Willi Castro has a good amount of value and I included him. Correa’s value is very hard to gauge. He is only 30. He has vesting options that project as essentially team options. He had a 4 win season last year and has basically averaged ~4 wins a year over his career even factoring in his injury history. So all that would point to him being worth his remaining contract; if the Twins eat $40M that’s a lot of surplus value.
So, that essentially puts Correa on a 3 year 60M deal and then you have 4 vesting options for 70M that you could make sure he doesn't hit if he's not any good anymore. Correa is your new second baseman throughout the balance of that contract (at least through 2027) at which point in time I'd expect him to move to 1B and take over for Walker in that last year he has guaranteed- 2028- and if he plays well into the future on a year by year basis where you determine if it's worth it for you to run him out there for the next year. Castro is a rental that fills in Nicely at 2B. If SA is who I think he is on the mound this is clearly the best team in the American league this year. It's likely that it would clearly be the best team in 2026 and 2027, if Brown stays healthy and you can develop one more guy into a TOR type. The problem would be that you traded the most likely TOR type in the minors in Ullola. Yeah- I'd do this deal. Of course- I love Carlos Correa, but I think it gives you 3 really good chances at a WS ring in 25-27 and another piece to trade in 2028 if the farm isn't producing guys on an assembly line. At that point in time after 2028 you have Smith, Melton and Dezenzo in the OF potentially, Yordan and Altuve splitting DH/2B/LF duties, Correa probably on first base, and holes to fill the roster at 2B, SS, 3B. Diaz and Yordan would be in Walk years. Hunter Brown would be in a walk year. You'd either be looking at having filled those 3 holes with good young players (and that's the weakest part of our farm) or looking to trade Yordan, Diaz and Brown at the deadline and hoping you get enough from that to really kickstart a reload if the team doesn't look like a contender 7/1/2028 going into the break. I'm fine with trading Ullola- I just am absolutely adamant that if we do so it's a star with Club Control going forward and surplus value- I think this would fit those parameters.
Lol, crap, I totally missed the $40 million part. So yea, I fully agree it's a reasonable offer I still don't think Brown would part with Matthews in a deal for those two. Despite the 3 HR Brice is still a very very risky player when it comes to will he make it or not. But he is Dana's first big bet and at this early early stage it certainly looks like he possibly hit on him. Plus, to keep this run going on and on and on, we desperately need some star level players who aren't making big money and Matthews is one of our best chances to have that Maybe take less money back from Minn, but still enough to keep us under the cap for this year, and offer Ullola Janek Pecko
If it happened the best thing about it would be that the casual fans would go absolutely apeshit with joy and that always makes everything more fun. The hype going into August would be unreal.
Short of having the Twins eat 85%+ of his contract or including both Javier and Christian Walker, there’s no way for the Astros to trade for Correa and stay under the CBT. If you want to keep Matthews and Melton out of the trade, I think you could take out Castro and only have Minnesota eat ~$25M, then the package you listed (Ullola, Janek, Pecko) would make sense to me. I would do that trade but the Twins fans would hate it.
So I might be wrong about how this all works, but my thinking for this year only is this We apparently have about 5.5 million we can add before we go over the tax For the rest of this year Correa should be owed about 12 million, so we would need to shed 6.5 million Chas should be owed about 1.2 so that gets us down to 5.3 Javier's tax number is 12.8 million so he would have roughly 4.5 million left, which would get it under a million dollars What I don't know is how they calculate what Minnesota throws in for CBT purposes. Correa basically has 3.3 guaranteed years left, but I have no clue if what they throw in is spread over those guaranteed years or if it is spread over the balance of the entire contract including the vesting years, which are extremely unlikely to vest
I have a question for my smart salary guys @Nook @Snake Diggit Probably others I missed tagging , no offense How much does paredes injury affect his arbitration numbers ? Does it take into account production over the entire year ? Or rate production ? I'm thinking , considering a Correa trade, that Isaacs injury helps us make it ... Not only do we have a bigger need in the infield this year , but he may also make less money next year . And , you'd definitely have to give up Brice matthews . There's not room for him if we take carlos , as much as I like the kid . Plus we need to give value in the trade somehow . Ullola and Matthews are pretty good prospects at this point . Yadayadayada Astros pitching staff ... It does make me feel a bit better about giving up Ullola . And Brice has a ton of swing and miss in his game . He seems like a good 3 true outcomes guy with decent discipline, but compare him to George springer for a minute and you get a bit less excited because I don't think his tools are on George's level. The real question is do we have the pitching to compete this year ? If we trade for carlos , how does that effect our pitching next year . You need elite pitching to win . Full stop I would love to retain framber . Already unlikely . It would be the most unbelievable outcome ever if we traded for Carlos and managed to keep framber . Idk I have no idea what dana and cranes 2-3 year plan looks like . Pena and yordan are very important to that question and Pena is a question mark this year and yordan , frankly, is a question mark going forward
When a team acquires a player his impact on the CBT calculation is from the average annual value of the remaining contract. For Correa the AAV would be >$30M. You can’t have a team just pay down 1 year.
A bat who can play 3B is more important now than him being LH. Arizona traded Naylor for 2 pitching prospects: #13 that is a 45 FV starter in high A #16 that is a 45 FV lefty in AAA who made 2 appearances in Seattle's bullpen earlier this year. Eugenio Suarez has slightly more value. But only very slightly. Suarez for: #5 Anderson Brito - 45 FV RH in high A who has some reliever risk. #12 A.J. Blubaugh- a 45 FV RH starter who is MLB ready and made debut this season, but having a down year in AAA. #16 Jose Fleury- a 40 FV RH starter who dominated AA but off to a slow start in AAA. He has been passed over by Dana Brown guys and has a similar ceiling to the current "law firm" starters, so is expendable IMO.
Yea I know they can't pay down 1 year But would it be calculated over the 3 1/3 guaranteed years left on the contract, or would it be divided by all 7 years remaining including the vesting years. Cause if it's just the guaranteed years even 20 million knocks it down a lot
I've read a couple of times that Dana sees Brito as a future Ace. He may value him even more than he values Ullola Have also read that Arizona has a much higher price tag on Suarez than they did on Naylor because they feel like they have a better chance of re-signing him if they keep him. I've never understood that from the players point of view, seems like if you really liked a place and wanted to be there, you would be open to being traded for a couple of months so that if you do come back over the winter you would be joining a team with more talent
Didn't Chapman get dealt to the Cubs and returned to the Yankees? Much more risk on the team's side if their asset ends up liking their new destination more and gains familiarity...
Duran has always been a very long shot to me. Last year he had a 9 WAR season...... that is very elite, and this year he is on pace for a 4-5 WAR season and is under team control for three more full seasons. He also is under team control for over three full seasons more.
One final note regarding Correa is that even though overall he's had a down year , his stats are being dragged down by a slow April/march start . If you look at may , june , and July he's averaging a .773 ops (math done by hand , could be wrong) and league average is like .715
George Steinbrenner is in hell rolling in his grave. Adding Ryan McMahon is the last type of deal that the original Steinbrenner would make -- talk about settling for mediocrity.
I'm thinking Brett Baty may be a good option. I hear he's available and Mets looking for MLB ready P, 3B, and CF. Would need to help them in 2025. Ideas?
