Rockets Big Board Here is version 1.0 of my Rockets big board, based on individual research and conversations with people within the organization and around the league. Several deciding factors go into this ranking — talent, team fit, style of play and head coach Ime Udoka’s influence. 1. Nikola Topić | 6-6 lead guard | 18 years old | Crvena zvezda You won’t see either of Perth’s Alex Sarr or JL Bourg’s Zaccharie Risacher on this list, because I’m projecting them to be the first two names off the board on June 26 and I don’t foresee the Rockets moving up. I’m not saying it’s impossible, I just don’t think that’s going to happen. … Taking Topić also requires a certain line of thinking, understanding last year’s No. 4 pick Amen Thompson is a dynamic playmaker and talent, but is more of a secondary wing half-court creator than a traditional point guard. In this sense, the two could play off each other. 2. Matas Buzelis | 6-9 wing/forward | 19 years old | G League Ignite 3. Stephon Castle | 19 years old | 6-6 wing | Connecticut 4. Donovan Clingan | 20 years old | 7-foot-2 center | Connecticut 5. Reed Sheppard | 20 years old | 6-2 guard | Kentucky I understand the appeal. Sheppard is arguably the best shooter in this draft class and on a Rockets team that is crying out for snipers, this should be an obvious fit, right? Not that simple. For one, I’m not in love with the measurements. Sheppard is 6-foot-2, taller than Holiday, but the latter’s near-6’8 wingspan lends him to solid team defense. Sheppard’s wingspan is 6’2.5, which can get you into trouble, especially if your defensive gambles are unsuccessful. Don’t get me wrong, Sheppard is a smart player with the ball in his hands. He would fit in well in Houston’s second unit, pushing the pace himself or getting the ball ahead to the likes of Cam Whitmore, Thompson and Eason. Sheppard can make the right reads consistently, knows how to relocate off the ball and is a decent enough creator. As said earlier, he would walk in as the best shooter on the roster. There’s a lot to like. I just tend to shy away from undersized guards, especially ones who gamble. There are numerous possessions of Sheppard getting blown by that don’t look great, with his upright posture and poor positioning. I don’t think Sheppard is getting that similar rate of success on steals and blocks in college as he would at the next level, and the minuses in his game might play him off the floor.
4 out of the Rockets top 5 are STURDY @Os Trigonum The de-urbanization of the Rockets draft board is alarming
Sheppard is still the right pick, but I'm starting to hope the brick Castle ends up being the pick because it would be the funniest outcome... and may lead to more top 4 picks.... and hopefully a new GM
The question always comes back to shooting. How well can Topic shoot? Is he going to be above average shooter in the NBA? Any non-shooting PG can't play off each other with Amen unless Amen becomes a good shooter himself.
Is that an official smoke screen to shield Sheppard against others? Would not mind Topic, another Serb. Makes Udoka's playground an international village.
Iko rubs me the wrong way. Feels like the dude has an agenda against the Rockets. Last year he had all those absurd trade scenarios that didn't benefit the Rockets at all.
thanks for posting @J.R. I can see Topic being the BPA with Sarr and Risacher off the board. And my biggest point of optimism with him is the FT% in the 80’s% range. Folks who’ve watched him more closely than I have said his shooting was improving through this year. Honestly that is my biggest concern. If you buy the shooting, Topic is probably BPA at #3 (assuming his injury issues are insignificant). also worth flagging that the Spurs have gone out of their way to put out there that Topic is not high on their board and that they are concerned about his injuries…which means he is the player they are targeting at #4. And if you think about it, it’s very obvious Topic would be a great fit there. But why Buzelis at #2? He wasn’t a good shooter in high school and he wasn’t a good shooter with the ignite. Sure he’s got tools to work with, but there are a lot of raw long projects with tools in this draft. He can block a shot but his overall defense isn’t good. He’s a real project. I think there’s huge bust potential there. I’m not high on either ignite guy but it’s debatable whether he’s even the best prospect on that ignite team.
It will be a disaster them playing off of each other. Add to the fact that he’s injury prone and can’t defend. And none of those top 4 on that list can shoot. I don’t want to hear Ime crying about how shooting is a premium when you keep getting players like that. The Rockets were at the bottom of the league in every offensive category. At some point you have to get someone that can put the ball in the basket or I don’t want to hear anymore crying.
I wouldn’t be mad with Topic and I can see the logic in it. The widely accepted view is that the biggest deficit for the Rockets is shooting, this is false. What the rockets lack the most is a 1A shot creator, because Jalen hasn’t been that. I can also see how some would view shot creation as the biggest determinant for upside in a prospect. In that sense, Topic has a much better chance at becoming a 1A shot creator in the nba than Sheppard, even if that chance is not high. Also if I only looked at the numbers I would be higher on Topic since he shoots closer to 90% from ft and historically that is a good indicator for 3pt ability, but when I look at his form I have no idea what Kelly Iko is talking about because it has a hitch like Markelle Fultz. This is just my personal evaluation of shooting form though and I’m not a shot doctor. If he can become an adequate shooter, the pick and roll game with Sengun would be tempting. I think Topic projects safely as a starting caliber pg, a Goran Dragic as others have said. Sheppard does not have 1A ability, and projects more as a super role player. But just because you are not the primary creator of the team doesn’t mean you can’t be a special player though and impact winning in an elite way, and I just can’t shake the feeling that he is. But with how the Rockets view upside and their need for creation I can see them going with Topic.
I think the way the Rockets see it, they need a 1A guy, right now on the team Sengun, Jalen and maybe and outside chance for Whitmore could become that. But the probability is not high for any of them. And I love Sengun and think he is already allstar caliber, but probability wise he’s more of a #2 kind of player on a championship team. So does drafting Sheppard increase the chance of the team finding an 1A? No. Does drafting Topic? Yes. Even if I think Sheppard has a higher chance of becoming the better impact player, if that makes sense.
Thank you. That's what I've been saying all along. Spurs want him and they're throwing all this smoke screen to bamboozle us.
We already have an A1 shot creator. His name is Sengun. Sengun is the kind of guy who you can just give him the ball and let him create. He just can't shoot from outside. So if you get another shot creator but also questionable from outside, then what's the point? Again, if Topic can shoot from outside, I'm all for getting him. But the thing is, if he could, he likely wouldn't be available at #3.
Those are not my rankings Those are Kelly Iko’s and kinda maybe the Rockets? Kelly really likes Buzelis and has listed him at two in all his prospect rankings. Agree with you, hopefully the Rockets don’t have him two. (Hopefully a repeat of Frank Vogel. No, he didn’t say Vogel would be the coach but insinuated he was a front-runner and super impressive. Now Buzelis is “super impressive” in the interviews and thinks very highly of him.) What are we doing here? Building a team of guys who can’t shoot? We’ll only score 92 but damn it, we held the other team to 89! We can’t score but damn it, we got “dem dawgs”! Dem dawgs on defense! Can’t shoot guard Can’t shoot guard/forward Can’t shoot center So let’s add more guys who can’t shoot and hope and pray they figure that out. Castle! Buzelis! Clingan! Holland! Castle-Amen-Brooks-Tari-Smith … all-dawg-lock-it-down lineup! Topic-Green-Amen-Smith-Sengun … all-can’t-shoot lineup! Amen-Green-Buzelis-Smith-Sengun … all-tall-can’t-shoot lineup! Fred-Green-Smith-Sengun-Clingan … it’s-a-copycat-league-size-wins lineup! (or something like that) Hot take: if Amen isn’t a point guard and can’t shoot (wish in one hand, crap in the other), I’m out. Trade bait. (But but but he does everything else so well!) You can have 6’7 Westbrook. That or he’s coming off the bench. One non-shooter is hard enough. 2? 3? 4? Hope and pray Castle/Topic/Holland learn how to shoot Hope and pray Amen can learn to shoot Hope and pray Sengun can be respectable.
BTW, the smoke screen thing is getting a bit out of hand. If the Spurs say that they don't want someone at #4, then that guy is exact what they want? How do we know whether they are using reverse smoke screen and have us believe that they want that guy? And how do we know that it's not reverse reverse smoke screen... and so forth. It's kind of like the deepfake dilemma. How do you know a fake video is not real and a real one is not fake?
It’s extremely hard for a big man to be your 1A shot creator. Even for Jokic and Embiid, who are obviously the best players on their teams, they still need Murray and Maxey to shoulder shot creation. Sengun is not as good as either of those two, so the creation needed to compliment him has an even higher threshold. Personally I like Sheppard over Topic, but playing Devil’s advocate here, “wouldn’t be available at #3” is all about our own projection of players, otherwise every draft would be perfect and the best player would never be picked below #1, except they almost always do. The projection is for Topic’s ft%, 88% over the last two years, to translate over to 3pt improvement. That would seem like a safe bet, if I was blind and never saw his horrible form, but he may still do it.
