If they fill those needs like you suggested their win total should improve from 2024 by 3-5 wins IMHO. They have the resources to make these improvements. I would bet that one of Matthews/Melton/Baez breaks out by 2026. Looking at your 2026 and 2027 FA list, they haven't lost much. I'm thinking takes over for Pena at SS and there's not another FA on that list that's not easily replaceable. Gotta keep adding pitching to the minors and 4-5 prospects a year to the minors. This is Dana what Dana was hired for and lets hope he's the man for the job.
The perception too was that the Atlanta front office was good at locking down their current talent with team friendly deals. Hopefully he can work some of that magic, too, on some of our current group.
I agree that trading Tucker and Valdez or even Alvarez means the end of the dynasty. That dynasty ended last season, when the Astros failed to win a single playoff game. However those trades could be the beginning of another dynasty if they are not wasted on high cost established players. It is time to make the Astros great again.
They could run it back as is add a couple of long term pieces in FA/Trade while keeping Tucker/Framber and still keep the dynasty alive. Say you add Lowe Robert/Conforto to the current lineup, you could compete next year and into the future because in the 2025 offseason you would have Tucker/Framber/Abreu/Montero's money to fill in holes. Plus, you most likely will have Matthews/Melton/Baez/Blubaugh/Ullola ready by the start of the 2026 season, if not the all star break in 2025.
As an old guy I can assure you, Dynasties are not built around a bunch of old guys. A desperate grab at one last season will likely fail and can only impede the infusion of youth that must eventually come. Sadly it probably will have to play out for a season and the value of our trade pieces will be unrealized.
What do you consider an old guy? Example, I wouldn't consider Lowe to be an old guy. Nor would I consider Robert or Comforto old guys. Would you consider Bregs or Adames to be old guys?
For the purposes of this discussion I would say that if a player has been around long enough to become a free agent he is an old guy. Many of them are perfectly serviceable but if I am looking for a dynasty I would want a core of very young (19 to 24 year old) players. This winter we have the trade pieces along with the minor league players on the way to build such a core very quickly. Next winter most of them will be gone and a one year reset will become a five year rebuild. As an actual old guy I am actuarially unlikely to see the results of another long rebuild, which would make me a grumpy old guy.
“Team of young guys” is the strategy that the As have been running for years. It also serves the purpose of saving cheap owners money. For every Corbin Carroll, there’s dozens of JAGs. Rate of prospect to star conversion in MLB isn’t like the NBA. Tearing it down serves one purpose, which is losing more in the short term. As for creating a dynasty, there are two current “dynasties” in baseball. One just won the title, and the other one is the one y’all want to dismantle.
The Astros are not magically going to enter another dynasty phase by trading away Tucker etc... it may extend the window a few years down the road but even that is iffy. The Astros are supposedly weighing the likelihood of success in 2025 with the possibility of reloading in 2026 and going forward. I don't see them passing up 2025 once everything is weighed - I expect them to do what they were planning when the season ended - attempt to find a home for Pressly that he will accept, look to move Caratini if they find a target for his money - and make additions in free agency and likely at least one decent sized trade. As for 2026 and beyond - you worry about that when you get there, and you consider the payroll and development of the younger players in the organization.
We have different visions and as long as the Stros have the pitching that's capable of winning championships they should fill in the holes in FA/Trades. Of course I see a players prime yrs as 27-32 0r 33.
This is good news and if done correctly, along with development of guys like Matthews/Melton/Baez means the org should be in good shape for years to come. In 2025 I could see Dana extending Framber, letting Tucker walk and trading for a star level player using Tucker's money. Also they should have money to add one more bat in FA/trade with Abreu/Montro etc... coming off of the books.
Makes sense. Apparently they were after Travis D'Arnaud before he signed with the Angels. I wonder if they would prefer to go after Diaz again instead of Lowe. Obviously Caratini isn't enough for Diaz so they would need to add more. Or maybe they can work out a bigger trade for both Diaz and Lowe.
How would a Wilyer Abreu for Framber trade match up? I know Boston is looking for SP and wants to add RH hitting to its lineup which would require trading one of their lefty bats. Abreu is the most likely. He fits as a middle of the order hitter vs RHP but struggles vs LHP which lines up with Astros weaknesses/strengths. He can platoon in LF w/ Chas this year and take over in RF in 2026. As for trade value, is Framber enough, or would the Astros need to throw in a notable prospect?
