1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

  2. LIVE WATCH EVENT
    Will Reed Sheppard continue his torrid play in Summer League? Join us as the Rockets take on Ron Holland and the Pistons at 5:30pm CT!

    Rockets vs. Pistons - LIVE!

2024 Hypothetical Astros Trades Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Snake Diggit, Apr 23, 2024.

  1. htownrox1

    htownrox1 Member

    Joined:
    Nov 9, 2009
    Messages:
    7,518
    Likes Received:
    4,906
    The writing is on the wall. This is a valid thread. I’m up for some trades if it means a quick rebuild back into contention.
     
  2. panamamyers

    panamamyers Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2000
    Messages:
    1,374
    Likes Received:
    1,290
    Rot takes awhile to set in. The day Luhnow left, we were set on this trajectory.
    The remnants of Luhnow are still paying off four years later. He signed Blanco for crying out loud.
    Julio Robaina and Brayan de Paula looking good in Corpus. Both picked up by Luhnow.

    You can't just replace a generational genius at GM with a three headed monster of Bagwell, Jackson and Crane sorting through the backs of baseball cards
     
  3. whiskeyred

    whiskeyred Member

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,366
    Likes Received:
    4,535
    I was also wondering if some might also start to “demand” a trade
     
    astros123 likes this.
  4. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2012
    Messages:
    11,875
    Likes Received:
    16,557
    Verlander is the only player I could even imagine doing that.
     
    The Beard, astros123 and whiskeyred like this.
  5. the shark

    the shark Member

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2010
    Messages:
    4,742
    Likes Received:
    4,081
    You're entitled to your opinion, however saying "the odds are against them" when there's still 138 games to play (.85 % of the season) seems to be jumping the gun.
     
  6. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2012
    Messages:
    11,875
    Likes Received:
    16,557
    I’m only referencing the statistics published by a reputable website which shows the % chance of the Astros making the playoffs based on decades of historical data and tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of simulations. It’s not really my opinion.
     
    astros123 likes this.
  7. the shark

    the shark Member

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2010
    Messages:
    4,742
    Likes Received:
    4,081
    Understood. Just think it's way too early. I think we're all in agreement that we hope they turn things around (and soon).
     
    Snake Diggit likes this.
  8. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 1999
    Messages:
    24,316
    Likes Received:
    14,420
    FanGraphs has the odds at a smidge below 50% of making the playoffs based on the current format which has only 1 year of precedence, the hole the Astros have dug themselves, and the strength of the Astros and their opponents. It is definitely an opinion that one is looking at throwing in the towel on the current odds of the Astros making the playoffs. Maybe there are some odds out there that are a little less, but 5.5 games is not an unsurmountable climb for a team with as many good players as the Astros.
     
  9. Astrodome

    Astrodome Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2015
    Messages:
    11,513
    Likes Received:
    12,765
    It's so weird that we have a tad bit better postseason odds as the 16-8 Yankees currently on BBREF. We just need to go on a 3 week hot streak.

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-playoff-odds.shtml

    MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2024-04-23. This page does not update during the postseason.
     
  10. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2012
    Messages:
    11,875
    Likes Received:
    16,557
    The fangraphs % is the reflection of 20,000 simulations based on an algorithm using criteria established from analyzing decades of data. You can call it opinion, as you could for any statistic involving a selected sample used to generate a forecasted number, but to me that’s picking nits.

    There’s no meaningful difference to me between “48% chance” and “5.5 games is not an insurmountable climb…”. I haven’t said anything about Houston throwing in the towel now. I said it was looking like a lost season, which it is based on their actual record and current odds. Season wins futures betting odds are closed, but the Astros Vegas odds to win the division have fallen below both Seattle and Texas, which would align logically with fangraphs playoff percentage number.

    I wasn’t necessarily making a prediction that Houston will miss the playoffs, just pointing out that their performance has been bad enough that missing the playoffs has now become more likely than not, as way to justify beginning to discuss the topic of the Astros being deadline sellers.
     
    #30 Snake Diggit, Apr 24, 2024
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2024
  11. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2021
    Messages:
    6,061
    Likes Received:
    7,076
    By the 40 game mark, 25% of the season, the team must have most of the issues behind them or else start thinking about 2025.

    By then, Framber could be back and a timetable for Urquidy's return.

    Abreu could be gone, on IL, or firmly on the bench as less than 25% starter.

    Most hitting slumps could be in the rearview mirror.

    "The big 3" can stack good appearances over several games.

    Let's see what 3 weeks brings us.
     
  12. Major

    Major Member

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 1999
    Messages:
    41,446
    Likes Received:
    15,886
    It's weird that you consider a team that's being given the 4th best odds to win the World Series right now by betting markets (behind the Dodgers, Braves, and Yankees) to be "looking like a lost season" in April.
     
  13. Major

    Major Member

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 1999
    Messages:
    41,446
    Likes Received:
    15,886
    The 2019 Nationals won the World Series and were 16-24 at the 40 game mark and had just lost 6 of their last 8 games - I suspect they are glad they didn't give up on their season at that point. The 2021 Braves were 19-21. I don't think either team "had most of their issues behind them" at that point. The Braves went 20-20 over their next 40 games, for example. The Rangers never fixed their bullpen issues all of last season and won the WS as the last team into the playoffs.

    All you have to do is stay close enough in the race to make a run in August and September.
     
  14. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2021
    Messages:
    6,061
    Likes Received:
    7,076
    Can't argue with that logic.

    Except you reference 3 of the literally hundreds of teams in that situation.

    At that point the odds are significantly stacked against a championship.
     
    astros123 likes this.
  15. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2012
    Messages:
    11,875
    Likes Received:
    16,557
    I’m surprised that line hasn’t moved more. That’s certainly a reason for hope. In that spirit, and for the purpose of getting the thread back on topic, here is a hypothetical trade for Houston to make if they are still in contention at the deadline:

    Astros get:
    IF Luis Arraez
    IF Jake Burger

    Marlins get:
    OF Kenedy Corona
    RHP AJ Blubaugh
    OF Pedro Leon
    IF Will Wagner
     
    #35 Snake Diggit, Apr 24, 2024
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2024
  16. Htown Stros

    Htown Stros Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2015
    Messages:
    3,681
    Likes Received:
    4,187
    There’s absolutely zero chance the Yankees take on that much payroll, while already in the luxury tax, for a bunch of crap.
     
  17. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2012
    Messages:
    11,875
    Likes Received:
    16,557
    It’s definitely the least realistic of everything I posted, and the one I thought about the least. There’s probably a big variance in surplus value for all those pitchers. Montero has looked roughly worth his contract so far this year, Pressly has terrible top line numbers but his underlying numbers still look good, and Urquidy has been hurt. It’s possible that those 3 guys will have enough surplus value to offset all but $10M of Abreu’s contract. But I agree it’s probably unlikely; I’m not sure about what the Yankees self imposed payroll limitations might be, but they could technically afford it.
     
    astros123 likes this.
  18. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2012
    Messages:
    11,875
    Likes Received:
    16,557
    Potential trade fits:

    Bregman: Cubs, Mets, Brewers

    Tucker: Dodgers, Phillies, Blue Jays, Padres, Brewers

    Verlander/Valdez: Orioles, Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, Mets
     
  19. Tuckmose

    Tuckmose Member

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2022
    Messages:
    1,979
    Likes Received:
    3,311
    The Astros were very lucky to win in 2022, one title was enough for Crane to turn into the Jerry Jones of Baseball.
     
  20. The Beard

    The Beard Member

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2012
    Messages:
    10,882
    Likes Received:
    6,266
    Internally maybe

    But there is no chance they move any of our top players until the deadline, even if the results stay terrible

    Crane wouldn't let Brown tear it down at the 40 game mark, or the 80 game mark for that matter
     

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now