Didn't realize there was not a thread for this yet. The 2024 MLB Draft will take place July 14-16. Anyways, the Astros have the 28th pick in the 2024 MLB Draft and the latest company mock (from Jim Callis) has them taking Sam Houston State catcher Walker Janek. Spoiler If he was in charge of the Astros draft, Peter Flaherty from Baseball America would pick Braylon Doughty, a RHP from Chaparral High School in Temecula, California. The actual BA Mock has them taking Tennessee 3B Billy Amick. https://www.mlb.com/video/2024-draft-billy-amick-3b With $5,914,700, the Astros will have the smallest bonus pool. That's because they forfeited their 2nd-round pick after signing Josh Hader. Round 1, Pick 28: $3,132,500 Round 3, Pick 101: $724,800 Round 4, Pick 131: $541,100 Round 5, Pick 163: $396,200 Round 6, Pick 193: $307,600 Round 7, Pick 223: $242,400 Round 8, Pick 253: $203,500 Round 9, Pick 283: $187,800 Round 10, Pick 313: $178,800
It’ll be interesting to see how Houston approaches this draft with such a small pool. When they were in a similar situation in 2020 and 2021 they went well overslot with their earliest pick then had a lot of senior signs. I could certainly see Houston doing that and drafting someone like Wyatt Sanford or Slade Caldwell if they were available. Alternatively I could see them going well under slot with their 1st pick and trying to draft 3-5 guys who demand $700k-$900k, in the Chase Jaworsky mold. If they play it straight, guys I think they’d be looking at in the 1st round along with Janek: OF Vance Honeycutt OF Dakota Jordan OF Carson Benge
Need a good draft this year. Didn’t like the last two first round picks by Brown in Gilbert and the Nebraska shortstop. Both were low ceiling guys that never even projected to be all star caliber players.
Matthews was not a low ceiling pick at all. He is a very high ceiling player with power and speed and defensive upside. He has been hurt most of this season so far so it is far too early to judge him.
Gilbert was drafted by James Click, last year was Dana Brown's first draft and he chose Brice Matthews
The Athletic (Keith Law) had them drafting C Malcolm Moore from Stanford. He also noted Brown tried to scout a high school game that featured hitters Caleb Bonemer and Dante Nori but it got rained out. Law thinks Astros needs help sooner rather than later so that's why he went with a college player. Could change though, this was the first edition. Assuming he does another updated one in the future.
2023 potential Astros first rounder. LHP, Cam Caminiti, Saguaro HS (AZ) 3B, Cam Smith, Florida State RHP/OF, Carson Benge, Oklahoma State
I think the biggest factor will be that they basically get one pick in the first three rounds. If there's a mid 3rd round guy they really like, the first round pick is their only shot at him. My best guess is a Korey Lee/Brice Matthews type of late blooming athletic collegiate hitter paired with an overslot high schooler in the mid rounds. I think Brown may be more willing to gamble on lower tier high schoolers than previous GMs, but I'm not sure they'll have the resources to get too creative this draft.
No idea who any of these guys are, but I’m expecting us to go with someone with a couple of wow tools rather than high floor guy. The days of drafting Korey Lee and Drew Gilbert in the first round are over.
Hard to care too much about these mocks when you are drafting later in the 1st round and MLB has a massive variance in player evaluations and need isn't a high priority. Crazy though it is the 3rd straight 28th pick for us. Prominent 28th picks: Gerrit Cole - NYY, didn't sign but they eventually got their man after another decade and $300M Colby Rasmus Charles Johnson Rickey Gutierrez - The terrible former Astros SS that suddenly could hit with the Cubs, but still sucked at playing SS. Lee Smith Really, not a lot of quality there, but we'll have high expectations for some reason.
The more I see/read on Dakota Jordan the more excited I get about Houston picking him. He has serious elite bat speed and athleticism. His dings (striking out on breaking balls and defensive shortcomings) could very well be related to experience, having been dividing his time between football and baseball until his sophomore year of college. He is the type that could see significant improvement on pitch recognition and fielding instincts, in which case he could be a monster. I think his median 30th percentile outcome would be a Corey Julks level player, with his 70th percentile outcome being a borderline star and his 90th percentile outcome being a total superstar.
I may be wrong, but I'm gonna guess there's some really good players, every year, who were drafted after 28th.
Of course there are. It's just there isn't a big hit rate on any individual pick by that time in the draft.
