Probably a better place to discuss Blubaugh for now. First real look at him. His stuff looks fine, but his command of his breaking pitches was atrocious. I don't know if this was just an off day for him or a regular issue. I'm guessing/hoping the former.
He struck out over 30% of the batters he faced and only walked 5%. Those are great signs. He gave up a homer that killed any chance he had of a good outcome. He did a poor job of generating weak contact and ground balls and had some bad luck with the defense behind him. The xfip for that game was 3.32, so with normal luck and defense he would have had a lot better outcome. He didn’t have a homer problem in the minors so for now I think we can consider that a blip, and I expect much better results in future big league appearances.
I spent some time looking through individual stats last night and hitting stats in all four full-season teams are shockingly bad. Almost to the point that they are unbelievable. It literally looks like Luhnow just spent a full season selling off all the marketable position players to do a tear down. All that is needed now is to trade away all the pitching above A ball for very high ceiling-low floor short season prospects to begin a full system rebuild. Altuve began his career as the only viable player on a team made up of rookies and placeholders and it is looking like he could end his career in exactly the same way. Man I really do not want to go through that again.
Gomez was hurt but is healthy now. Baez I think was on the development list, but is now active, so I’m not sure what’s going on with him.
The numbers are bad but there are some mitigating factors: Strikeout rates are up across all of the minors, not just the Astros teams. Not sure if that’s just an early season thing with pitchers being ahead of the hitters or what. Half of the Astros’ “good” prospects are either hurt or just returning from injury. The Astros have been fairly aggressive with their best prospects so many of them are playing a level higher than they’d probably be with other orgs. If you cut slack for guys that are clearly battling some kind of injury (Janek, Melton, Gomez, Cole), and keep the context of 2 of their 4 best prospects graduating (Smith, Dezenzo) and so many top guys being out (Baez, Ochoa, Leon, with Kevin Alvarez in the DSL), it’s a lot less disappointing. Jancel Villarroel is having a nice season and his stock is rising. Brice Matthews is hitting well. Shay Whitcomb is having a nice season to solidify himself as a legit potential everyday caliber big leaguer. Joseph Sullivan is crushing High A (albeit with a troubling k rate). Chase Jaworsky is playing in a league with guys mostly 2 years older than him. Aside from Jaworsky, every good prospect is either hitting well, in the majors, playing hurt, or not playing at all. The position player side of the farm is below average, but I don’t think it’s as bleak as the minor league stats make it seem. Let’s check back in mid June and see how different things look.
What exactly was “exposed”? He showed elite ability to get whiffs and limit walks. He gave up too many of hard hit balls but how could you look at his minor league performance and predict that?
Blubaugh might have had some jitters in his first MLB game. Let's wait 5-10 more starts before ... ok ... who a I fooling? ... this is a sports BBS ... off with his head Was this just just a one-off start? Or will someone else get sent down when McCuller gets called up?
Why wouldn't you want to go through 4-5 terrible years if if meant being great for a decade and winning multiple championships? I never thought of you as an instant gratification guy.
As you know, my expectations are often based on personal ideas rather than just stats. Sometimes it works out and sometimes it doesn't.
Age 20 season in A ball: Player A: 11.5% bb, 14.6% k, .173 ISO, .296/.385/.469, 140 wRC+, .45 SB/G Player B: 7.6% bb, 11.3% k, .137 ISO, .308/.364/.445, 135 wRC+, .41 SB/G Player A is Jancel Villarroel so far this season. Player B is Jose Altuve in 2010.
And you dont believe in leaving it better for your grandkids so that they get to watch a dynasty too?
I was not discouraged. His stuff plays. He needs to throw fewer pitches in the zone. Miller/Murphy should be very good at that. Overall numbers look worse than they should due to bad luck on a few specific plays. I really like the fact that he came back and did not get down. He dominated all 4 hitters after the grand slam ( that had a .090 expected AVG and was only a HR in 4 parks) I look forward to him getting another start later in the year.
Checking in on how the position players from Dana Brown’s first 2 Astros drafts are doing: Name Level wRC+ Brice Matthews AAA 112 Cam Fisher High A 59 Chase Jaworsky High A 59 Ryan Johnson AA 106 (IL) Jeron Williams AA DNP (IL) Austin Deming AA -54 (IL) Nehomar Ochoa A DNP (IL) Anthony Huezo FCL DNP Garret Guillmette High A 86 Will Bush High A 107 Pascanel Ferreras AA 84 Walker Janek High A 83 Caden Powell A 109 Joseph Sullivan High A 156 Jason Schiavone A 107 Bryce Boettcher FCL DNP Drew Vogel High A 111 Ethan Wagner FCL DNP
Not overly impressive at this point but some of those players are very young - and really he only needs one of them to "hit". Brice Matthew has been playing a lot better after a slow start to the season - another couple weeks hot and there will be more talk of bringing him up. He is starting to cut his strikeouts down and if the increased walks holds up, he will be looking really good. I never understood the Walker Janek pick, I am guessing they hoped he would develop power, but I don't consider him much of a prospect personally.
I’m still in wait-and-see on all of them except maybe Cam Fisher. Pretty clear he’s not a pro-level player which is a bust for a 4th rounder.
