See this, again!? Snake Diggit is weeks ahead.. while everyone else is playing checkers, Snake D is playing chess.
If you're having Jose Abreu PTSD, that's understandable. But Guerrero's peripherals all look promising. He still hits the ball *very* hard - his xSLG of .530 is higher than Yordan's, and 16th-best in MLB. His average exit velocity is 94.9; in his breakout season ('21), it was 95.1. (Previous two years, it's been below 93.) His Statcast page is full of red bars (that's a good thing) and he's on pace for a 4.0 oWAR. Honestly, his biggest issues are that he doesn't hit enough of the hard-hit balls in the air and he's chasing more bad pitches than he used to (though, he's so good, he's still *hitting* those chases - it's just harder to barrel-up pitches outside your zone). I wonder if putting him between Tucker and Yordan might force pitchers to make more mistakes he can punish. And the dude still absolutely *punishes* mistakes. The guy is 25 & the Astros would control him for at least 1.5 years. I don't know if I'd sell the farm for him - but he'd be a tremendous get, IMO.
Ha! This trade starts to make a LOT more sense if Houston thinks Verlander is going to be hurt long term and won’t reach 140 innings. It also lets them include a SP like Bloss or Arrighetti as a headliner since Gausman would slot in the rotation. It is worth noting that Click presided over the Astros 2020-2022 drafts, so prospects/players he’d likely recommend Toronto acquiring would be Arrighetti, Loperfido, Gordon, Blubaugh, Melton, Cole, Dezenzo, and Dombroski. If I were to re-do that hypothetical I would say: Astros get: 1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. SP Kevin Gausman RP Nate Pearson $6M (2024) $6M (2025) Blue Jays get: P Spencer Arrighetti OF Joey Loperfido 3B Zach Dezenzo P AJ Blubaugh Astros would be well over the 2nd tax this year, although they might be able to get under by trading away Montero. Next year, assuming Verlander’s option didn’t vest and they traded prospects with Montero to shed his salary this deadline, they’d probably be looking to shed Pressly’s salary to get under the 2nd tax by opening day.
Abreu was 37 yrs old with signs of decline. Vlad doesn't have this profile. If it's money that is bothering you, Vlad is signed up for this year and next year. Since it's almost a given that Bregs is going to walk in FA the money from Bregs can be used to pay Vlad. If they decide to keep Bregs and let Tucker walk then Tuckers money can pay for Vlad. If they decide to keep both Tucker/Bregs then JV's contract isn't going to vest and that money can be used to pay Vlad. If you have an issue trading prospects, prospects are made to supplement the MLB club. So unless there's a Bregs/Tucker type in the minors (There's not) you shouldn't be against trading prospects. Look I'm a huge Loperfido fan, I have been since last year, but trading him for a proven bat like Vlad's should be on the table. The franchise is in a win now mode and prospects are just that, prospects. Also if the can hold onto Matthews/Baez/Dezenzo/Blubaugh and Bloss then everybody else should be on the table for trades.
Instead of a big trade like this, what do you think it would take to trade for just Vlad? What do you think it would take to trade for Bassitt and Vlad? I'm thinking, Melton, Blubaugh, Loperfido, Ullola/Whitley.
I do agree that to get Vlad, the Astros are likely to have to overpay. That said, this team needs another 120 OPS+/wRC+ type of bat in the middle of the lineup. Vlad is 25, not 87 like Abreu and it's a much shorter commitment. Vlad still hasn't hit his prime and has a career 131 OPS+ and has been 115+ every year since his rookie season as a 20 year old. Even then he was 106. Players w/250 PA and >120 OPS+ by season. 2017: 7 2018: 2 2019: 7 2020: (93 PA) 3 2021: 5 2022: 5 2023: 6 2024: (123 PA) 3 In this ALCS+ run the team has had 5 or more players w/ 120 or better OPS+, except for the 2 weakest teams - 2018 and 2020.
For just Vlad and with Toronto not eating any money, I would say any 2 of: Leon, Loperfido, Baez, Ullola, or Blubaugh. If they demand one of Arrighetti, Melton, Bloss, Dezenzo, or Matthews, then it needs to be close to a 1-for-1, with Houston maybe throwing in an interesting arm from further down the list (like Whitley); if Toronto is willing to eat salary then they can talk about one of those 5 plus one of the other 5.
I have nothing against trades. When you have a need and can fill it with a trade it is often the best solution. I just dislike this particular idea. We are already paying out the nose for a first baseman that we sent packing and adding another expensive player at that position seems foolish to me. I haven't even looked at the numbers but feel safe in guessing that between the two of them the Astros would be paying between 40/50 mill a year. That seems very excessive for an average or less first baseman with a better than average power bat. If for some unforeseen reason he does not work out as well as expected our position this year is unchanged and next year is disastrous. I do not like to see too many all bat players on one team. Fielding is an important part of the equation and without balance hitting gains you nothing.
I would gladly give up Melton/Leon. Unfortunately Dana will probably have to give up a pitcher or 2. Ullola/Tamarez. To get a talent like Vlad I would grit my teeth and do the deal. They're going to need a talent like Vlad next year after Bregs walks.
This is the price that has to be paid for the Abreu screwup. The money will be there when Bregs walks and Vlad's bat will really be needed next year. His bat would be a difference maker this year. Is Vlad really that bad at fielding?
This is why tacking a third year on the Abreu deal - at his age - was such a poor decision. To answer your question: Vlad would cost ~$6M for the final two months + the sunk cost of Abreu. Next year, Val is arb-eligible. I would estimate $23M+, up to possibly $30M. So, yeah - fair point: it's a nearly-$50M investment in the position. Again... that third year... But I would hope the Astros view the Abreu cost as sunk and won't factor it into their '25 planning.
I agree that the sole reason of the farm is to augment the MLB Club. Michael Papierski may be the only prospect traded for a postion player on active roster, I think. For the active roster pitchers, is any of them on a contract traded to the Astros besides Verlander who cost Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford? I think Chas, Meyers, Tucker, Pena, Alvarez, Loperfido, Valdez, Brown, Blanco, and Abreu among guys still under initial club control greatly outweigh Papierski, Gilbert, and Clifford's contribution (i.e., Verlander and Dubon). Edit: I am completely for burning down the farm for helping the current team, but that is only because the current team is great based on mostly home grown talent.
