Since Beryl looks like the Real Deal, I have started looking around the Internet for more info. One person mentioned a model with Corpus Christi as the expected landfall. No link or image was provided, so won't assign too much weight to that forecast at the moment. Still, think about what you need to get done if the models eventually agree that the Texas Coast is the target.
I've been keeping an eye on the weather forums. The consensus seems to be to watch how it looks in a couple days as it approaches Jamaica. If it's still a strong hurricane then we have to take notice, but if it's a minimal hurricane or tropical storm at that time due to shear then we will probably be in the clear.
I also looked at some Weather Forums and on one of them somebody had post an image of the many possible paths projected by the various Models. It appeared that 75% or so of the projected paths had it going into the Yucatan Peninsula with others taking it into the GOM (Gulf Of Mexico) via the Yucatan channel (Waters between Mexico and Cuba). Since it is still way out there, it is too early to rely definitely on any specific prediction.
The models that keep it moving west slamming into the Yucatan then Mexico are the ones that forecast weakening due to shear in a couple days. Those that threaten Texas have it stronger heading into the Gulf. Generally speaking stronger storms tend to head poleward.
Category.............................................Sustained Winds.............................. ........1...................74-95 mph.........................64-82 kt.............119-153 km/h ........2...................96-110 mph.......................83-95 kt.............154-177 km/h ........3....(major)..111-129 mph.......................96-112 kt...........178-208 km/h ........4.....major)..130-156 mph.....................113-136 kt...........209-251 km/h ........5.....(major) 157 mph or higher........137 kt or higher.....252 km/h or higher
Obviously lots can change but the trend is showing the high pressure being moved to the east and allows an opening to TX. Again still 7 days out but definitely needs monitoring.
https://theeyewall.com/ “However, there is also the possibility that this ridge weakens, somewhat. At this point, this remains a lesser likelihood when we look at the global models. Still, there is a non-zero chance that Beryl turns northwestward after encountering the Yucatan Peninsula. In such a scenario a tropical system—be it a tropical storm or hurricane—could come to the Texas or even Louisiana coast late next weekend. I understand that everyone would like to have absolute answers about whether this will happen, but we just don’t have that kind of certainty right now. Bottom line: It’s within the realm of probability, but the odds are fairly low. We can see this distribution of possibilities when we look at the “super ensemble” track of forecasts for Beryl, which favors the ridge holding strong. We should know more about this part of Beryl’s forecast by Monday or Tuesday, and of course we’ll remain on top of that at The Eyewall.”
Record high water temps for this time of year will do that. I believe this is the earliest Atlantic Cat 4 in history.
Perfect example of y'all breaking the rules and when someone disagrees, telling them they are breaking the rules. It was LITERALLY you who started the D&D stuff.
You are right, the other guy first posted something that could have been interpreted either way - or could have been ignored. But it was @B-Bob who then clearly took it to D&D territory.
