Amaya was a decent prospect, he was the Marlins’ 6th best prospect going into last season per fangraphs. Good middle infielder with a contact oriented approach. Lacks power and speed so he kind of flamed out in AAA. But he’s only 25 and looks like a solid AAAA SS; actually kind of seems similar to Dubon when Houston traded for him. Bellozo was another non-bonus intl pitcher who had success in the lower minors. I don’t think he features premium velo but not sure what his strengths are. He is not anywhere on Houston’s prospect lists fwiw.
Astros 2023 RISP was 3.55 runners left in scoring position per game which ranked 18 out of 30 MLB clubs. RISP early in 2024 is 3.89 currently 23rd. As frustrating as that sounds, the worst MLB team in RISP in 2023 was the LA Dodgers at 3.78 while the best was The Yankees at 3.02. Looking at the yearly RISP rankings, it’s difficult to know how to correlate this stat to success when you see teams in the top 10 like The Orioles, Rays, & Braves side-by-side with the likes of Oakland, ChiSox, & Colorado while also seeing franchises like Texas, Dodgers, Philly, Toronto ranked bottom third. Just some thoughts on using RISP as a metric for correlating success
There's many factors but percentage of stranded RISP seems the best metric. You have to get RISP before they can be stranded. - total RISP - total scored RISP - OPS RISP - RISP thrown out Combining those factors (possibly more) likely reflects the best RISP production.
To be fair, in the post-game interview, JV didn't sound too worried. Of course, I guess he has to say that. But still.
The Astros are 2nd in homers and leading MLB in solo homers. They are hitting XBHs...just not when they need them.
I think Alavarez at the 2 slot is a failure. He's our best extra base guy. You want as many people on base as possible. With Pena showing some life this season, I can totally see him batting in the 2 slot if he keeps this going. Obviously "not the beginning of the season" Bregman would also be good at 2 once he gets his head out his ass in the summer. Alvarez should be batting 3rd or 4th with 3 guys that can get on base in front of him.
Really only a first inning problem though. Yordan has had instances this year with guys on base... just like he's had throughout his career. If those numbers are still relatively even (RISP/PA), then its all about how many more AB's he can get in the #2 spot, banking on his phenomenal RC/AB stat. Now Bregman has historically been great with RISP with his selectiveness and low K numbers. Not sure how much better than Yordan, but Espada is using some fans' logic on where he bats (vs. using simply getting Yordan more AB logic by batting him 2nd). I would predict that as long as the 1-5 are the Astros "best" hitters... it really doesn't matter as much where you put them, just like lefty-lefty doesn't matter as much agasint Yordan/Tucker, and yet managers will still bring in the lefty to face them.
Its also almost as if some pitchers may have different choices on pitch-type or location when there are runners on base, vs. when there aren't. The Astros have actually faced some decent pitching this year. I know it sounds trivial to give the other team credit... but sluggers everywhere beef up their numbers on mistakes and bad pitchers, not by getting production on pitchers' pitches or by always hitting against quality pitchers (minus Bregmans' playoff exploits).
I'm not aware of a pitcher that is skilled enough to force an opposing team to score less per homer than the Astros are currently. I'm sure there probably are some relievers that did it last year in small samples, but over any decent sample size, no pitcher is close to good enough at run/homer suppression that is currently plaguing the Astros. You can have whatever theories you want, but going forward, the Astros will score more than 2.64 runs/homer against the top 10 pitchers in baseball this season (i.e., the Astros are just having incredibly bad luck).
It doesn't help that our 2, 4, and 6 hitters were total no shows for the first 6 games of the season.
Looking at it more from the pitchers side... as there is a tendency for pitch selection/location to be variable based on the situation (runners on base, score, etc.). JV giving up a ton of solo HR's in a year where he wins the CYA would be a potential example. I agree... the Astros have certainly been unlucky in the majority of close games this season.
What would you have said if I told you Blanco would be solely responsible for two thirds of our wins and Abreu, Pressley and Hader were responsible for about half our losses 10 games into the season before the season started.
