What if the Astros used Paredes to get a lefty bat AND a temporary 3B as a way of deepening the lineup? Paredes to Reds for J J. Bleday and Eugenio Suarez? Paredes to Brewers for Jake Bauer, and Joey Ortiz (102 w/RC+ since 5/1) Paredes to Twins for Trever Larnach and Royce Lewis? Obviously some of these would need prospects added on one side or the other to equaluze the value. Thoughts? Ideas?
As much as most of us are excited about the players below AA, I'm not sure they should really be off the table in trades this deadline if they're wanting to compete. The risk factor with those sorts of players is still incredibly high, and the MLB team is still built to win in the short term. I don't think I'd be too hesitant to trade Neyens if there's a deal that makes sense. They get a chance to add potential impact minor leaguers 1-2× a year, and with good scouting and player development, you can absorb some of those losses. If they've got a chance to compete in a weak division on a team with Alvarez, Brown, and Peña in their primes (and a still functional Altuve), adding an impact player is probably worth trading 6-7 years of a player who most likely is a 2-3 win player. Their recent draftee Peterson seems like a higher risk version of more or less the same profile. If Dana is really confident one of these guys will be a superstar, obviously hold on to the guy.
This team needs offense more than pitching w.blanco and wesneski returning. we legit have only 3 good hitters lol
Very fair points. I guess for me, the Major League roster has too many holes to viably win a World Series this year. Particularly, dominant starting pitching that can mask holes on offense. Unfortunately, I just don’t see enough prospect capital to plug all of those holes. Sure, if the goal is to make the playoffs- I can see Dana making the moves to accomplish that. Even in a “weak” AL that is wide open, let’s just say they added Skubal and Moniak hypothetically (which would be regarded as a homerun deadline by most) I still wouldn’t feel like this is a World Series winning roster. That’s just my opinion. However, Dana has the chips to set the team up for the next decade potentially if he plays his cards right. I guess I’m saying I’d rather punt on the next half of this season than sacrifice the next few years of competitiveness- especially if they have no plans to extend Pena and Hunter Brown.
It's always all about value. If some team makes an overwhelming offer for Alvarez or Neyens then of course Houston should pull the trigger. But at some point Houston HAS to have a net improvement of their farm system for a season or they are destined to bottom out for several years. As things stand, there is still a chance to thread the needle of fielding competitive teams in 2026-2028 before the prospects currently in the lower levels of their system start reaching the majors to create a new young core that opens a new competitive window. Looking at the players expected to be available at this year's deadline, I don't see anyone that would make me ok with giving up Neyens or Alvarez. Of course as I type this I see that Cincinatti is listening on Hunter Greene, which probably means they'd listen on Elly De La Cruz. And I would definitely give up Neyens or Alvarez for him.
If they can't extend Alvarez, Brown, and Peña, and maybe even if they can, the Major league team is going to take a step back either way. With the thin upper levels, there likely isn't much internal help coming in the time frame that fits the current core. Maybe they can thread the needle and trade some guys that will backfill needs, but the likely reality is that next year's team won't be much better than this year's, and 2028 and 2029 might be significantly worse without home run free agent signings, trades, or unexpected prospect leaps. Even if Neyens, Alvarez, or Hughes develop quickly, they might not be impact players in 2028 to offset the loss of Peña, Paredes and Lambert. It might just be that there isn't a match in value out there, but the current roster construction being what it is, I don't think it's indefensible to push back whatever rebuild is coming for maximizing a chance when you have an MVP caliber hitter and a Cy Young caliber pitcher on the roster. I haven't spent much time thinking about specific players, but I think if Neyens can lead a Skubal package (and he might not be enough to outbid other teams) I think you'd have to give it some consideration.
The fact that we are discussing what we actually need is what makes this team so far off from actually being postseason ready. Do we need offense... yes Do we need pitching... yes Do we need a setup man... yes Do we need an actual owner who gives a ****... yes
3 years is enough time to completely turn over a farm system and big league roster (go look at Houston's 2012 roster/farm vs 2015). So it's reasonable to project that by 2029 the Astros could develop an entirely new group of quality core players, so really the risk is 2027-2028 (2026 is what it is). The current roster doesn't have any really meaningful pending free agents. There are 3 low leverage single inning RP and a backup C who will need to be replaced but those guys are pretty fungible, and other than that everybody else who matters is coming back (plus they're adding back Correa and Walter from the IL). So if they are investing in 2026 then 2027 is likely to be competitive as well; given that Houston should have more money to play with next year, they could even be better in 2027 than they are in 2026. 2028 is where the projection really gets questionable. With Pena, Paredes, Walker, and Lambert gone, there will be quite a few holes, and the farm is rather unlikely to replace those position players by then. However, there should be quite a bit of payroll flexibility, as Correa, Yordan, Altuve, Imai, and Hader are the only guaranteed contracts (totalling just $102M in AAV impact), and only Brown and Diaz should have meaningful arbitration salaries for 2028. So it will be depending on the GM making good value moves in trades and free agency, but it's entirely possible Houston can field a competitive team in 2028 (while also potentially having a top farm system). One other note on 2028 is that the new CBA could potentially include provisions that make it a LOT easier for teams to keep their own free agents, and that could make it so that Pena is stil an Astro on a team friendly contract for that season; that is a significant consideration to me. I am normally fundamentally opposed to half measures in MLB roster building. But this is a unique situation between Houston's existing contractual commitments, the positive momentum in their farm system, and the looming CBA.
Some of these bubble teams might shift the market. Astros get: OF Lars Nootbaar SP Dustin May Cardinals get: P Ethan Pecko P Bryce Mayer OF Ethan Frey Astros get a controllable LH OF who can hit and a rental playoff caliber SP. Cards get 3 of Houston’s top 10 prospects. Roster: SS Pena DH Alvarez 3B Paredes RF Nootbaar 1B Walker LF Wade CF Smith 2B Altuve C Diaz Bench: Allen, Vasquez, Matthews, Trammell SP: Brown, May, Lambert, Imai, Blanco, Wesneski RP: Hader, Abreu, King, Sousa, Okert, Blubaugh, De Los Santos
May (last 3 seasons) is almost a 5 ERA guy and is already at his career high in starts and innings this year. Nootbar is not worth anything- I'd take a flier if he was DFA'd only.
That's not saying much. Why upgrade an OF with more mediocrity. Might as well keep AAA guys coming in.
Nootbar is a slightly above avg hitting LHB OF who's a good defensive OF. What kind of upgrade are you looking for? There are no OF's in AAA that would be upgrades.
Nootbar does nothing to make us contenders and shouldn't be giving away our top prospects for. I'd rather keep the prospects in this scenario. Astros need either an overhaul or an influx of talent that can actually make a difference.
