In the last three weeks all of baseball found offense. Bregman is back. Guerro is back. Machado is back. Pretty much all of baseball. Pitchers scratching their heads. One to think on.
Well that is the issue - at what cost. That is the situation with Alonso as well.... the Mets want a prospect price that isn't reasonable because they see him as a 45 homer a year guy and not a 3 month rental. The Astros were hoping to give up a useful young guy for him and then let him leave. Vlad Guerrero is thought of by fans as the #1 prospect in baseball, son of a freakishly talented HOFer and someone that almost won an MVP at like 20 years old. He hasn't been that guy the last 3-4 years. He has been more good than great, and he is no longer a viable 3rd baseman. So - what is he REALLY worth? Especially when you consider that he is under control for one more year, but that is at a likely 30 million. The Astros will have to pay a premium because there is still that upside that he could explode and carry them for a post season or next year - plus the Mariners are likely going to be in on him as well.
That's big issue I see with a Vlad trade. The realistic likelihood of what he will be(consistently solid but not spectacular) versus the upside of what he could or should be is pretty stark. There's no way somebody won't overpay for the dream, I'd rather that not be us.
This is the same with every other team as well so not sure what you are trying to prove here? Not only are you facing the best teams, you are only seeing their best arms in the playoffs. Of course they are going to be below their season averages. I would bet the drop off is even more significant for other teams/players (e.g. Aaron Judge). The fact we have that many players (Yordan, Altuve and Pena) that have been that good is a huge advantage.
Yandy Diaz or Isaac Paredes would be nice at the right cost. Diaz is having a down year, but has been a Gurriel type player in the past. Candelario would likely not cost that much and is likely an upgrade. Keep in mind that Baez is moving up the minor league pipeline and the more he fills out - the more he looks like a 1st baseman long term.
That is a concern - I know the Mariners for instance are interested. The position Vlad plays will limit his market some, but I am sure there will be another team or two that are out there. What Brown and Crane have in common is that they both have a flair for wanting the eye-popping tools/names/talent and that is likely part of why they get along. So for that reason it isn't a shocker that the owner that green lit a trade for Bryce Harper and got really angry that his prior GM (Click) did not go get guys at the deadline, now wants Guerrero after signing Hader. We will see - but there are at least some possible names out there with Alonso (possibly), Diaz, Candelario, Rooker and Guerrero. I know that the Astros have spoken to the Jays about Gausman and Guerrero - I wouldn't be shocked if the Astros were to offer Melton and others for a deal for those two players, with the Astros in a separate deal sending out salary.
Crane/Dana should be all in on Vlad. He's young, he's got another year after this one. He's going to hit .290 with 25-30 homers, maybe more when batting between Yordan and Tucker. It's not like he's not hitting the ball hard and the Crawford boxes come into play. I would give up Ullola/Taylor/Loperfido/Melton for Vlad, knowing that this would make the Stros the WS favorite for the next two year.
It's not a dream, the talent is there and the Crawford boxes/batting between Yordan/Tucker will bring out Vkad's talent. Montero should be included in any trade to offset cost. No risk, no reward.
I'd do that and I really like Ullola. LIke- in a heartbeat I'd do that. I don't think that's nearly painful enough on the Astros end. Like- Replace Arrighetti with Hunter Brown level painful.
It is a tough balancing act. On one hand the Astros do not want to sacrifice too much of their future - but on the other hand, the goal is to win titles and if this Astros group is good enough, they need to try and maximize this team. Guerrero would certainly make the Astros line up look nastier - Altuve/Bregman/Tucker/Guerrero/Alvarez/Diaz/Meyers/Pena/McCormick is about as nasty as you will ever find..... plus you aren't going to have Verlander, Valdez, Bregman and Tucker that much longer - so maybe you pay the price to compete for another title. Abreu was closer to 40 than 30 when the Astros signed him as a free agent. He just got old. As for Guerrero, the Astros would have him the rest of this season and all of the next year as well. I don't think that Abreu failing means that it would or would not be a mistake to look at Guerrero. It all comes down to cost - but I will say that the opportunity cost of having guys like Bregman, Tucker, Valdez maximized is worth a whole lot.
The only prospects I would have off limits are Bloss, Matthews, Baez and Ullola. The Jays can have two out of: Melton, Dezenzo, Loperfido, Cole and Blubaugh.... but if I am the Astros, I want Guerrero and Yimi Garcia.
Guerrero/Gausman makes a ton of sense if Houston doesn’t think Verlander’s option will vest and knows they will not re-sign Tucker. Guerrero and Gausmans salaries would keep them from being out of range of Houston’s farm to trade for. If Houston did that, in addition to letting Verlander go, they’d likely need to dump both Montero (this year) and Pressly (if his option vests) to make the finances work, and even then, they’d prolly want Toronto to chip in some money. But adding Vlad to this lineup and Gausman to stabilize the rotation would be sick.
I wouldn’t really have any prospects off limits, but I would place a very high value on Melton, Matthews, and Leon. There are other good prospects (Baez, Bloss, Dezenzo, Blubaugh, Ullola) but I think I would value them the same as other teams. I would also be willing to part with Loperfido and Arrighetti for the right return.
Deadline kill shot hypothetical: Astros get: 1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. SP Kevin Gausman RP Yimi Garcia $10M (2024) $10M (2025) Blue Jays get: OF Joey Loperfido OF Jacob Melton P Spencer Arrighetti P Miguel Ullola RP Rafael Montero
While the Astros miss Luhnow - one advantage they have with Brown as their GM, is that there is no GM that is better and scouting and projecting big league production than Brown. So if Brown is willing to move some higher end minor leaguers for talent like Guerrero or Robert or Gausman, I will support him because he knows his team talent....... look at the Verlander deal for example, or the deals the Braves made trading minor leaguers when he was in charge of scouting. Personally I don't think that Melton is the Astros top prospect at this point - I think that Bloss, Matthews and Ullola have separated themselves. Matthews has shown really strong skills across the board after coming back from injury - Bloss has seen his stuff and performance improve and looks like he has a better than 50% chance to be a #2-3 starter for the next 5-6 years... and Ullola may be the most impressive of the three, because he is improved control away from being a high end starter for the Astros - and he is still young. Melton and Dezenzo and Loperfido all are promising prospects, but they are not quite in that class IMO. Baez is really coming along well - but he seems to be more good than great.
I would have Bloss, Matthews, Ullola and Baez off the table for guys with 1.5 years left unless they are an ace.... Now, if we are taking about guys with 2.5 or more years of service time left, then the gate is wide open.
Dezenzo is in that class. He showed greatly developing strike zone recognition and zone contact % before his injury to go with his crazy EVs. Small sample size post injury, but he is a real prospect.
Got bored so decided to check out a few other star hitters: Judge 170 vs 108 Betts 141 vs 90 Machado 122 vs 92
