Agreed. I have been seeing +/- Tampa as the place. Helene moved quite a bit of water in the Tampa area and it was just passing by. Milton? Ugh
Reading about somebody in Bradenton (just South of Tampa) thinking about leaving if the projected track stays the same. Monday morning, people might need to make a definite decision about staying or going because the roads could get jammed up on Tuesday.
Maybe. With it not expected to make landfall until the middle of the week, there is still a decent amount of +/- on where it will hit. If it goes in close to Tampa, the areas to the South such as Sarasota won't have much fun.
Not sure what you are asking. Some stages are likely skipped, but this level of detail should suffice for the moment. 1. Everything happens in the Gulf Of Mexico Disturbed Weather Tropical Depression Tropical Storm Hurricane 2. At least one of the stages happens outside the Gulf Of Mexico Disturbed Weather Tropical Depression Tropical Storm Hurricane This link is about the early stages of Harvey and South Texas. The part with a focus on the Houston area is at a different link. Major Hurricane Harvey - August 25-29, 2017 The birth of Harvey occurred on Sunday August 13th, 2017 as a tropical wave emerged off the west coast of Africa, eventually merging with a broad area of low pressure near the Cabo Verde Islands. At first, it was thought the wave and the low pressure area would have a more west-northwest track, threatening the Lesser Antilles. However, this low stayed more on a westward course as it moved over the open Atlantic Ocean toward the Eastern Caribbean Sea. For a few days on its westward track, "Harvey" remained disorganized, and there was some uncertainty whether the low would become a tropical cyclone. However, by Thursday August 17th, the National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories and forecasts on Tropical Cyclone Nine Thursday morning, and Tropical Storm Harvey Thursday afternoon. Tropical Storm Warnings were issued that afternoon for Martinique, St. Lucia, Barbados, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Tropical Storm Harvey impacted the Windward Islands on Friday, August 18th, entering the Eastern Caribbean Sea as a minimal tropical storm, and eventually weakening to a tropical wave late Saturday evening. Although there was some potential for the remnants of Harvey to reorganize into a tropical cyclone, a tropical cyclone failed to form as the remnants of Harvey moved into the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday morning, August 22nd. With very warm waters in the Bay of Campeche and the Western Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) was fairly confident that the remnants of Harvey would reform into a tropical cyclone. At 10 AM CDT Wednesday August 23rd, Tropical Depression Harvey reformed. Initially, NHC believed Harvey would become either a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall somewhere between Brownsville (early Friday morning) and Houston (early Saturday morning), with the most likely location near the Rockport area late Friday night . However, with wind shear in the Western Gulf of Mexico weakening, Tropical Storm Harvey was intensifying quickly. By Wednesday evening, Harvey was forecast to make landfall as a hurricane somewhere over the Texas Coast.
Seeing the replies to your question, I think maybe they're missing the mark. How often has a system been born (so to speak) in the Gulf and then strengthen and etc etc, as opposed to a system that started elsewhere and STRENGTHENED in the Gulf as it made its way there. I've seen a few, but most have been those I've wikipedia'd well after the fact.
I didn't miss the mark since it was vague on what signals - delineates the start of a Hurricane. You said system, but provided no clarity on what signals - delineates the starting point for a system. At the link, there is a picture/drawing/graphic with an area in Yellow noted for being favorable for potential development. The area covered in Yellow is mostly Caribbean Central America Yucatan Peninsula Maybe an extremely tiny part of the GOM (Gulf Of Mexico) falls within the Yellow area, but it is dwarfed by the areas noted above. From three weeks ago. [[Weather News Published September 17, 2024 6:16pm EDT Updated September 20, 2024 2:06pm EDT] Impactful tropical threat could be brewing in Caribbean with potential track into Gulf of Mexico The growing concern is linked to a phenomenon known as the Central American Gyre, which has historically contributed to tropical storm formation in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico in the early spring or autumn. MIAMI – As tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean quiets down again, attention is shifting back to the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, where there are increasing signs of atmospheric conditions favorable for the development of possibly the next named storm sometime next week. The National Hurricane Center has again upped the odds of development within the next seven days to 50% with its Friday afternoon update. Further development may loom beyond seven days, according to the FOX Forecast Center. The growing concern is linked to a phenomenon known as the Central American Gyre, which has historically contributed to tropical storm formation in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico in the early spring or autumn. The gyre is a sprawling area of low pressure that feeds off moisture streaming in from the Pacific Ocean and forms near or over Central America. At its core, it is a heavy rain producer with impacts extending outwards hundreds of miles and leading to threats of torrential rainfall, flooding and landslides for more than a dozen countries centered in and around Central America. WHAT IS THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE? Organized low-pressure centers can develop within the large gyre if water temperatures and upper-level winds become favorable for tropical development. And current water temperatures in the Caribbean are near the record-warm levels set last season. Both early and late in the hurricane season are more notorious for seeing a tropical disturbance break away from Central America and form into a tropical entity in either the Eastern Pacific, Bay of Campeche or western Caribbean Sea. "You can get showers and storms, and you can get some of that energy that can fall off of it, spin-off of it, and translate into something that maybe develops out of the Gulf of Mexico, out of the Caribbean," FOX Weather meteorologist Marissa Torres said. Many computer model forecasts indeed show large amounts of moisture from the Pacific Ocean streaming across Central America and heading into the Caribbean Sea sometime next week to form a potential gyre. Meanwhile, early indications suggest an upper-level dip in the jet stream parked over the central U.S. will move northward, removing a blocking feature that would prevent storms from entering the Gulf of Mexico and also allow the gyre to drift north into the southern Gulf of Mexico. "So if we see that broad circulation and if it does perhaps move into the southern Gulf of Mexico or at the very least pivots a little farther to the north, then that opens a window for possible (tropical) development," FOX Weather meteorologist Stephen Morgan said. "And assuming we don't have significant systems moving from land into the Gulf of Mexico – notably fronts that would steer this thing away – there will be an element of the Gulf of Mexico being at play." While storm formation is never guaranteed, the pattern suggests an active period of rain for the Caribbean, parts of Mexico and likely southern Florida by late next week, according to the FOX Forecast Center. Regardless of if or when any individual storms undergo tropical development, there will be a large plume of tropical moisture in the area by late next week, and it is likely to persist... ...On average, about once every other year, the Central American Gyre produces a tropical cyclone, some of which develop into full-fledged hurricanes if conditions allow. Due to their formation of hotspots in the Caribbean or regions in the southern Gulf of Mexico, many go on to threaten the Southeast coast. Tropical Storm Amanda (2020), Tropical Storm Cristobal (2020), Hurricane Michael (2018), Tropical Storm Andrea (2013) and Hurricane Ida (2009) are all examples of areas of disturbed weather that formed off the Central American Gyre Hurricane Michael struck the Florida Panhandle as a Category 5 hurricane in 2018 after spending a week embedded in the overall gyre off the coast of Central America. Usually, due to their formation in the early or late season, tropical cyclones directly influenced by the Central American Gyre tend to be weaker when impacting the U.S. due to the prevalence of inhibiting factors such as cooler water temperatures and hostile upper-level winds.
