I think it is circumstantial. If he goes to a team like the Dodgers or Yankees or another larger budget team, and he finishes the year strong - I could see them picking up his option. Picking up the option is different than extending him - I wouldn't give him a guaranteed 3-5 year deal. I also agree with you that if Robert simply shut down because of being upset he hasn't been traded, or because he cannot deal with losing - then that is very rare and shows a personality flaw. However, there is no doubt that Robert is flawed as a person. He has in the past refused to do a number of things with the White Sox after he labeled them as losers. He has been criticized for sitting out games and also for pulling up on grounders and for not wanting to take outfield practice during long losing streaks (yes this did happen). With him it is just a question of how likely you think that he "turns it on". I have seen similar guys before like Puig and Guillen that were similar but not to this extreme. I live in Chicago and before the game he came over and signed a few things for me - and discussed the White Sox and he made it very clear that he did not want to play for a team that doesn't want to compete. He doesn't really hold back.
Maybe - but I am not ready to assume that yet. He also did not have any of the effort or discipline issues that Abreu had. Strom felt strongly that Abreu would end up a starter and a very good one with the Astros - and then he came to training camp out of shape and not ready to throw or compete. Abreu is dominant in his own right and may well end up being a better pro that Ullola - but Ullola has a lot of pieces, and his fastball is something that he can throw over 50% of the time and guys don't hit it any better the third time through the order, or if it loses a couple of ticks of velocity.
Yeah, maybe "good chance" is a little too aggressive but if he doesn't start throwing more strikes that is where he is going to end up. Like I said, I think even then he could be really valuable for us - just spam the fastball at max effort if it comes to that. I don't want to trade that away for a rental.
I really appreciate the insight into his thinking. And I *love* the Puig comparison - super talented guy with serious personality issues. Of course, Puig was out of MLB at 28 despite being a productive hitter his last season with the Reds/Indians. I can see the Dodgers being a good landing spot for him - they can eat the bloated 2025 salary and could upgrade in the OF from Conforto. Their pocketbook seems endless. I don't see him playing for the Yankees given their crowded OF situation.
Who says no (I would say no if I was the Astros- I suspect Pittsburg would as well Hou: Skenes Cruz Pitt: Smith Melton Matthews Arrighetti Ullola
Pittsburgh cannot trade Skenes. The narrative it would create would lead to a fan revolt they’d never recover from. Either way, they’d say no to that deal.
What if I told you the following outcomes were known (it’s my suspicion as to how it plays out: Smith- all star not MVP Arrighetti- solid 2 starter Ullola- flip a coin- TOR or Closer Matthew/melton- 1 4 or 5 war player, 1 2 or 3 war player (can’t tell you which is which). would you do it then if you were Pittsburg? they have 4 more years to get to playoffs with skenes. They are a loooooong ass way away. They have no fan base. The only way they will get one is if they win. houston could end out trading an ace, a solid pitcher, 2 all stars and a regular for 3 playoff runs with skenes (if he wrecks his elbow) and an average OF that’s pretty flashy.
The more I think about it the more I absolutely sit out the deadline if I’m the Astros. By sit out I don’t mean completely but I mean something like: 1 of our lefties in the bullpen for someone’s RHP 7th inning guy Blubaugh or Gordon for Cedric Mullins. I just love this roster in 2026 and 2027 if either Matthews or melton hits (or if meyers has found a new level for good) and the guys are generally healthy. 2025 we will either get really healthy and have an awesome squad, get half way healthy and have a punchers chance, or not get healthy and have a very slight chance.
Honestly, I’d be surprised if Houston did much at the deadline. Probably an innings eater/serviceable pen arm & LH platoon bat
Dalton answered but when I looked at the stats I was like seems like a bad trade for Arizona but saw comments saying Arizona did well on the trade.
So the first real deadline deal is an elite rental bat for 2 pitching prospects from the 10-20 range on a teams prospect list. We can infer what someone like Ozuna or O’Hearn should cost based on this Naylor trade. Something like AJ Blubaugh and Jose Fleury should be close to enough to net one of those bats.
Which is why people saying we should sit this one out are wrong IMO…the cost for a solid rental bat is not bad
