Astros get: SP Joe Ryan 3B Carlos Correa $22M Twins get: IF Brice Matthews C Walker Janek SP Miguel Ullola SP Bryce Mayer Thats 3 of Houston’s top 5 prospects plus another from their top 8-15 range. The big thing with Correa is how much money the Twins will eat. But I would love this trade for the Astros.
It’s probably not enough. The Twins could probably get multiple Top 100 MLB prospects for Ryan. Maybe add Ethan Pecko to the package I proposed and it gets closer.
I would not do this ... but ... just Joe Ryan would clean out the Astros prospect list. The Twins I suspect will have to be overwhelmed to trade Ryan.
IMO To have reasonable chance at a World Series championship, a team needs: 1) at least 5 better than average (110+) bats and no more than 1 "weak" bat (89-) playing everyday. 2) good overall defense with limited weak positions, especially up the middle. 3) at least 3 very good and 1 OK but consistent/dependable starting pitchers. 4) at least 4 high level late inning relievers who are not fatigued or slumping. 5) a bench that provides late inning value in areas the starters are deficient in: defense, base running, power, L/R balance, put ball in play, etc. This team has most of those: #1) Pena and Yordan should be back(1 and 2). Altuve is (3). Walker is 111 since 6/1 and 113 the past 6 weeks (4) Paredes and Meyers were both above that level all year - assume they are out. Bonus if either returns. Caratini and Trammell have performed to that level but no guarantee that continues. Smith has potential but hit rookie wall. Melton and/or Matthews could get hot. However this team needs that 5th bat. 2) defense is excellent thtoughout. 3) Framber and Brown (1 and 2). Some combination of Arrighetti, Javier, Garcia, or Walter needs to get healthy and pitch at the level required (3 and 4) another SP for insurance would be nice. 4) The bullpen is very good and at least 5 deep. 5) Melton and/or Matthews bring defense and baserunning. Dubon brings gold glove versatile defense. Trammell adds LH bat. As long as they are not needed to start this is good. Health + 2 bats and 1 SP makes this team a contender. Health alone gives it a chance.
If this happens I will be happy, but surprised. He's a rental and I thought their priority was a guy who would be in rotation next year since Framber is gone. I'm thinking that means the prices are crazier than we thought.
Padres’ Dylan Cease has become a prime trade target for injury-depleted Astros Houston Astros owner Jim Crane fancies star power. San Diego Padres right-hander Dylan Cease is one of the biggest stars available on the trade market. Perhaps it should come as no surprise, then, that Cease is at the top of the Astros’ wish list as the trade deadline nears, according to sources briefed on the team’s discussions. Cease, 29, would stabilize the Astros’ injury-depleted rotation for the rest of the season, and join All-Star right-hander Hunter Brown and left-hander Framber Valdez to give the team a potentially dominant trio in a postseason series. The Astros, while dealing with lingering injuries to designated hitter Yordan Alvarez, All-Star shortstop Jeremy Pena and All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes, also are in the market for a hitter. The names under consideration include Minnesota Twins infielder Willi Castro, Miami Marlins outfielder Jesús Sánchez and Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Jake McCarthy, sources said. But for Crane, an owner who traded twice for Justin Verlander and once for Zack Greinke and tried to acquire Blake Snell and Josh Hader from the Padres during the 2023 deadline, Cease surely is a more interesting target. The challenge for the Astros in acquiring Cease might be finding a suitable match with the Padres, who are only interested in trading the pitcher if they can improve their current major-league roster. Acquiring Cease and the remainder of his $13.75 million salary also would almost assure the Astros will cross the luxury tax for a second consecutive season. This winter, multiple team sources indicated Crane had no interest in paying the tax. Sending setup man Ryan Pressly to the Chicago Cubs in a salary dump and shipping part of Rafael Montero’s bloated contract to the Atlanta Braves confirmed it. General manager Dana Brown acknowledged the Montero move was made for financial flexibility. Crane, however, has been known to buck his precedents for players that can provide meaningful improvement to his major-league team. Trading for Greinke was one example. Perhaps Cease could be another. With a league-leading 17 players on the injured list, the Astros would prefer not to trade young, controllable major leaguers. Yet their farm system, according to The Athletic’s Keith Law, ranks 29th in the league. Cease, who is eligible for free agency at the end of the season, would be a rental. The Astros made a similar trade at last year’s deadline, sending pitcher Jake Bloss, outfielder Joey Loperfido and infielder Will Wagner to the Toronto Blue Jays for left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. At the time, Kikuchi had a 4.75 ERA in 115 2/3 innings. The Astros, who excel at maximizing pitching talent, encouraged Kikuchi to simplify his repertoire, and lean more heavily on his four-seam fastball and slider. Kikuchi had a 2.70 in 10 starts with Houston, then signed a three-year, $63 million free-agent contract with the Los Angeles Angels. Cease, a top-five Cy Young finisher in two of the past three seasons, likely requires less of an overhaul. His 4.79 ERA would be the highest of his career. But his expected ERA is 3.53, and his underlying numbers hint at better performance going forward. At 97.1 mph, Cease’s average fastball velocity ranks in the top 12 percent of the league. His 29.9 strikeout rate is in the top 10 percent, and his highest since 2022, when he was the runner-up for the AL Cy Young. His 9.2 percent walk rate is the second lowest of his career. The Astros expect the returns of right-handers Spencer Arrighetti, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier and J.P. France from lengthy, injury-related absences in August. Arrighetti is the closest of the quartet to a major-league return, perhaps after his minor-league rehab start on Thursday with Triple-A Sugar Land. The production the Astros will receive from each of those pitchers, however, is uncertain. Cease is more of a sure thing. The Astros scouted his start last Wednesday in Miami, when he pitched against another trade candidate, right-hander Sandy Alcantara. Cease that night allowed two runs in five innings. At the moment, the 2025 line on the back of his baseball card isn’t terribly appealing. But Crane’s history suggests the name and track record might be enough
It feels like prices on rentals have consistently crept up for a solid 5-6 years now, and teams like the Padres, Blue Jays, Mariners, etc always end up willingly overpaying to stay in the hunt, which in turn inflates the market even further. It also doesn't help that by adding the third WC spot, the number of true sellers in the market has drastically diminished in any given year. I might be way off with my assertion of which teams over pay, but it's just the gut feeling I get when I see how much teams are willing to pay now vs. just a few years ago.
Pick two LH Bats. W. Castro (IF/LF) B. Lowe (IF) R. O’ Hearn (1B/DH) C. Mullins (OF) J. Duran (OF) S. Kwan (LF)
Cease has 11.64 K/9 and a perfectly reasonable 3.64 FIP He would be great as a #3 in the postseason rotation. Framber, Brown, Arrighetti - Ks are king in the playoffs.
Cease, Castro, and Mullins would be a pretty good deadline. SS Pena 3B Castro LF Altuve DH Alvarez 1B Walker C Caratini RF Smith CF Mullins 2B Matthews Bench: Dubon, Melton, Diaz, Trammell/Meyers SP: Valdez, Brown, Cease, Arrighetti RP: Hader, Abreu, Javier, King, Sousa, Okert, McCullers, Garcia, Gusto Good enough for a chance.
