https://www.mlb.com/amp/news/front-office-executives-poll-for-best-prospects-2024.html Joey Loperfido gets an honorable mention for highest baseball iq. Jacob Melton and Zach Dezenzo make the list for most underrated prospect.
The following rookie ball position players intrigue and excite me. I would appreciate any details and scouting reports/ comps that anyone could provide. DSL Darwin DeLeon 161 wRC+ w/ more BB than K Carlos Cauro 156 wRC+ but w/ .406 BABIP. Jancel Villaroel 148 wR + w/ only 16.0% K rate Sandro Pereira 147 wRC+ @ age 17 Ariel Lebron 142 wRC+ Luis Colon 127 wRC+ w/ more BB than K Roiner Quintana 122 wRC+ Cristopfer Gonzalez 118 wRC+ @ age 17 Kedaur Trujillo 117 wRC+ despite .287 BABIP Andrews Sosa 105 wRC+,= BB and K%, .297 BABIP Complex Waner Luciano 110 wRC+ despite .254 BABIP Alejandro Nunez 108 wRC+ w/ more BB than K I am hoping a couple of these guys can have good seasons this year and become true prospects.
Anyone in the top 100 prospects can be a great baseball player -- or a total bust. Go through some of those old prospect lists -- take 2020 and you'll see: 1: Wander Franco (!) 2: Jo Adell (hasn't been good) 4. Adley Rutschman: Great player 6. Luis Robert 7. Jerred Kelenic (Bust) 10. Julio Rodriguez (ROY) 26: Forrest Whitley (bust so far -- still holding out hope though) 29: Bobby Witt, Jr: WBC Team USA 39: Logan Gilbert 45: Grayson Rodriguez 53: Mitch Keller: All star 71: Shane McLanahan - 2x All star, could have been Cy Young without injuries 90 Andres Gimenez - All star 100. Jeremy Pena - World Series MVP
I remember them being high on Dezenzo last year in one of their chats or write ups. I'm surprised he has distanced himself from the other guys. In my mind, you can take him, Melton, Loperfido, Barber, Cole, Baez and Corona and pick one of thems name out of a hat and have just as good of a chance of picking the one that will be a successful major leagues.
The way I have always looked at it is that while elite prospects do carry bust risk, each elite prospect is representative of an org’s total farm and ability to develop players. So for example if a farm has 6-7 prospects in a credible top 100 list, then it probably means that team has been drafting and developing well, and that for every one of those 6-7 prospects who busts, there is probably another lower ranked prospect who will outperform their rankings. In Houston’s case, Dezenzo has significant bust risk, but I think it’s safe to say that Houston has at least one position player in the upper levels of their minors who will become a quality everyday or borderline star player that would be a reasonable expected outcome for a prospect ranked 40th in a top 100.
I think it depends on your definition of "success" Of the guys you listed, I think: Melton and Corona have serious enough K concerns (but not bad enough to keep them down) that they are not slam dunks but have progressed enough through the system and other skills like defense and baserunning give them a reasonable chance to succeed. Dezenzo does not have those other plus skills to rely on so needs to make enough contact in AAA this year to put him into that tier and remain an option to replace Bregman without the position becoming a chasm. Loperfido and Barber have very high floors and I expect them to play a long time in MLB but not really be foundation type guys to build around. If Cole can cut his strikeouts, he can be the next George Springer but just as likely ends up petering out in the minors a la Pedro Leon. Baez could surpass all of them but I need to see another positive season and progression into A+ or AA before I'm willing to say his floor is high enough to surpass the rest of those guys, though I would put his chances better than Cole's now.
I hate Melton as a prospect. He’s the guy Dana is highest on and he’s really good at what he does and I’m a dipshit, so…. I’d be shocked if Melton was ever a quality major league player and I’d be surprised if Gilbert wasn’t, and he couldn’t get rid of Gilbert fast enough. Hope I’m wrong on both counts and someone reminds me of how dumb I am 5 years from Now when he’s collecting MVP votes for us.
I actually like Melton. I just don't see him hitting enough to be a superstar. I think he could make a couple of all star games, but a .230 BA will hold him back. I just wish we could give him Barber's hit tool.
I think Melton will be the midpoint of Derek Fisher and George Springer, so somewhere between a replacement player and a perennial 4-5 win all-star.
I actually think he may get 12 WAR over his 6 controllable seasons, but it will be a mash-up of 1 WAR and 3 WAR seasons. Up and down and tough to expect the 3 when the 1 is so likely.
I have never hated Melton as a prospect but I was never convinced he was anything more than an average prospective LF/1st baseman. This was my list of what I considered the best prospects selected in 2022 (including 2 with elite tools) from my draft day notes. 1 Ryan Clifford: round 11, RF, Difficult sign, Vandy commit has youth, lots of tools & a high ceiling to move him along. 2 Austin Temple: UDFA, RH SP Notre Dame’s post grad Fri night starter, missed 2020 (covid) and most of 21 (injury) best case a #2/3 starter 3 Garrett McGowan: round 17, 1st base, Excellent glove and a very good bat, a real 1st base prospect with a chance to play at a high level. 4 Drew Gilbert: round 1, CF, High floor. Undersized situational LH hitter with a quick bat. Avg glove & speed means CF will be a stretch for him. 5 Trey Dombroski: round 4, LH P with elite command and control, best pitch is his change. Needs to add a few ticks to the FB to be a legit SP prospect. With Clifford and Gilbert gone and McGowan released Temple still has a chance to come around and I still have high hopes for Dombroski. Dezenzo was not among my favorites but my draft notes said... Big versatile SS could alternatively be developed at first/third base to find his best outcome.
It's always interesting to look back at what our thoughts were at the time. I remember loving Gilbert because of his fire and (at the time) being very down that all the high energy vocal fiery Astros were gone (Springer, Correa Reddick come to mind) and this team needed that. I figured he would be a quick mover but be more of a 15/25 guy than a true power/speed threat. Didn't know much about his fielding projections. I was very high on Andrew Taylor, I thought he may end up being a BOR guy with a floor of Phil Maton. I loved the Clifford pick, but after Whitaker I was skeptical that he could hit upper level professional pitching. Looks like Whitaker may have a chance too. I don't remember much else except wonder over Dezenzo's college numbers as a SS and how big he was for the position. Speaking of big for the position. . . Price.
I have made draft day notes for years. Just a line or so for each prospect along with some basic info. I have only been saving them since 2019 the older ones were lost when the site I was posting on changed hands. They have proved to be a good source for me to look back to and I highly recommend trying it if you are so inclined.
Astros have really liked Dezenzo since they drafted him. I thought he would make the top 100 but not the top 50. Although I had some people by early last year say he was already a top 50 guy internally in the league. He has a lot of attributes that scouts like. He has a really good body for being a big leaguer. He is big and strong and an underrated athlete. His glove is promising and he has a lot of natural power even with changing his stroke to limit strikeouts. He also is a strong base runner. I like him. He may need another year in AA/AAA to see if he can cut his strikeouts down some more and work more walks. It is very possible he is the Astros starting 3rd baseman or first baseman in 2025.
Jacob "I have a Joey Gallo sized hole in my swing" Melton? Hey - the Astros think the guy can seriously steal 80 bases if he plays enough.... but i say you cannot steal first base.
Gallo’s overall value might not be a bad upper outcome comp for Melton. Melton won’t strikeout that much, but he won’t walk or hit as many homers either. Their defensive value will probably be similar, and Melton will have more baserunning value. That’s a quality everyday guy you don’t mind at the bottom of a contending team, but not a core piece that will convince you not to rebuild. And not a guy who will go a long way to replacing Kyle Tucker.
It's all about expectations. If they expect him to be the next Kyle Tucker or George Springer that's tough. If they expect him to be the next Chas McCormick maybe he gets there. Gallo had 14.6 WAR during his 6+ yrs of controllable time. I think the Astros would take that in a heartbeat. But that's not reasonable because they aren't even really comparable players. Unfortunately I think Derek Fisher is. Fisher struck out 25% of the time in AAA while Melton only has a 22% K rate so far in his minor league career. Unfortunately Fisher had a .361 OB% while Melton is struggling with a .338. This is a huge year for Melton. For him to take the next step toward regular MLB starter, he needs to get his OB% over .350 in AA or AAA. Even if his K rate went up to 25% I think it's OK if he can improve the OB%.
