Very Thankful Brice Mathews is a Star Prospect. Great Job by Dana Brown. Luis Baez - 20 HIGH A, Best Contact Hitter Nehomar Ochoa - 18 6'4 LOW A Eduardo Perez - 17, 6'4 DSL BLUE Cristopfer Sanchez - 18 DSL ORANGE Franchely Silverio 17 6'2 DSL Blue Camilo Diaz 18 SS Joey Loperfido Jacob Melton Pitcher Jake Bloss -22 AA Rafael Gonzalez -19 Luis Rodriguez - 19
Astros young hitters in A ball have struggled. A lot of them are only 19-20 years old, but coming stateside hasn't been easy for them so far. I am not giving up on any of them at this point, but the lack of physical strength is starting to impact Kenni Gomez, and Luciano isn't muscling balls either.
Also - very quietly Zach Cole is off to a good start jumping to AA. The sample size is fairly small, but he is drawing walks, hitting for average and showing double power. The glove has been excellent too. I am always leery of prospects like Cole, some of them turn into pre-injuries Eric Davis or Tori Hunter - but most flameout. If he keeps this up at AA, then you will hear talk of him.
DSL Blue team was the only team in the system playing today and they beat the Red Sox's Red team 2-1. Both runs came on solo homers hit by Hector Salas and Wilton Lara. Salas, a 20-year-old Dominican infielder, was signed a couple weeks ago. Wonder what his story is because I imagine IFA position players who aren't defecting Cubans or NPB/KBO imports making their pro debuts at 20 sounds super rare. Lara, also a 20-year-old Dominican infielder, is in his third season in the Dominican complex.
Hoping he gets a shot at AA soon. Maybe he does manage to replace Bregman assuming he doesn't re-sign.
Brice Matthews will definitely motivate Houston Youth. More Talent will come from Houston because of Brice.
Fangraphs Astros prospects list is out: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/houston-astros-top-40-prospects-2024/ Their list further confirms how hard it is to rate Houston’s prospects and also how deep their system is. From the 2nd/3rd/4th tiers, it’s an average to slightly above average system, but lacks elite prospects. As they mention, it could change dramatically in a short time because of all the high variance prospects. They’re way high on: SS Alberto Hernandez, 3B Camilo Diaz Theyre way low on: OF Pedro Leon, P Forrest Whitley Pitcher velo tops: Speas 102 Santa 100 Mercedes 100 Tamarez 99 Whitley 99 Bloss 98 Ullola 98 Brito 98 Knorr 97 Blubaugh 97 A Santos 97 Arrighetti 96 Rodriguez 96 Gomez 96 Tredwell 95 Hicks 95 Y Santos 95 True 95 Marte 95 Batista 95 Astros should have plenty of arms to fill their BoR, MR, and leverage RP, but Bloss and Blubaugh are the only realistic hopes for ToR guys.
I still have Tredwell as a very high ceiling prospect but his outcomes are so variable I can see why you might not include him.
Quick comparison of my top 15 to Fan Graphs top 15. BlindHog FanGraphs Jake Bloss 2 Brice Matthews 5 Luis Baez 9 A.J. Blubaugh 17 Jacob Melton 1 Zach Dezenzo 6 Kenny Gomez NR Joey Loperfido 3 Alonzo Tredwell 8 Chase Jaworsky 18 Spencer Arrighetti 7 Ethan Pecko NR Alberto Hernandez 4 Camilo Diaz 10 Pascanel Ferreras 21 Wide variance Blubaugh Gomez Pecko Hernandez
Javier Perez walked one and struck out four over five shutout/no-hit innings in the second game of a doubleheader for the DSL Blue team.
Did this quick and got my Hernandez's mixed up. Saw Alberto on their list and thought Cesar. My list should read Cesar Hernandez, who I consider to be a high ceiling outfielder with time to improve his floor enough to carry him at least to the high minors. Will fix it.
I went thru an exercise comparing Houston’s organizational roster in 2015 (when they first made the playoffs and were deadline buyers, officially ending the rebuild) and now, mapping player-by-player. Applying the Pareto principle left me with these takeaways: The current farm system lacks 3-4 elite prospects to be on par with 2015; there does not appear to be a 2015 Josh Hader or 2025 JD Davis in this system; however, the current farm probably has more upside in the lower levels than it did in 2015, especially on the position player side. This analysis was done on the organization entering 2015, so it does not include players from the 2015 draft. That was an important one for Houston, as it included Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Patrick Sandoval, Daz Cameron, and Myles Straw. Tucker, Bregman, and Yordan Alvarez are 3 vital pieces core to the current run that were added after 2015 opening day, and they were not a part of the 2015 playoff run. The current big league roster compares favorably to the 2015 roster in terms of both present and long term outlook, except in 2 critical spots: SS and CF. The 2015 team featured superstar Carlos Correa in his rookie year, and he was under control for 6 additional seasons; this years team has Jeremy Pena, who is about half the player Correa was, and he’s only controlled for 3 more seasons. In 2015, George Springer was in CF, in his 2nd season. Due to service time manipulation, he had an additional 5 years of control remaining. This years team has Jake Meyers in CF, who despite having a breakout season, is still likely only 75% of the player Springer was, and he only has 3 more years of control left. That said, the balance of comparison across all the other 24 big league roster spots probably favors 2024 enough to make it subjective as to which big league roster has more surplus value or overall talent. The 2015 pitching staff seems especially lacking in hindsight, featuring a rotation of Keuchel/McHugh/McCullers/Feldman/Hernandez. The end result of this exercise further cemented in my mind that with an aggressive seller’s approach to this deadline and effective scouting (meaning trading Tucker, Bregman, Valdez, and Verlander, and getting good value in return), the org could very well enter 2025 in better overall position in terms of long term outlook than they were entering 2015. Even if they don’t sell at this deadline, as long as they’re not overly aggressive in trading away prospects and have another good draft (albeit one without a 2nd round pick because of the Hader signing), they won’t be much worse off than they were 10 years ago when this magical run was just beginning.
Ullola has thrown harder then 98. I saw him hit 100 mph. Tredwell is taking baby steps - but he has the upside of a TOR talent. He needs to stay healthy and improve his control. The movement, deception and delivery are all there. Pedro Leon is a tough one - this year he has basically been the player they wanted him to be in the past. No he doesn't have an 1.100 OPS but he has a solid OPS, the strikeouts are down, the glove is good and he still has skills galore.
This is a good exercise. What I will say is that I believe this team is in a worse position - for one main reason, pay roll. I don't see the Astros being sellers, and from what I have been told, they intend to be buyers - as they are trying to buy now... targeting relievers on short term deals, and a first baseman on short term deals - or a guy that they can play a long time.
It remains to be seen how bad their payroll situation is. Abreu and Montero are their only surefire bad contracts, they are both 3rd tier deals and they end next season; Houston had a deal similar back in the last decade when Rasmus accepted the QO and then sucked. Pressly, Verlander, McCullers, Javier, Hader, Alvarez, and Altuve are varying in how much surplus value they might have but for now it’s debatable whether any of them are actually bad deals; more than being negative value, they are just commitments that limit Houston’s flexibility. But there’s a chance any/all of those (outside of maybe Pressly) could turn out to be very good deals for the Astros.
