This whole thread is nothing but degrees of speculation and anyone who doesn’t understand that is gonna have a bad time.
We should be checking in regularly regarding Alcantara The price would still be high for a guy who is struggling, but it has to have dropped a little, and if anyone could make him great it’s the Astros The stuff is there
I see Sullivan and Gomez in the same light. Very gifted athletes that are learning how to become great players on the job. So there's going to be some hit or miss with them, but I believe in their talent.
Boston is another team that looks like they may be fading fast. 2-8 in their last 10 games, losing record against teams under .500 on the season. The Bregman injury combined with Roman Anthony being blocked by their outfield surplus could lead to them moving some guys and becoming “sellers”. Jaren Duran and Wilyer Abreu have both been mentioned as potential pieces who could be moved. Walker Buehler as well.
I’m just kinda skeptical that Houston will look to add an OF now that Melton is up and Meyers is still playing so well. Melton looks good and he’s going to get a long look. Even if Alvarez is out for the season there’s no room for another everyday OF without moving Altuve back to 2B full time. I could see trying to swap McCormick out for a lefty 4th OF, but only if there were serious doubts about Alvarez coming back or Melton panning out. If Houston adds a position player I think it’ll be a 2B and there’s a narrow fit where somebody like Lux or Lowe or Donovan make sense, but as time passes and the offense plays better I’m starting to doubt if they add a bat at all. I think the focus will be on adding an effective veteran SP with the lowest injury risk possible. Mitch Keller, Zac Gallen, and Andrew Heaney fit that bill.
I think you have Pecko and Fleury each one tier too low (as far as how the Astros I think have been said to think about them) but I’m guessing obviously.
Maybe we should trade Yordan . He's only gonna keep getting injuries. What do you think we could get back in return ? Hypothetically speaking
There’s really no precedent for trading a player in Yordan’s situation: one of the top 5 hitters in all of baseball with 3+ years of control remaining. That’s further complicated by his recent injury. So I would place the odds of Yordan being traded somewhere between 0.0% and 1%. But if he was traded, it would be one of the biggest trades in recent MLB history. Very rough guess he has about $150M in surplus value. If I were Dana Brown and thru some strange turn of events decided I was going to trade Yordan, I would call the Padres, Dodgers, Cubs, Phillies, and Tigers, and ask for their top 4 prospects plus 2 prospects of my choosing from outside their org top 10. So something like: Padres get: DH Yordan Alvarez $18M Astros get: C Ethan Salas SS Leo De Vries P Kash Mayfield P Boston Bateman IF Deivid Coronel IF Rodman Verdugo
If they trade Alcantara, who will be under club control for two more years - he's going to bring back a gigantic package. Kikuchi landed three prospects: he was 33 with an expiring contract and a career era of nearly 5. ~$38M for ~2 months + two more years of Alcantara is a deal countless teams will line up for.
Bud buddy of mine was saying pirates should trade Skenes. I don’t think there’s enough prospect capital anywhere, basically to trade him anywhere with l 5.5 years of quality club control but it would be interesting to see. I almost think if they were going to do that they’d have to trade for someone with some established major leaguers to add some value that could then be flipped (in addition to prospects of course). I feel like if Yordan were actually traded to one of those teams that might sort of have to happen too for the astros.
Further thought experiment… what if the astros were trading Yordan to the Astros- what would your return look like? I’m thinking Cam, Melton, Ullola, Matthews and pecko- or something like that.
It basically never makes sense to trade a superstar (MLB top 20 position player or top 10 pitcher) with more than 1 year of control remaining; there’s just not enough consolidated prospect value available. The 1st Juan Soto trade is the closest thing I can think of. They essentially got the Padres top 4 prospects. It’s just too hard to find a match.
Nowhere near enough. If another team had Yordan, I would expect Houston to have to give up Smith, Melton, Matthews, Arrighetti, Ullola, and Janek. Those first 4 (Smith, Arrighetti, Melton, Matthews) would be non-negotiable, the others you might be able to sub out lesser (but still high ceiling) prospects.
