While I don't necessarily disagree with the general assessment of the pitchers, before the season most Astros fans would have considered Tayler Scott and Ronel Blanco as players very easy to dump. With live arms you always want to hang on as long as possible hoping you can find that missing piece that brings it together for them.
Sure. And I agree. But the vast number of dipshits and spares on there snow that a 40 man crunch is not going to happen.
I guess it depends on who you talk to? I think he is actually not getting enough hype but maybe publications and the media is hyping him and I am just not aware. I think he was been one of the biggest break out players for the Astros. Why? Because the "stuff" is no longer hypothetical, it is legitimate and there isn't any real question that his stuff is good enough to be a quality big leaguer. At this point his delivery has been cleaned up a lot, and it is just a matter of him cutting down on his walks. The Astros going back at least 5-6 years has been to take these types of guys and maximize their velocity and effort in their delivery. As a consequence, the command and control/walks are always very high and at times so high these guys have nasty era's. Then around AA or AAA when these guys have low BBA and HP9, they scale them back a little bit and they get time to work on their control. You are right that right now his walks are just too high - and if he went to AAA right now, he likely would see his ERA go up because of veteran players drawing walks and because of the offenses in that league. However - if he shows even a 20% decrease in walks the rest of the season, he likely starts next year in AAA and will get to focus on the walks - all while only be a step from the Astros. I used to think he was ticketed for possible closing - he can run it up there over 100 MPH with max effort, and he could focus over 3-6 batters. Now it looks like he may have a real avenue to be a long term starter - but with a higher ceiling than most of the other ones we have had.
That is what they are finding out. He is comfortable at 6 spots on the field and can play 7. I still think that he long term ends up at SS or CF. The reports on the glove this year at SS are very strong.
He’s nothing too special but he has a good mix of pitches and I think I have read he is deceptive in throwing them. And the velo is not elite but he can get into the 96-97 range when he is peaking. He has the makings of a back end starter or a rich man’s Bielak type of long reliever.
Current Rule 5 assessment: High risk: IF Shay Whitcomb, OF Pedro Leon, P Miguel Ullola Moderate risk: P Colton Gordon, IF Will Wagner, P Ryan Gusto Low risk: P Julio Robaina, P Cesar Gomez, P Alimber Santa, P Alex Santos II Very low risk: P Misael Tamarez, OF Quincy Hamilton, C Luke Berryhill, P Ray Gaither, P Rhett Kouba, P Cole McDonald, P Luis Angel Rodriguez, P Drew Strotman, P Edinson Batista, C Miguel Palma, P Abel Mercedes, OF Colin Barber, P Aaron Brown No risk: 1B/OF Jordan Brewer, P Jayden Murray, P Jairo Solis, P Layne Henderson, OF/IF Rolando Espinosa, C/1B Luis Encarnacion, OF Logan Cerny, P Jaime Melendez, P Jacob DeLabio, P Brayan De Paula, P Kasey Ford, P Franny Cobos, P Deury Carrasco, If Jeremy Arocho, OF Zach Daniels, P Manuel Urias, P Railin Perez, P Carlos Calderon, P Amilcar Chirinos, P Jeremy Molero, C/1B Juan Santander, P Ian Foggo, IF Narbe Cruz, C Nerio Rodriguez, IF Cristian Gonzalez, C Fernando Caldera, C/1B Victor Diaz There may be some international signees down in the complex leagues who I’m not aware of who are eligible but they wouldn’t be any risk to be taken.
With an overlay of my 40 man roster list of spares and meh you can see there is no way we should lose anyone to rule 5
I had the same thought about trading a couple of them. That would be much better than leaving them exposed.
Dubin is definitely not easy to lose. He has elite stuff and very high ceiling and overall he’s been effective as is. I also do not think Cabbage would pass thru waivers; he’s a potential 30/30 guy who can handle all 3 OF spots. And I’d be hesitant to DFA Kessinger. But your point stands, there’s plenty of fringey guys on the 40 man that they will be able to easily protect who they need to from the Rule 5.
I agree with your current assessment but an active deadline could change a lot of things. Trading some of those fringey guys for very young prospects coupled with a nice draft could put this system in position to keep winning for several more seasons.
Dublin is almost 29, has a career ERA over 6 and it's almost 6 this season. The last kind of guy we kept like him was Montero.
His k/bb rates this season have been as good as Hunter browns. He has a 2.53 FIP. He’s been very unlucky (and occasionally poorly used) this season. He is a very good reliever who is blooming late due to injuries and physical development.
Expected 26 man returns 1 Tucker returning in early July Hummel Optioned back to Sugar Lan 2 Bloss returning in early July Dubin Optioned back to Sugar Land 3 Verlander returning in mid July Contreras Optioned back to Sugar Land 4 Caratini returning in late July Salazar Optioned back to Sugar Land Expected 40 man returns 1 Ortega returning in mid/late July and designated for assignment 2 Garcia returning in late July Montero Traded or Designated for assignment 3 McCullers returning in August King back to Sugar Land Whitley Traded or Designated for assignment 4 Murfee returning in August Optioned to Sugar Land Hensley Traded or Designated for assignment The 40 man roster remains at 40 after all these moves. Acquisitions and promotions to come.
Ortega won't have to be designated or some other 40 man move won't have to be made because France can be transfered to the 60. Coleman and Ort are other candidates to be designated. I doubt anyone is willing to claim either of those two and their horrible AAA numbers.
From easiest to hardest to lose for me would be kessinger, Whitley, cabbage, Dubin, in that order. I wouldn’t particularly want to lose any of them if also wouldn’t keep me up at night.
