our starting 5 on paper is a better matched unit.

I agree Jones is poised to step up. After having a season and a playoff series to get a taste of NBA talent on a regular basis he will build on the foundation to be better at all of his game. We saw the same thing with Chandler offensively after he got to get a full season of work under his belt and playtime increased.

Defensively Jones like most players with length, size, and athleticism and only 22 years old he shows flashes and hustles but he gets lost, pushed around, tricked by veteran moves. The only way these young guys get better is by playing. Jones will improve but to what degree will be dependant on his heart, his coach staff demanding results, his teammates demanding accountability. It's hard to speculate the degree of improvement but as a former basketball coach there is no excuse on most plays for not putting a body on a guy for a rebound. IF he could improve in that area alone (awareness) it will make a big impact for the Rockets. As close as the series was with Portland it could have made a difference.

The bench like most years for the Rockets has big changes, last year we had hopes that Casspi would fill Delfino's spot and Garcia would deliver a full years worth of production we saw against OKC. Lin was to be our offensive fire power with Beverley starting. Asik gave us the best back up big in the league. This year Canaan will be given a chance to step up, he can shoot better than Lin, he won't be much worse in other areas of offense or defense than Lin. Daniels is a DEAD RED SHOOTER, this will give us an X-Factor we've missed for years. As Van Gundy always said "the NBA is a make or miss league". The Sniper from the Vipers should at minimum get 8 minutes a night giving Harden the rest to play better defense. Johnson looks good so far and his skills of defense and driving at THIS point could translate on a 8-10 minutes a game if need be but the plan will be D-League early on, playing the point more. D-Mo is ready like you pointed out, he has seasoned long enough. He'll get an additional 7+ minutes a night to get him at 22+ a night. I think he'll calm down a little and we'll see his true talent. The problem is he is not a stopper. That's where Dorsey comes in. I like you think Dorsey could pay big benefits. That Jones blocking out issue will be exposed during practice with Dorsey. Dorsey could pair with D-Mo when Howard goes to the bench and Jones is in foul trouble or needs a rest. Dorsey will be looking to prove something after playing over seas. So the bench is short on experience at the NBA level but the pieces are there. Covington, Hamilton, or Gee will need to provide some wing help. I look for us to find the right vet mid season to fill in for the bench area that doesn't pan out.

Great write up Crash!
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Dhoward12 · Aug 7, 2014

http://youtu.be/b5QSlLIOkuA?list=LLcETFWOJBQo3iPkcRHTk0Qg

Rockets could be way better if Howard lets loose.

What i wanna know is why Howard doesnt shoot more, he obviously has worked on it, needs more confidence in himself.

DrNuegebauer · Aug 7, 2014

The thing regarding T Jones and his shot (and this may have been said already elsewhere in the thread) is that he shot 30.7% from downtown last season.

Some people are suggesting that Thad Young is a 'stretch 4', but he shot 30.8% last season from downtown (career 32.1% shooter)

Jones improved from 26.3% in his rookie season to 30.7% last season (and had more attempts per game). There is every reason to believe that he could improve again this season - even a marginal improvement sees him as a better shooting option than someone like Thad Young (Jones already has a huge size advantage)

bongman · Aug 8, 2014

I agree with OP's thoughts about TJ but I would also like to add a few more about Dmo. I understand that he is lacking in certain aspects of the game like rebounding and paint protection but he appears to be the one of the hardest working member in our team.

There is really no substitute for passion. Anybody who puts that kind of dedication to any craft in most cases, succeeds. Place him in a different system where he consistently gets 25 mins/game and allows him to use his skill set, his value will rise.

I have high hopes for him and hopefully this season, he will eliminate our need to look for a backup C.

B-Bob · Aug 8, 2014

New said: ↑

Nice post! Just want to point out that one should avoid comparing a spot up shooter 'a 3pt to a player maker's. This is mainly because the latter players have to shoot the ball even if they are not open. Their 3pts are generally tougher than the spot up shooter. We need to pull sportvu stats.
Click to expand...

Sorry for a non-basketball post, but just a tiny request: since it's clear you're referring to the OP, try not to quote an entire enormously long post. Then the thread is easier for everyone else to navigate. Not a big deal, but just trying to help. Cheers.

old_eggplant · Aug 8, 2014

crash5179 said: ↑
After the Rockets misfortune in free agency this summer it took me a while to get over almost having what was most likely the early season favorite for the NBA Championship leading into next season. Prior to that my last memory of the team is the disastrous last second shot by Damien Lillard. So there hasn’t been a ton of inspiration for me this summer.

But now that I have had a chance to process the events of this past summer and analyze what the Rockets look like going forward, without the heavy burden of all the negative emotions I was feeling about the team, I’m excited about the upcoming season and think the Rockets can actually be significantly better with this team than the one that ended last season. Following is a very long write-up summarizing 5 reasons why I think the Rockets could be better than last season.

1. Terrence Jones

Most of us consider the play at the Power Forward position or the lack of play as the primary reason the Rockets lost in the 1st round. Ok, many probably think as much or more blame should go to James Harden but it was LaMarcus Aldridge that buried the Rockets in the first two games of the play-offs in Houston this past post season. LMA had back-to-back career nights.

So just how bad was Terrence Jones defense against LMA? As painful as it was, I watched all of LMA’s scoring possessions and made a clip of each one where Terrence Jones was on the floor for the 2nd play-off game. His crimes included a lack of court awareness, he had a habit of watching the shooter and not getting a body on LMA which lead to second chance points and he allowed LMA on multiple occasions to bully him in the paint. In all Terrence was on the floor during 8 of the possessions where LMA scored his 43 points but of those 8 possessions he was responsible for guarding LMA 7 times.

Here is a clip of those 8 possessions:

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Those clips basically showed all the things that made Terrence such a bad defender.
- Lack of court awareness
- Not finding someone to block out during available rebounds
- Lack of strength holding defensive position

So lets just cut him now right?

He’s Only 22!

And he has only played in 95 games an only started 71 of those games in his NBA career so far. He made huge progress from his rookie season to his sophomore season and for all of the warts I pointed out in the previous video the guy has a lot going for him as well. One of the players mentioned the most often, as a possible addition to the Rockets and as a replacement to Terrence Jones is Paul Millsap. So just for the sake of comparison I decided to compare the production of each player as they were in their 2nd years.

Paul Millsap 6’8” 245 lbs.
Terrence Jones 6’9” 252 lbs.

This is just a general comparison of their on court production and not a comparison of their particular styles of play. A couple of notes to remember while comparing their production is that Millsap averaged 18 minutes per game as an NBA rookie and played in all 82 games while Terrence Jones in his rookie year was essentially a D-League player most of the year and averaging only 14 minutes in the 19 NBA games he actually played in.

Since Terrence Jones was a starter in his 2nd season and Paul Millsap was not I did a “per game” comparison as well as a “per 36 minutes” comparison.

Each Players Per Game Stats From Their 2nd Seasons:
Code:
Player	        Age	Pos	G	GS	MP	FGA	FG%	3PA	3P%	2P%	FT%	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
T. Jones	22	PF	76	71	27.3	9.4	0.542	1.3	0.307	0.581	0.605	6.9	1.1	0.7	1.3	0.9	1.8	12.1
P. Millsap	22	PF	82	2	20.8	6.1	0.504	0	0	0.508	0.677	5.6	1	0.9	0.9	1.1	3.3	8.1
Each Players Per 36 Minutes Stats From Their 2nd Seasons:
Code:
Player	        Age	Pos	G	GS	MP	FGA	FG%	3PA	3P%	2P%	FT%	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
T. Jones	22	PF	76	71	2078	12.3	0.542	1.7	0.307	0.581	0.605	9.1	1.5	0.9	1.7	1.2	2.4	16
P. Millsap	22	PF	82	2	1702	10.6	0.504	0.1	0	0.508	0.677	9.7	1.7	1.5	1.5	1.8	5.7	14
Their production while on the court is remarkably similar. Blocks, Assists, Rebounds are all very similar. Terrence does have a decided edge on the offensive end as his shooting percentages are significantly higher than Millsap’s. Millsap also fouled a ton more than did Jones in their 2nd years.

What the stats don’t tell is how good of a defensive player each was in their 2nd years. While I did not watch much Paul Millsap in the 2007/2008 season I can assume that he probably would not have been on the court and playing for Jerry Sloan if he did not play defense. I have already pointed out Jones defensive deficiencies in the previous video clip.

Traditionally, players make their largest jumps between year 2 and 3.

If Terrence Jones continues to develop in his 3rd year as much as he developed in his 2nd year, he could very well be all we need at Power Forward. If he continues to develop throughout his career then there is pretty high probability IMO that he turns out to be better than Millsap.

But as I’m sure some are eager to point out, it’s not the 2nd year version of Paul Millsap most people are wanting to trade for, it’s the 2014/2015 version they want. Still, is Millsap good enough to warrant giving up on a player that is 6 years younger, bigger, more athletic and has a very good chance of being just as good as him next season or even better in a couple of seasons? Terrence Jones ceiling is an All-Star (not superstar) caliber player IMO, although he would still be a couple of years away from that if he eventually develops into that caliber of player.

In case we have forgotten, here is a video clip of some of the things that Terrence Jones already does exceptionally well.

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There are 4 things that Terrence Jones needs to be working on this summer:
- His on court awareness, specifically on defense
- Man to Man Defense
- 3 point shooting
- Free Throw Shooting

His court awareness should get better regardless just as he matures as a player. If he works to become a respectable man to man defensive player and if he can increase his 3pt percentage from last season’s .307 to around .330 or .340 then we are set at the Power Forward spot. And for those that think a 22 year old can not improve his 3 point stroke I would suggest telling that to the following players:

Kyle Lower
22 year old 3pt% = .255
Last Season 3pt% = .380

Trevor Ariza
22 year old 3pt% = .278
Last Season 3pt% = .407

Jeremy Lin
22 year old 3pt% = .200
Last Season 3pt% = .358

At 22 years old, Terrence Jones (.307 3pt%) was a better 3pt shooter than all of them.

2. Troy Daniels

Last season, despite leading the NBA in 3pt shooting attempts, the Rockets were a below average 3pt shooting team hitting only .358 percent of their shots. The Rockets best 3pt shooter last season was Chandler Parsons who shot .370. The only other players that had a significant role on the team to finish above the league average of .360 were James Harden at .366 & Patrick Beverly at .361 (Aaron Brooks had a .408 average but was used sparingly and traded at the deadline). Jeremy Lin who was the Rockets most important bench player finished below the league average at .358, no one else on the team was even close. For a team that relies so heavily on the 3pt shot, thats not acceptable.

Troy Daniels, despite only playing in 5 regular season and 4 post season NBA games, might already be an elite 3 point shooter.

Regular Season Per Game Averages:
Minutes – 15
3pt Attempts – 5
3pt Makes – 2.4
3pt Average - .480

Post season Per Game Averages:
Minutes – 17
3pt Attempts – 3.8
3pt Makes – 2
3pt Average - .533

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Of course I have to include this clip from Clutch:

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I know, small sample size, yada yada yada. But what makes me so optimistic about Troy Daniels is the same thing that should make everyone optimistic, what he did in the Regular or Post season with the Rockets is no different than what he did for Rio Grand Valley Vipers which was no different then what he did for VCU in college. His last season at VCU he average .401 while taking almost 9 three point attempts a game. At RGV he averaged .401 while taking almost 13 three point attempts a game. Troy Daniels is not shy about shooting the 3pt shot, as a matter of fact he is an aggressive 3pt shooter.

The league has plenty of guys that can average .400 or better only taking 1 or 2 three point shots a game. How many of those same guys could average .400 or better while taking 9 to 12 three point shots a game?

Based on what Troy Daniels has done his entire basketball life, up to and including the end of last season in the NBA, if he doesn’t launch a ton of 3pt shots while making at least 40% of them I will be shocked. If he does take and make a lot of 3 point shots next season then we will finally have someone that can help limit James Harden’s minutes. The last two seasons, James averaged 38 minutes a game and decent back up. If Troy can give the Rockets 14 to 15 quality minutes while providing a spark he can help limit James minutes to 34 to 35 minutes a game.

3. Defense

Last season the Rockets did not have many good defenders on the team. Chandler Parsons defense went from outstanding in his rookie season to non-existent last season. Omer Asik was an elite defender but he was hurt most of the season. Lin, Parsons, Harden, DMo and Casspi were all average to below average defenders at best, in some cases they were absolutely atrocious on defense. Typically, Patrick Beverly, Omer Asik and Dwight Howard were the only good defenders the Rockets could put on the floor.

The new Rockets that should help the defense immensely this season are Trevor Ariza, Nick Johnson, Joey Dorsey and Jeff Adrien all come to the Rockets with the reputation of being plus defenders. Ariza will be starting and Dorsey, Johnson and Adrien all have a very good chance at being part of the regular rotation.

Imagine throwing out Beverly, Johsnon, Ariza, Adrien and Howard to defend any last second shot. That group would represent a significant defensive upgrade over the group that allowed Damian Lillard to drain that last second 3pt shot against the Rockets in the play-offs.

Additionally, if Daniels can provide the depth at the shooting guard position that the Rockets have desperately needed the last two season, the James Harden might have the ability to expend a little more energy on the defensive end of the floor. And in case anyone has missed it, read the following Clutchfans thread about the improvement of James Hardens defense this summer.

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=257326

While I think Donatas Motiejunas has improved over the last couple of years and has likely cemented himself into the rotation, he still has to show he can play defense with out getting into foul trouble. With Asik gone to the Pelicans it would appear that all of the center minutes belong to him…but there is another.

Joey Dorsey was made fun of when he was shipped out of Houston a few seasons ago because of comments he made about being the basketball version of Ray Lewis, his inability to stay out of foul trouble and the fact that his head was not completely screwed on straight. But make no mistake about it, Joey Dorsey has a lot of athleticism and when he is on the floor, he rebounds at an elite rate as well as plays defense with terminal intensity. This is one of those moves that most people probably roll their eyes at but if Joey has his head on straight and can stay out of foul trouble then he could have the same type of impact on defense that Omer Asik had. I he is a solid addition to the bench.

4. The Offense

Chandler Parsons and Jeremy Lin are sizable hits to the offense, both in the starting unit and the bench. But there are reasons the offense could be better this season over last season. Beverly, Harden, Jones & Howard are just finished their 1st season starting together. James Harden had never played with an elite Center like Dwight Howard until last season. Terrence Jones and Patrick Beverly had never been starters in the NBA until last season. Now they all have a full year playing together I expect a reasonable amount of organic growth.

Terrence Jones is poised to take a major step forward in his carrier as an offensive option. I believe Terrence will step into Chandler’s spot as the 3rd offensive option this season averaging 15 to 17 points per game. If he improves his 3pt stroke from .307 to .330 or more then he becomes exponentially more deadly because he is so good at putting the ball on the floor when opposing Power Forwards try to close out on his jump shot. And opposing Power Forwards will be forced to close out on his 3pt shots if he improves in that area.

I expect Houston’s 3pt shooting to be much improved next season.
- Trevor Ariza as a starter and Troy Daniels off of the bench adds two players that hit over 40% of their treys last season.
- Both Patrick Beverly and James Harden should return to their career 3pt averages or better after below career averages last season.
- The addition of 3pt shooter Isaiah Canaan as the back up point guard

Houston’s 3pt shooting could be among the best in the NBA next season.

I expect Donatas Motiejunas to have a bigger role on the offensive end off of the bench this coming season. He has proven that he has good post moves and can score in the NBA. Much like in Terrence Jones case, Donatas should make his biggest leap forward in development this season since players historically make their biggest improvements between years 2 and 3.

5. The Bench

I think the bench has the ability to be light years better than the bench we had last season.
1. 3rd year DMo will be better than 2nd year DMo.
2. A healthy Joey Dorsey will be better than a grumpy, injured, unmotivated Omer Asik.
3. Jeff Adrien will be a better back up to Ariza than Casspi was to Parsons.
4. I like Daniels, Canaan & Johnson backing up Beverly and Harden as opposed to just Lin. Those guys represent both improved 3pt shooting and improved defense over what we had off of the bench behind Harden and Beverly last season.

I would still like to see one more addition for another 3 and D small forward since Adrien plays more like a power forward on the offensive end. Overall though, I think the bench has some potential scoring punch with Canaan, DMo and Daniels as well as players with extreme defensive reputations.

Summery[/b

Like everyone I am disappointed that we did not sign Chris Bosh and then follow that up with matching Chandler Parsons. But I’m glad that Daryl Morey has not just gone out and started signing used up veterans like Jameer Nelson that have nothing left to offer or a bunch of former high draft picks that never amounted to anything as a reaction to losing out on both Bosh and Parsons in the same weekend. Instead Daryl does what he always does and finds pieces in Europe, D-League etc… that other GM’s did not think of that are infinitely more productive than the recycled non-productive journeymen type of additions that most GM’s do. Having said that I would still covet Ray Allen or Shawn Marion as championship veterans with something still left in the tank.

The Rockets, IMO have improved their bench as well as their starting unit by way of better Defense, better 3 point shooting and at least one draft pick that looks like he is ready to contribute right now.

The team has 3rd year players in DMo, TJones and Beverly that should make some step forward in their games. The addition of Daniels at the shooting guard spot should help regulate Hardens minutes, making him better on both ends of the court.

Plus the Rockets still have use of their 8.4 million Jeremy Lin trade exception and an almost guaranteed lottery draft pick for next summer at their disposal.
Click to expand...
Great Job! Best post I have read since come to this forum. There is analysis, evidence and rational prediction. Thanks a lot!

crash5179 · Aug 8, 2014

With the addition of Kostas, the Rockets bench appears to be very well balanced now. If he is truly a 3 and D type then the Rockets could have a formidable bench this season.

Mr. Clutch · Aug 8, 2014

Don't forget flexibility.

Deckard · Aug 8, 2014

B-Bob said: ↑

Sorry for a non-basketball post, but just a tiny request: since it's clear you're referring to the OP, try not to quote an entire enormously long post. Then the thread is easier for everyone else to navigate. Not a big deal, but just trying to help. Cheers.
Click to expand...

No kidding! There's a "spoiler" thingy at the top right of a reply to a post. It actually says spoiler. Highlight what you want to post about, but don't want filling up your reply, click that spoiler thingy, and it will magically be reduced to a "button" one can click that will say "show spoiler." Click on that and there is all that stuff that took up half a page.

Try it, folks!

steady · Aug 10, 2014

crash5179 said: ↑

After the Rockets misfortune in free agency this summer it took me a while to get over almost having what was most likely the early season favorite for the NBA Championship leading into next season. Prior to that my last memory of the team is the disastrous last second shot by Damien Lillard. So there hasn’t been a ton of inspiration for me this summer.

But now that I have had a chance to process the events of this past summer and analyze what the Rockets look like going forward, without the heavy burden of all the negative emotions I was feeling about the team, I’m excited about the upcoming season and think the Rockets can actually be significantly better with this team than the one that ended last season. Following is a very long write-up summarizing 5 reasons why I think the Rockets could be better than last season.
....
QUOTE]

It's posts like this that keep me coming back to CF.
Click to expand...

sergio · Aug 10, 2014

Sorry had to do it.

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