Nice analysis... I am really upset when I heard JVG is not going away for the iincoming year. Clearly he might get a title with two superstars like tracy and yao, but I still think Rox deserves a better coach...
LOL, what? Add, two guys who have never played an NBA game to the current mix of rejects, no help in the frontcourt, and we're up in 60 win territory? Sorry, but our problems go a lot deeper than that.
True, our bench is not nearly deep enough to make us champions. But DD wasn't talking about championships, he was just predicting 56+ wins. This year, when T-Mac and Yao were both playing, we went 20-10 (or thereabouts, I'm too lazy to look it up). If we had stayed healthy over the entire season, we would have won 55 games. Do you really believe that we wouldn't win one extra game next year if we had a good shooter and a backup PG?
Thanks. I just don't understand the JVG love around here. A rigid coach like him might win you one championship in 10 opportunities, because he knows only one way to coach, and his players have to fit him perfectly. A more flexible coach who knows how to fit himself to his players might go 3 for 10, because it's much easier to adjust one guy (the coach) than 15 guys (the players).
The PHX Suns are far and away the league leaders with 99 possessions per game. The difference between 99 possessions * .973 pts/possession and 99 possessions * 1.026 pts/possession is a whopping 5 points. 99 possessions is a lot. The current Suns are very unique in league history. Again, I find this focus myopic... not to mention you used equal weighting and left off some of the other variables many high-end statisticians use when they include (weighted) blocks and steals to possession stats. All I know (in spite of being a stats-oriented person) is how boring it was for me watching Steve and Cat go ISO vs NBA zones and waiting with baited breath for someone...anyone....to move inside the 3point line while Yao went low block ISO....all under Rudy. What's I find ironic about your viewpoint (Pro-Rudy, Pro-Redick) is that Rudy's big's were distance shooters (Horry, Bullard, Eddie Griffin) and his perimeter players were not one dimensional spot-ups...Cassell, Maxwell, Elie, Drexler...slashers all. All I can say in conclusion about Redick is this. Ray Allen leads the league in 3 points attempts @ 8/game. Rip Hamilton leads the league in 3pt shooting% at just under 45%. If Redick can put up Ray Allen's shots and hit the same % as Hamilton he can score 10.8 ppg. That IMO is not enough to offset his defensive laibilities.
Thank you for adopting a civilized tone, Gater. You are improving. I will answer you point by point below, but first, some remarks. The bottom line is that JVG's defence -- despite all the effort he forces his players to expend on it -- is worse than Rudy's. So why waste that much energy when you can actually get better results on defence by playing it Rudy's way? We may as well save something for the other end of the court. I am particularly concerned that JVG could be drastically shortening Yao's career by forcing him to chase so many guards beyond the defensive arc. All that quick lateral movement has to be hard on the feet of a 300 lb man. My numbers show that Yao is wasting his time doing that; if he didn't do it, the team would actually improve on defence! So why take the risk of ruining Yao's feet for an inferior result? If JVG refuses to acknowlege that, then dump him. Yao's career is more important to the team than JVG's. Correct, an average winning margin of 5 points per game is pretty huge. Last season, the Pistons averaged 3.9. All this means is that the second decimal place in points/possession is important. Think again. Everything is factored into points/possession -- blocks, steals, free throws, everything -- and with the proper weighting too, because points are pretty much the bottom line in this game. The ultimate bottom line, of course, is wins minus losses, but that number tells us little about defence. We don't want JVG's offence, which is dramatically less effective than Rudy's, but we don't have to do it Rudy's way either. You are committing a logical fallacy (the false dilemma). I am anti-JVG, but that doesn't mean I am automaticaly pro-Rudy. There is a whole universe of coaching outside JVG's balding dome. I was using Rudy only as benchmark to show that we can do better than JVG on offence and defence. Who says Redick could only shoot 3's? Can you imagine him shooting behind a punishing Yao screen? With T-Mac also on the court, opposing teams won't be able to swarm JJ the way LSU did. As Neo would say, Whoa!
1 - The hype on Redick is that he will shoot better than 45%, the way he played in college, he should be shooting over 50% because his shots will be open looks. Imagine allen with wide open looks at the basket, his shooting would be through the roof - i see that in redick. 2 - The effect of Redick is that the defense will do less doubling on Yao and Tmac, giving them more shots and therefore the rockets more points.
Exactly. JJ is supposed to be clutch too, when he has an open shot. Add a PG who can shoot (VSpan?) and our offence will be overwhelming. We only need an average defence if our offence is that good. The 2002 Lakers were only 10th in defence, but their offence was 3rd best. That was more than enough to win a championship. And I think our defence will still be better than average, even with Redick on board. I think we will need a better bench to actually contend, but our starting 5 will make some serious noise next season.
