My only strong opinions are melton too high (I hope I’m wrong/ I really don’t like him) and ullola too low. I’d have Baez a touch higher. Leon at 4 is super aggressive and unwarranted from all the guys who do this for a living…. And I completely agree. I think you might have Ochoa a touch too low- he’s 18, right?
I tend to penalize position player prospects heavily for 2 things: k rate >30%, and being limited to a corner OF or 1B in the lower levels. If a guy is only seeing time in RF/LF at 18, that probably means he is going to end up at the bottom of the spectrum of defensive value at 25, which just puts so much pressure on the bat. It caused me to rate Yordan a touch low (I think I graded him 55 his last year in the minors) even though I knew his bat was super special. But Yordan is the exception and really the only guy I can think of like that who fully panned out. I will never claim to be a good evaluator of pitching prospects. You have to be a legit scout putting actual eyes on all of them to actually have a meaningful opinion. So you could tell me I’m way wrong about Ullola or any of the other pitchers and I won’t argue.
Last year the Astros sent Gilbert to the Futures Game and then traded him. I would not be surprised if the same happened with Blubaugh this year.
Harper was seen as capable of manning CF even though he played RF; he’s played 187 games in CF in the majors. Vlad came up as a 3B and even played there briefly this season. Vlad is a little more comparable but both guys were viewed as plus athletes as prospects and had significantly better defensive projections than guys like Baez and Ochoa. One note: Houston is showing signs that they might be very good at physical development and getting/keeping guys in peak shape. If that’s the case it might make it more likely that guys like Ochoa/Baez maintain the ability to play RF at a plus/average level which mitigates the risk a bit.
He is 230 lbs and does not have a ton of speed. And he’s only 20. There is certainly risk that he will have to move to 1B/DH and even if he is able to stay in the OF there’s major risk he will be a minus defender out there due to limited range. None of that will matter if he is hitting 30 HR and batting .280. But that’s a lot of pressure on the bat.
It does put some pressure on the bat, especially if he happens to enter the league at a time where there are a lot of solid 1st basemen. However, there are more DH slots than in the past. To me, I think the limited positional availability is over done - it really comes down to whether you can hit in most cases regardless. I expect Baez to be a good but not great hitter. He needs to cut down on his strikeouts and walk more, but he is only 20 at this point. The power is translating though and he has good instincts from what I have seen.
SS Cristian Gonzalez made a rehab appearance in the FCL today and hit a HR. In 2022 he had started to get some hype as a high ceiling guy with a long development timeline, but then he got hurt. His high ceiling is wrapped up in his potential to grow into big power while remaining a good defender at SS or 3B. He is 6’5” so he’s kind of a poor man’s Oniel Cruz. At this point he’s been totally removed from the radar for awhile but he will be worth tracking once he gets back to Asheville. He’d need to put up some pretty monster numbers there to get back into the top prospect lists and project as a major leaguer.
This would have him making a 3rd (and possibly final) rehab start on the 9th or 10th. Essentially he is on track to be in the rotation after the All-Star break, giving him 2-3 big league starts before the deadline.
Just circling back on this, Villarroel had a 106 mph exit velo this spring. That would be Garrett Stubbs’ 2nd highest ever in his mlb career. I think Villaroel has some potential for average or even above average power down the line.
Luis Angel Rodriguez had a 0.73 era in 4 June appearances for Corpus (12.1 ip). He started off tonight with 3 scoreless innings before giving up 5 runs.
Ryan Gusto had his 5th straight AAA start of allowing 2 runs or less last night. Over that stretch he has 25 k and only 7 bb. 3-4 more consecutive starts like that and he’ll be looking ready for a callup if needed. June era for AAA SP: Gusto 1.57 Blubaugh 2.42 Henley 3.78 Gordon 4.63 Lauer 4.88 (3 starts of allowing 1 run each, 2 starts of allowing 5 runs each)
Didn't sound like that was the timeline Dana Brown was on- I translated it to something like 4 or 5 more rehab starts and maybe 1 start before the trade deadline.
That seems right if he's only scheduled to go 2 innings tomorrow. He'll need to build to at least 5 before being called up, I'd assume.
