If you are going to sign old guys you probably need to do it on 1 year deals and probably need a fallback plan if they suck. Goldschmidt would have been a decent play last off season on a 1 year deal. Probably ought to sign the typical free agent for 1 year or 10 years. 10 years is just the cost of doing business for signing a star. 1 year is what the commitment to a non star ought to be. If you prioritize them then instead of adding extra years add extra money or give them a club option year with a decent sized buy out. Goldy signed 1/12.5. Maybe you offer him 2/25 with a club buyout of 3M or a free player buy out.
Agreed, you either go all in on a player you love for the remainder of their prime or you stick to Ks small enough that they can't really hurt you even if the player completely craters. We have chosen the middle road where we pair limited upside with still a fair amount of risk given our unwillingness to eat into the CBT.
That's what the M's did with Palonco. 1 year 7M with vesting option for 26 with a buy out of 750k. That should probably be the going deal for Astros forever more. 2 year contracts with opt out w/ buy out after year 1. That way the player has a higher guarantee, the team has a lower CBT number and there is some upside there if the player has a good year and you like what you saw from him. Buyout probably should be about 25% of the 1 year guarantee- but Seattle got away with 12% I guess.
When can we admit that Altuve to left has failed? Move him back to a platoon of 2b and dh. Cut Rodger’s. Put decenzo in lf and let smith play everyday in rf.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-sign-some-contracts-2025-edition/ Fangraphs article speculates a $105M/6yr extension makes sense for Hunter Brown. That would buy out 3 free agent years and pay him thru his age 32 season. My rough estimate is that he’s on track to make ~$60M total over his 3 arbitration years, so this would be paying him $45M total for 3 free agent years (in addition to replacing his non-guaranteed arbitration years with guaranteed years). I would consider this a relative steal for the Astros and would be shocked if Brown (who is represented by Boras) agreed to it. I think Brown would be asking for something like $100M/4yrs (giving up just 1 yr of free agency), letting him re-enter free agency after his age 30 season, where he could still secure another big long contract. Otherwise, I think it would take a bigger longer deal than Jim Crane would ever consider (something like $220M/9yrs) that would represent the bulk of Brown’s remaining career. Here are extensions I would offer if I were Dana Brown: Cam Smith: $180M/12yrs backloaded with vesting opt outs starting in 2033 Hunter Brown: $140M/5yrs Isaac Paredes: $110M/6yrs Jeremy Pena: $85M/4yrs (no chance he takes it) Framber Valdez: $70M/4yrs (no chance) Yainer Diaz: $55M/5yrs Jake Meyers: $35M/4yrs Bryan Abreu: $25M/3yrs
It will never happen. Whatever problems Altuve brings in LF, he doubles in 2b. It absolutely has not been a failure. His play has not been a problem.
60M is way too high for Arbitration for hunter brown. Think $35M. Max Fried just made 32M in his 3 years of arbitration. I'd expect something like 7M or 8M, 13-14M and then 20M. 35 or 40M way closer than 60M in arb.
Note on arbitration: Unless you win an MVP or something you are not getting to 10M in the first year. 2024 highest 1st year arbitration awards: In the 2024 MLB season, the highest salary awarded to a first-year arbitration-eligible player was $6.9 million, agreed upon by Adolis García This figure stands out as the top among first-time arbitration-eligible players for that year. Other notable first-year arbitration salaries in 2024 included: Taylor Ward (Los Angeles Angels): $4.8 million Alec Bohm (Philadelphia Phillies): $4 million Jonathan India (Cincinnati Reds): $4 million Jazz Chisholm Jr. (Miami Marlins): $2.9 millionDodger Blue 2nd year arbitration awards in 2024: In the 2024 MLB season, the highest salary awarded to a second-year arbitration-eligible player was $12 million, agreed upon by Kyle Tucker of the Houston Astros. Tucker, an All-Star right fielder, secured this amount after a strong 2023 season, making it the top second-year arbitration salary that year. Another notable second-year arbitration salary in 2024 was that of Will Smith, the Los Angeles Dodgers' catcher, who agreed to an $8.55 million deal. This set a new MLB record for a catcher in his second year of arbitration eligibility Mix of 2nd and 3rd years: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Toronto Blue Jays) – $19.9 million Guerrero's salary set a record for a third-year arbitration-eligible player, surpassing previous marks. Framber Valdez (Houston Astros) – $12.1 million Valdez agreed to this salary with the Astros, avoiding arbitration. Kyle Tucker (Houston Astros) – $12 million Tucker and the Astros settled at this figure to avoid arbitration. Anthony Santander (Baltimore Orioles) – $11.7 million Santander agreed to this salary with the Orioles, avoiding arbitration. Christian Walker (Arizona Diamondbacks) – $10.9 million Walker and the Diamondbacks settled at this figure to avoid arbitration. Zac Gallen (Arizona Diamondbacks) – $10.011 million Gallen agreed to this salary with the Diamondbacks, avoiding arbitration. Shane Bieber (Cleveland Guardians) – $10.01 million Bieber and the Guardians settled at this figure to avoid arbitration. Basically- assume that unless you are talking about MVP or CY Young award winning you are likely topping out pretty close to 30-35M in arb unless you are super 2, which is a whole different animal. None of those Astros guys are super 2 (I don't believe). I think if you can't extend Cam Smith it would make a ton of sense to send him down for a month at some point in time (like when Yordan gets back) to steal another year from him and then he'd be super 2.
I’m assuming Brown maintains most of his current production. If he does that he will finish top 5 in Cy Young voting and blow Fried’s arbitration salaries away (not just because of inflation but because he will have much better numbers on his side). Generally players make ~25% of their worth in year 1, 50% in year 2, and 75% in year 3, assuming the maintain a steady production from years 3-5. If Brown is coming off of a 4+ war season and maintains that thru the process my guess is he will make $10M in year 1, $20M in year 2, and $30M in year 3.
Maybe. But that's super aggressive. If you make 30 in arbitration you are way ahead of most of the game- I certainly wouldn't (even if I were the player) pencil in 60M and call that what I would expect to get. I'd view 6/105 that you quoted as equivalent to a 3/70 extension. Which- for a pitcher 3 years ahead of time is not at all bad. Lot of arms get shoved through a wood chipper in a 3.75 year time period which is how long he's got before he can sign a big deal.
I sure hope so man. It's my fear every year that we've seen the last of good Altuve. That will be a sad sad day when it happens. Hopefully it's not already here.
