And once again, people, like verse, have overlooked one significant point. One of the rockets two superstars of the future was a ROOKIE. Look at all the other playoff teams, find me one team where their star players werent already established. One might say Indiana, and guess what, they flamed out in the first round. Experience matters and the rockets don't have enough up it in their two leaders. And who can pick up the slack if Yao is tired or struggling right now? Eddie? Cat? Posey? Those are all role players not good enough to carry a team most nights. It's not just about age, its about what parts of the team have experience and what doesn't. Also who outside of glen rice has experienced the playoffs on the roster? Answer: maybe Kelvin Cato, max. Combine an illness to Rudy with a young team with no veteran guidance and a 2nd superstar who is a rookie and you get inconsistency like you saw last year. I do believe the rockets need a 3rd piece, but come on, looking at this objectively its not hard to see why they fell short this year.
DVauthrin: stoudemire was a rookie and zach randolph was a 2nd year player. drew gooden was a key rookie for orlando, as well. so was gordon giricek. how about chauncy billups in detroit? was he established? i don't think so...except for being established as a bust. how about the oh so young richard jefferson? also, troy hudson, while not a rookie, was definitely new to minnesota and was not established. he's definitely not a star, but he is integral to minnesota's success.
According to verse's research (thanks a lot, btw): team - age - yrs exp. Rockets - 26.5 - 4.2 Suns - 26.3 - 4.6 Mavs - 28.4 - 5.6 Lakers - 27.9 - 6.3 Blazers - 29.5 - 6.4 Wolves - 29.1 - 7.1 Jazz - 31.1 - 8.6 Of these teams, the Rockets are the 2nd youngest and the most inexperienced. Other than the Suns, the Rockets are an average of 2.6 years less experienced of the teams. How is youth NOT a factor? Also, we are very similar to the Suns in age and in experience. Is it a coincidence that we and the Suns also have very similar records? Yes, Penny was injured earlier. But so was Rice who pulls our average up quite a bit in both age and experience.
You are not seriously calling amare stoudemire a superstar player are you verse? Marbury and Marion are why phoenix was a playoff team, amare helped but as a role player. Zach Randolph has plenty of help in portland so while he dominated, don't think he didnt have 5 or 6 other vets chipping in. Hudson? come on, he is not a superstar. KG carried that team, and do I see a KG type player yet on the rockets? No. Even so, those wolves have had the same nucleus for years now, and thus have chemistry the rockets are still trying to establish. You still haven't found a team with a rookie as its 2nd best option, and arguably teams best player that was in the playoffs this past year. Also drew gooden and giricek and billups only pass as second options in the leastern conference and of gooden and giricek, why do you think orlando blew that 3-1 lead? because they didnt show up every game. We both know the west dwarfs the east so don't go there, please.
DVauthrin, without amare, the suns DO NOT make the playoffs. that much, i thought, was evident. zach? yes, you're right he did have lots of help. but my point is that he was a young, yet major contributor. hudson? you're right, we don't have a kg type player on the rockets, but my point was that he was new and still contributed. you're right. i haven't. but wouldn't cat mobley be considered our 2nd best option for the season??? i'm not saying he "should have been", because he shouldn't have been. but he was.
You completely missed the point on Amare. The Suns have two established superstars in Marbury and Marion. Amare was the 3rd wheel, a role player who helped immensely. Houston has steve, an emerging superstar in Yao who was a ROOKIE, and mobley as their best options. We have about equal role players, but they have a more developed star cast and marbury and marion have developed a chemistry that yao and steve have not. Even so their stars are more developed than ours, because if I say yao=amare, then you really want to argue marion over mobley? The suns are more experienced and developed than the rockets at this point. Its not a big shock they made the postseason and we didnt after rudy T went down. What I am being reminded of this offseason is how underrated Rudy is here and how much the Rockets needed him at the end of last year. We may not have made the playoffs due to inexperience but the fact rudy got this team to go 43-39 with its talent, in the Western Conference is a good accomplishment believe it or not.
I have one major problem with the "we're young and all we need is more time to develop our talent" theorists... This talent improvement theory has two embedded and interrelated assumptions: 1) Talentwise, the Rockets will overtake 1 of the 8 WC teams currently ahead of them. and 2) None of the 5 teams behind them (SEA, GSW, MEM, DEN, or LAC) will improve talent at a greater rate. From my view, the major fallacy to the "we need more time" logic is that there is something magical about the passage of time which keeps the talent of the 13 other WC teams static while the Rockets talent level is dynamic and rises. So is it next season, the season after or the 2005-06 season when the Rockets.... * learn how to fill lanes on a FB * make good passing decisions on a FB * uptempo the game to play to their supposed strength - youth * start a play before the shot clock is at 12 seconds * run an effective offensive set after a timeout * understand the concept of a 2 for 1 at quarters end * decrease their 24 second shot clock violations * learn the fundamentals of a zone defense * close out quickly on a perimeter shooter * understand defensive rotations * eliminate taking perimeter (heat check) shots early in the clock because these shots can be had at any time * hit the open man IMHO, the major weaknesses of the Rockets are elements of the game which can be learned at 20 or not known at 30. They are not magically learned by the passage of time.
GATER, I thought the "we are young" theory assumed that we are not only young but among the YOUNGEST relative to other teams you mentioned. So the theory goes: Since we are one of the youngest, we have one of the most rooms to improve relative to the other teams.
GATER, I wasn't claiming this team has all the pieces it needs. I agree with most of the NBA experts for various publications who see the rockets as missing a piece and needing veteran leadership. Right now the only night in night out consistent player we have is Steve Francis. Yao can do it in flashes right now, and will get consistent over time, but he has to get stronger and more stamina as of now. Mobley, Posey, Taylor and Eddie can disappear from games just as often as they appear in them. Looking at all the western playoff teams, all have two or more consistent options except maybe Minnesota, Utah and SA But Hudson/Wally=a second option in minny, Utah got its second option from harpring/kirilenko, cheaney, and stockton, and parker, rose and ginobili together equal Duncan's robin. And all of these teams have chemistry and veterans. And the closest team to not having the combination has arguably the most versatile player in the history of the game in KG. My point was after evaluating the teams in the playoffs compared to ours, was I realized we need veteran guidance, more development and quite possibly another piece of the puzzle. I realized we are still rebuilding like it or not, and our team needs a few small changes plus development and time to create chemistry before they become a perennial title contender and playoff team. That was my point all along.
Whatever the case, the Rockets had just enough experience to make 8th seed. It is an excuse. But really, if we had experience, I'd be expecting 5th or 6th seed rather than 8th.
after a night of thinking about it i've come to these conclusions: a) yes we are young (obviously) b) if success comes through experience, we will never make the playoffs over those teams....since they are all more experienced than we are. c) DVauthrin is right. our star players are young and inexperienced. d) if we want to make the playoffs we have to find a way to get maximum production from our two stars (steve & yao), regardless of their age. and that will be the job of the coaching staff.
Easy and DV, The issue I have is when people say this team is too young but then are opposed to making any changes to the roster. You cant have it both ways. Sure this team will gain another year of experience next year, but so will all the other teams ahead of them in the conference. Not to mention, the teams behind the Rockets are improving extremely quickly as well. That being said, since your point is that this team is too young, do you support making changes to the roster and adding the missing pieces? Also, one other point, does anyone actually believe that this team as is will make the playoffs next yr? I really cant see any of the teams ahead of the Rockets dropping out of the playoff race. The only slight possibility is Utah, but if they replace John Stockton with a FA signing of Andre Miller, then they will be right back in. I am not convinced that Karl Malone will turn down the $$ in Utah and the ability to be a #1 scoring option again to have a shot at being the all time leader in pts. I dont think Malone is interested in going Dallas or Sacto where he will be a 3rd or 4th wheel and ride someone's coattails to a ring like Mitch Richmond did.
With this coaching staff no. With a new offense and some position coaches who know how to teach yes. We'd still be lucky to get out of the first round but yes. We need a tough, garbage man type PF who can hit the 10-15 footers when Yao is doubled. We need a pure three point shooter at the 3 spot and enough motion in the O to get him open shots. We need toughness off the bench, not just youthful exuberance. This can be accomplished without moving SF to the 2 spot and trading away Cat. EG, Cato and a sign and trade Posey are worth a PF and a SF, maybe more, maybe not. You use the money left over to bring in a few solid roleplayers to fill out the bench. That and teach Rudy how to run an offense that involves more than throwing the ball at a guy and telling him to find a way to score.
MM, I am not opposed to making roster changes. If Doc Rocket's info is correct, then the management is looking for more veteran presence in the offseason. What I'm trying to argue is that inexperience is not just an excuse. It's a fact. Those who whine about our not making the playoffs keep saying that youth is not an issue but they are never able to dismiss the fact that we are a very young team and that young teams usually don't win a lot. While I don't mind having some changes, I also understand those who advocate patience with our young players. I simply don't have good answers. It all depends on how you see the potentials of these kids. Personally, I'm pretty much giving up on Francis' ever becoming a smart player. Same with Mobley. Yao will eventually be very good. Whether he will ever be a very aggressive guy as we want is another tough question. I still see Griffin's potential. But it all hinges on his motivation. His attitude is fast looking more and more like the old Cato. Scary!
I don't see the points people're making. There's absolutely no excuse for not making the playoff this season or next season. My main reason is if Phoenix can make the playoff, Rox is better than the Suns, therefore, Rox should have made the playoff. One of the problem we have is that: This team has no leadership or a clearly defined roles for every players. We can argue that there's lots of changes this season that the team needs time to grow together. However, as a fan, I'm running out of patience with the organization (coaching & management) that don't seem to learn from their past mistakes. Assuming Rudy coming back, we need: 1. Better offense & defense scheme 2. A leader to emerge 3. A good PG 4. EG live up to his so called "potential"
GATER, I wasn't claiming this team has all the pieces it needs. I agree with most of the NBA experts for various publications who see the rockets as missing a piece and needing veteran leadership. That is an excerpt from my previous post on this subject. I'm in favor of roster moves, but small ones, not blowing up the core of the team. A good offseason to me would be for example, trading mobley and eddie to LAC for Brand, or working out a deal with miami to get their draft pick and brian grant, or getting brent barry(which will be tough to do without involving steve and yao). I'm also in favor of adding guys like Jon Barry, Mourning, PJ Brown, etc. I would also try to entice Philly to trade Snow who is hard nosed defensively and a solid pg, but injury prone. With our second round draft pick take best available shooter/pg if we can, unless a steal is available. I think mobley is a big part of the problems in houston. Steve is at fault too, but in reality its neither's "fault". Its that their games don't co exist well. Now in my ideal world, Boki is my starting 3, JP the 2, with Cat as a super sub as he started his career with. But to be honest, I wouldn't expect Cuttino to accept such a role. And another problem is practically no one of significant PT has made the postseason ever. How do you expect to learn how to win if you don't have any veterans on the team keeping young guys from partying all the time or "living the NBA life"? To be honest, as much as this hurts to say, one player would solve a lot of our problems in the short term. That players name: Karl Malone.
rvpals, et al, doing this research opened my eyes to quite a few things. first, it showed me that there is a definite correlation between the experience of your "star" players and your success rate. steve francis, cat mobley and yao ming are our star players. steve is talented, but not the brightest bball player in the world. cat is the best 6th man in the nba. unfortunately, he's starting. separate, they are talented yet flawed players. together, they are two positive (or negative) charges. yao is our savior. unfortunately, he is only 22 years old and FOTB. he will, however, be the one that leads us to the promised land. not steve, not cat. yao. until he becomes the best player on the rockets, we will be 9 or 8 seeds in the WC. speaking of which, yes, we underachieved this year. we have no excuse for not being better than phoenix. losses to the dregs of the league, uncohesive offensive sets, invisible fast breaks, inconsistent defense and incessant dribbling all were rocket trademarks...and all are a result of very poor coaching. so what's the solution? imo, we do need to be more patient with some of our stars. like i said, yao is going to have to be the one to lead us, and i think he's about 1.5-2 years away from being the MD of the NBA. with him, we must be patient. next, we need to either trade steve francis for vince carter, or enroll him in Smart Basketball 101 classes. damnit, he's frustrating. so much talent and speed, but won't run the court. seriously, i'd give steve a little bit longer (unless vince is available) just to see how he interacts with a more dominant yao ming. it just might improve his game to the point that we all look back at this years from now and laugh... cat must go to the bench in favor of a better shooting, better weakside playing, more efficient, shooting guard. no knock against cat...in fact, i think he'll be his most effective in this capacity. last, we absolutely MUST develop eddie griffin. DO NOT GIVE UP ON THIS KID. he showed improvement this year, despite being 20 years old, appearing to be fighting depression, and being under the influence of narcotics. throughout that, he still put on 15 pounds of muscle, still improved his dribbling (albeit slightly), still improved his post game (albeit slightly), and still played very good weakside defense. does he have flaws? of course! but most college juniors (which is what he really is) do. help eddie, and we ultimately help ourselves because the entire nba knows this kid is talented. he just needs direction and guidance (and probably some counseling). the best thing we can probably do is acquire a short term power forward in exchange for motay & maybe posey + draft pick if necessary (hello antoine walker for 2 years). we'd be out of the big contract and eddie would be, get this, 22 years old! 22 freakin' years old. and yao won't be but 24 years old! a dominant frontcourt at 22 and 24 years old, respectively, is not only unprecedented, but is also the makings of a true dynasty. just be patient... so, yes, we need coaching changes (either in strategy or in personnel). and yes, we need some player changes. but most of all, we need to be patient with yao ming. ming brings the ring. if this staff proves to be incompetent in the areas i have mentioned, they need to be jettisoned. no arguments. but focus on the big picture...the big 7'6" picture. that's where all our hopes will be answered...
I don't believe it, I actually converted verse on this subject . Sorry, man, it's you just said the points I made in my first post in this thread . Anyways, I agree. Eddie needs to be put under some weight training. He is a stringbean. I think bringing in a PJ Brown, Zo, or Malone as a short term answer and mentor for Eddie would be a wise move.
