2025 Rotation

We could definitely be elite but I had similar thoughts last year before the injuries.

 

You have arrighetti too low. He will pitch like an allstar more times than not and we will be comfortable with him as Framber and Brown. it’s why I want to move Framber. I really think we have 8 guys right now you would be happy to start. I like Blubaugh a lot. Garcia is almost 2 years removed from TJ so I expect him to be fine.
LMJ gives us 75 innings.

 

Is it not wise to assume 2-3 starters will go down with season-ending injuries? Or were we unlucky last year?

 

I don't think you can count on LMJ

 

I think the Astros are looking at Weneski either the #4 or 5 pitcher in the rotation.

I think it looks like:

Framber
Hunter
Blanco
Wesneski
Arrighetti

And ready to step in if they get back to form. Javier is a legit #3 guy. Garcia is a legit #4 guy. McCullers if healthy is a #2 level pitcher. But hoping for health is an unknown of how they will come back from major surgery.

Javier
Garcia
McCullers

 

JP France might make it back before Javier.

Wesneski is very young and already has 190 IPs with reasonable results. McCullers and Garcia might not be ready at the start of the season, so Wesneski might get some run early on.

 

Astros have very enviable depth. I believe most of their depth starters are very underrated from Blanco to Kouba. The main difference between 2024 and 2025 is that Houston enters this season with much more talented experienced AAA depth than last season, such that they are much less likely to be in a position to have to call up Blair Henley or Jake Bloss types who are either not ready or not big league caliber.

1. Framber: bonafide ace
2. Brown: budding ace
3. Blanco: ace for half a season, variance risk
4. Arrighetti: ToR #s last 2 months of 2024
5. Garcia: #3 #s when healthy, tracking to be ready for opening day
6. Wesneski: classic Astros target should blossom
7. McCullers: #2 #s when healthy, big risk but for your 7th SP?? Mighty fine.
8. Gusto: classic Astros “who?” guy who posts 120 ip and <4.00 era.
9. Gordon: probably more of a BoR guy but pretty low variance.
10. Javier: #3 #s, could/should be back by Aug 1.
11. Ullola: Huge upside. Exactly the kind of guy you want as your 11th SP.
12. Blubaugh: I’m high on him and see a possible #2 SP with pretty high floor.
13. Kouba: way under the radar but let’s see. Hes still an Org Top 30 prospect.

Their AA rotation also projects to be very very good with some really high upside arms in Pecko, Santos, and Hicks. Houston will not be scrounging like last season and they very well could have a big surplus by the trade deadline if they just get some good health luck.

 

Framber and Hunter are 1-2 or 2-1 if healthy. I see this as beyond debate.

Blanco - anywhere from 3-6. I think he is the most likely to stay healthy and be consistent, but also has the lowest ceiling of all #3 options. I will say that I do not see any scenario where he is moved back to the bullpen.

Arrighetti - highest ceiling outside of maybe Hunter, but hasn't developed consistency yet. If he takes a step up like Hunter did in 2024, he should be #3. If not, he will settle in to the #4-6 spots, but innings increase last year was well managed and he is a huge part If the 2025-2029 rotation, so will not be in the bullpen.

McCullers- Unless multiple guys listed above get hurt, he is the last likely #3 candidate. No doubt he has the talent and history to be the #3. If it weren't for Framber and Brown, he could be the #2. Obviously health is always his issue. Because of this he could have any role from the #3 starter every 5-6 days to a bullpen arm until/unless his body breaks down again.

Garcia - There is no reason he should not be healthy to start the season. He is still only 27 and has shown some great things. There have been reports that he may still have some ceiling left and become a potential #3. Other reports say he could be a really good leverage reliever. We will see where he is put in ST.

Wesneski- Reports are the organization sees him as a starter and targeted him as a priority in the Tucker trade. They could see him as a Charlie Morton, Colin McHugh type candidate where a tweak to his arsenal could make him an effective every 5-6 day starter, or he could be a Brad Peacock type swing man.

Ryan Gusto, Colton Gordon, J.P. France- will be in AAA unless 5 or fewer of the guys above are unable to pitch. They will likely be called up if there is an injury based on availability and the schedule of the AAA rotation.

A.J. Blubaugh - Not on the 40 man, so several guys will need to be hurt/ineffective/traded for him to get his shot in 2025.

That's 11 guys. I think it will beca surprise if all 11 are still in the organization after the trade deadline.

 

Everyone other than Hunter Brown and Framber. I’m projecting the future so I could be wrong- but I love this dudes makeup and think he will maximize, and I think he has plenty of talent to maximize.

 

I will be surprised if all 11 are still on the roster on opening day.

 

Who?

 

What I want in a rotation is:

At least 3 guys who have TOR stuff and can start a playoff game without causing me to chew my fingernails to the nub and chug my Crown Royal straight from the bottle.

At least 2-3 additional guys who are MLB average or close to it and will give the team a reasonable chance to win 75% of the time.

3+ guys (Maybe in AAA, maybe in the bullpen) who can start without notice and not pitch like Blair Henley.

 

The hard part about projecting pitchers is that they're hard to project.

All you can do is look at their stuff and mechanics, the rest of it is in the god's hands.

 

I saw Chandler Rome on a podcast where he said the Astros do not expect Garcia to be ready for the start of the season.

 

Why would you expect any of Garcia, France, Javier or McCullers to be ready for the start of the season?

 

I don't.

The person I responded to did expect Garcia to be healthy to start the season.

 

If Chandler Rome says it then it must be true