I believe 10 years is a long time between having drafted the last true impact player (definition: somebody worthy of a star contract after abritration years). This transcends 3 GM regimes and there have been drafts both before and after the penalty years. Also still tracking the guys they traded away… glad none of them have gone Yordan/Diaz on anybody, but they were drafted by the Astros. Not to say they’ve certainly had guys who can stick in the big leagues and have success here/there (Pena, Chas). And I believe they do get guys ready to transition to the big leagues as good as anybody. They’re just not getting that high ceiling/coveted guy via the draft for whatever the reason. Maybe this is the norm for most teams. Maybe this is just the universe course correction after hitting on all those guys earlier (also not the norm). Maybe this discussion is more a reflection of the 2025 Astros needing something more interesting to talk about!
Picking at the back of the draft without a bajillion dollars to spend (like some teams) makes it more than a LOT harder. I will say, the ******* Dodgers do an excellent job of drafting and developing talent.
That makes sense. I do think it’s the norm for good/contending teams to go long stretches without drafting a star position player (defining star on your terms). For our part I think the main difference is how we define a “star” player, which like you said is completely subjective. Seems like you’re defining it as a player who ends up signing a $100M+ free agent contract, whereas I would loosely define it as a player who puts up 20+ fwar during their controlled years. Theres a significant difference there (e.g. I think Pena has a chance to be labeled a ‘star’ by my definition if he slightly improves and stays healthy for the next 3 years, since he’s currently at 8.9 career fwar, even though I would be shocked if he ever signed a 9 figure contract).
I consider drafting a GG level SS an impact player. Drafting players that other orgs want to trade for so that impact players can be added through trades should count for a lot. But you're right it's been awhile since the system has produced a star level everyday player. Fortunately Smith/Dezenzo/Matthews look to be eventual everyday possible star level players. I'm really high on Gomez being the man in 2- 3 yrs.
For real, though. I've yet to check it out. Is it an app or a url? Also... What you're gonna wanna do is go ahead and eat my shorts for accusing me of outsourcing my retarnatious combobulatorae, the moronopidity of which is exceeded only by your imbecidal claim that AI could ever in its wildest dream jaculate such paragoliphic cosminfinifecaflacinfertilism. You, sir, are a dickwadian numbnutician! Unless I'm wrong, in which case I need to ask chat gpt for some of that blotter...
So will Arrighetti, I strongly believe. If Pena has even one season with a .750 OPS, which is not out of reach as he approaches his peak years, that would be 115 OPS+. That plus a GG-caliber defense will easily net him a $100M+ contract after arbitration.
You’re probably right. I said above that I’d be shocked if Pena signed for $100M but I was wrong to say that. If Pena has 3 more slightly better years than the ones he’s had, he will enter free agency profiling pretty comparable to Willy Adames, who just got $182M/7yrs, though Pena will be a year older. Still, a $150M/6yrs deal is very much achievable for him.
I'm right with you there. As a matter of fact, if asked to compile a list of things on which I've never been higher, hard pressed would I be to recall me {or any at all, as it were} one greater than the imminence of Sir Spinster's Precipitous Ascent. :::enter Slam Smith, stage right field:::
One quick one before opening day: Astros get: RP John Schreiber OF Asbel Gonzalez Royals get: OF Chas McCormick This move makes room for both Smith and Dezenzo on the roster and gets a solid 7th inning arm. Royals are trying to contend and have a really bad OF. KC has Erceg, Harvey, Stratton, and Estevez at the back of their bullpen with Lynch, Long, and Zerpa locked into lower leverage roles, so they can afford to lose Schreiber.
Tigers also make sense as a destination for McCormick, as they have had 3 OF suffer long term injuries: Tigers get: OF Chas McCormick PTBNL Astros get: P Matt Manning
I would consider Alvarez and Brown guys who are either worthy of or will be worthy of star-level contracts for which the first organization they played with was the Astros in the last 10 years. Granted, that's not enough to build a championship team and both of those were in the Luhnow tenure. Luckily, the Astros are still living off of having a wealth of previously acquired home grown talent at the MLB level. I think Click was overly criticized for how he handled the MLB club, but not sure the Astros drafted/signed an IFA under his tenure that meets the impact criteria. Brown is TBD. Astros are very fortunate to get Diaz. Hopefully, Cam Smith ends up being just as good.
Doubtful. Unless Meyers hits, they're going to need someone to play CF when he's lifted for a PH and/or they may need defensive replacements for Altuve and/or Smith. Dubon can't be two places at once. Overall, the Astros have had a nice offseason - but failing to land a legitimate corner outfielder feels like a swing & miss. I'd much rather Cam play his natural position, with Paredes at 2B, and a good RF.
If Dana wanted to do this he could. 3B Cam/2B Parades/RF Dezenzo, he chose not to do what you wanted. Biggest thing is finding a CF that can play a good defensive CF and hit above the Mendoza line, particularly against good pitching. I'm thinking what they are really missing is a really good 7th inning arm. A dominant bullpen would coverup a lot of warts. If none of the guys workout to be the 7th inning guy, then I could definitely see this being a deadline add. I've got a lot of hope that at some point Gusto can be this guy.
Their 2 aces are ground ball pitchers so I think Houston is very focused on infield defense (and not so focused on OF defense). If McCormick was traded, Dezenzo becomes the backup at the corners and DH, Dubon is the backup at 2B/SS/CF. Given how good Rodgers, Pena, and Meyers are defensively, Dubon won’t need to be used as a defensive sub and it should be really rare that more than one of those guys needs to be pinch hit for in the same game (especially considering Houston is unlikely to have multiple bats on the bench that are better hitters). But in that scenario whoever ends up as the new 13th man (Short?) could be that emergency defensive replacement. Smith should be a plus defensive RF in pretty short order. Altuve should get to at least merely below average with enough reps. If I’m reviewing the offseason, it’s a B+ with misses being getting a better 2B than Rodgers (Polanco would have been good), adding a cheap veteran SP (Lynn or Heaney would have been my picks), and shoring up the 7th inning RP (there were lots of bargains out there). But the Tucker trade seems like a HR and the Walker signing looks like a pretty good move.
If Altuve can learn to play an avg LF (I think he can) the defense should be very good. Diaz -good and improving Walker- GG Rodgers- former GG, still really good Pena- former GG Parades- way above avg 3B Cam- Great athlete, looks to be above avg already Meyers- GG Altuve- Hopefully can become avg
