Spencer and Blanco are in no way locks to be good/great starters this season. Concern is not a crazy thing.
Yeah everybody seems to be assuming Arrighetti is gonna take big step forward and that’s certainly possible but the opposite could also happen. I’m also not certain Hunter Brown is going to be a certified ace.
I have more faith in Brown than I do any other pitcher on the roster. Dunno why, and it's not really grounded in anything tangible, but that's just where I'm at.
I expect Spencer to have his ups and downs based on his skill set. Command is his issue. I think he will be more consistent than last year and they won't let him just take 8 runs on a game but he will still have his bad games.
I think Gusto would be up first. As I recall, Blueblaugh and Gordon are highly regarded AAA. Ulolla maybe more than anyone, but he got. Balky shoulder or something about a week ago in spring training and I haven’t seen an update.
updated for opening day: Framber: bonafide ace Brown: budding ace Blanco: ace for half a season, variance risk Arrighetti: ToR #s last 2 months of 2024, walk risk Wesneski: classic Astros target could blossom McCullers: #2 #s when healthy, big risk but tracking to be back in April Gusto: classic Astros “who?” guy who posts 120 ip and <4.00 era. Blubaugh: I’m high on him and see a possible #2 SP with pretty high floor. Gordon: probably more of a BoR guy but pretty low variance. Ullola: Huge upside. Exactly the kind of guy you want as your 10th SP. Fleury: middling prospect who fits mold of long line of Astros’ surprise int’l arms Pecko: top prospect who could be in Houston midseason given Brown’s pension for moving guys quickly. Walter: sleeper arm who will be in AAA rotation Garcia: #3 #s when healthy, season/career at risk after this last setback Javier: #3 #s, could/should be back by Aug 31. France: BoR arm could be back late in the year. This is more/better depth than they had last season but I still think Lance Lynn would be a good investment. Having their current 5 guys stay healthy and productive for at least April would be huge to give the FO time to evaluate the AAA guys to see who is ready.
Garcia going for a 2nd opinion. Not good. His career is probably over if he needs TJS again before even getting all the way back from the last one.