Nah they’ll go on a little run from June to August. Won’t make trades for the future at the deadline with the chance of being in the chase and then crap the bed in August-September end up around .500. Seems about the way it’ll go.
Assuming the Astros keep sucking, this is the list of things I think the front office should do: Trade Kyle Tucker. He’d be the most valuable player available and could single handedly improve the farm system from terrible to average. The Dodgers, Cubs, Phillies, and Brewers are the teams that seem to be fits based on need and farm depth. I’d hope to get 3 of a teams top 6 prospects, with at least one of those being major league ready. Pitch Verlander enough innings to get his option to vest. Even if he’s not as effective as he was from 2017-2022, with the Mets paying half his option he still represents a good value. Shop Framber Valdez, Ryan Pressly, Rafael Montero, and Jose Urquidy, all with high prices. If a team is going to overpay, then cash in. Framber’s price should be comparable to what they ask for Tucker. Play Singleton, Meyers, and Loperfido everyday. These are 3 high upside players under cheap long term control and it’s important to see if they can be core pieces. Hope for Bregman to accept a QO. At this pace he is not on a path to get even $100M guaranteed, much less $200m. Bringing him back for $20M/1yr works for both sides as it gives Bregman a chance to hit the market with rebounded value and without the burden of a QO attached, and it gives Houston another year to find his replacement, which they clearly don’t have internally yet, unless they want to roll with Dubon as their everyday 3B. Hope for health/rebounds in SP. The 2025-2026 outlook improves dramatically with healthy, productive 2nd halves from Garcia, McCullers, and Hunter Brown. Find a manager with better luck/skills. Hope for positive developments on the farm. The farm lacks elite prospects but there’s a large group of 2nd/3rd tier guys who could be core pieces if the take a big step forward; the Astros need some good fortune in that regard. Trading Tucker is a tough pill to swallow and it’s unlikely to be something Jim Crane signs off on, but it’s the one move that could course correct the organization’s talent trajectory almost entirely on its own. If they don’t like the quality they see from the OF (Loperfido, McCormick, Meyers, Leon, Cabbage, maybe Melton or Corona) over the 2nd half, and still feel like they can contend in 2025, they can go sign somebody like Conforto. C: Diaz, Caratini IF: Altuve, Singleton, Pena, Dubon, maybe Bregman, maybe an elite prospect received in exchange for Tucker OF: Alvarez, Loperfido, McCormick, Meyers, Cabbage, maybe Melton or Leon, maybe a prospect received in exchange for Tucker SP: Verlander, Valdez, Javier, Garcia, McCullers, Blanco, Urquidy, Arrighetti, Brown, maybe Blubaugh, maybe a prospect received in exchange for Tucker RP: Hader, Pressly, Abreu, Montero, Martinez, Scott, Dubin Just hard for me to believe there’s not enough talent there for a contending team.
Piggybacking off Snake with some numbers put into the roster for payroll considerations, and what I’d take for return on trades to reset salary this year- which I think probably matters somewhat to Crane. Tucker needs to fetch a top 20 and two top 100’s. The second someone gives in to that number is the second I pull the trigger. Framber is a top 50, top 100 and an organizational top 10 prospect. I’d trade Bregman and Graveman for nothing (packaged together- if someone would do that at the deadline if Bregman wakes up). Brown and Abreu for nothing. Salary relief on Abreu, Brown is the carrot that gets that done. Presley for a couple 45 grade prospects. That resets the Astros CBT payroll to something like 185M-well under the tax line. It also sheds a bunch of payroll for next year. 2025 team/payroll: JV, Javier, LMJ, Urquidy, Garcia, Blanco, Arrighetti- 57M Bullpen- Hader, Montero, Abreu, Martinez, Scott, Dubin- 40M Diaz, Caratini, singleton, Altuve, Pena, Dubon-45M OF/ Yordan, Chas, Meyers, Loperfido- 22M FICA and other stuff- 25M Total payroll- 190M That gives us like 40M to spend on upgrades at 1B, 3B and OF. Also- you’d have some pretty good prospects from Tucker and Framber deals- with no prospects coming back from moving Bregman, Presley or Brown, as that would be lumped in with salary relief with Graveman and Abreu being sent out. JV gets to 135 IP for option to vest Meyers, Loperfido and Singleton play every day to see what they have and if they can be counted on or must be upgraded. Arrighetti gets 125 innings for the same reason.
I’m cool with all that except I think selling low on Hunter Brown just to dump Abreu’s salary would be really dumb.
There is ZERO chance you see Brown moved just to save what’s left on Abreu Brown is the type of high upside guy we should be seeking in any potential sell off deals
If we cant contend for a WS trophy, I'd like to see them go total rebuild. Merely wildcard contenders doesn't do it for me. As long as Crane thinks we got one more title run in us, he wont do anything too major. Even if we miss the playoffs entirely, he will probably write it off as aberrant and go all in next year. Only if next year plays out badly will he think about a rebuild IMO.
All this chicken little, sky is falling stuff is funny to me on May 8. Y'all are quick to bail on a team that's made 7 straight ALCS and won two titles. Offense will correct itself, bullpen too, and SP is getting healthier.
JV is too old to waste his time playing for a loser. If we can not trade him to a legit contender he would retire on a negotiated settlement.
Total re-build is idiotic. Re-sign Tucker for whatever it takes. You don’t throw away a core of Altuve, Tucker, Alvarez, Diaz, Pena with guys like Leon, Melton, Loperfido, etc. coming up. Idiotic.
I like the majority of this. I think trading Bregman to ditch Graveman's salary is terrible. It's off the books in 2025 anyway and 2024 doesn't matter (in this scenario). Bregman HAS to bring back something whether it's a QO draft pick or a couple of lottery tickets. Brown still has too much potential to be used to just jettison salary but maybe pair Meyers with Abreu and some cash so they can give Leon an audition the rest of the year. Bottom line is if there is no chance to compete in 2024 then: 1) Bregman- use him to improve the chances of starting a new window whether that's trading him for prospects or collecting a QO draft pick. 2) trade Tucker and/or Framber only if the return is something exceptional. If 2025 is **** too then treat them like Bregman. 3) identify every prospect/unproven guys who have legitimate MLB average or better ceilings (and close enough to be ready) and play them. Give as many of them as possible experience. Then when the season ends determine who is a part of the 2025 Astros and who is not and build the 40 man roster accordingly. Those who don't make the cut get traded for depth/insurance players of equal value at weak positions like SP or corner infield. Example: I can see Brown determine that Pedro Leon is a legitimate CF/RF but Kenni Gomez and Luis Baez is the future (2027?) at those positions. They also still have Melton. So trade Barber, Fisher, and/or Corona for equivalent SP or 3B prospects.
I'm all for moving Bregs, Meyers and Valdez, JC if things are looking bleak at the deadline. I would probably sign Tucker long term. Get young pitching back in trade and continue to develop the pitching that's already in the system. There are already a couple of good pitching prospects in AA-AAA. The offense hasn't been good. However the pitching has been the biggest issue. I'm not for a total tear down, but significant changes need to be made. I'm not sure Brown is the guy to make these changes because I'm not sure he's got Crane's ear. The GM needs to be a Luhnow type GM, one that is strong in analytics and most importantly has the best Cuban, Dominican, Venezuelan scouts in the world. This is why I hope Crane brings back Sig and let's him run the org like Luhnow ran the org. No more Bags, Reggie etc... Do I think this will happen? Not a chance in ladies, Crane's ego won't let it happen.
I don’t know that it’s selling low on Brown anymore. looked at another way- would you give him a 4.5 year 50M contract today? That’s how much the combined value of what he’d make through the end of his club control years and Abreu would make for the balance of his contract is. Some teams would- I’m no longer sure we should be one of those teams but YMMV.
Although I think that’s probably most likely- if they don’t start correcting themselves like right damn now it will be too late.
I don't care very much about QO- I think that is the thing fans overrate more than anything else in all of baseball. Getting off Bregman & Graveman's salary re-set our tax and should allow us to spend more next offseason. I mean, if you can get rid of Montero with Bregman instead of Graveman that's great too. Hell- maybe Bregman and Presley for a 50 grade and a couple 45 grade prospects I guess is fine. But that's only 34M on the LT books- which doesn't get us underneath the tax line. You can't pay taxes on this team and win 74 games.
