2024 Astros Minor League Thread

There are scouts that said if he fills out, he will have to move off SS. I can’t really offer an opinion as I want to see at least several hundred innings before I have a strong opinion.

Brown likes prospects like him - and I knew that Brown believed when he drafted him that he could become a Larkin or Brandon Phillips type player.

Matthews moved up draft boards once teams dove into his tape. He was a likely 1st rounder or very top of the 2nd round guy.

I personally want hitters drafted in the top two rounds that have some hitting instincts -

 

42 Astros position player prospects have at least 50 pa this season. Only 12 have a wRC+ <90:

CF Logan Cerny is in his 4th season in the lower levels, having steadily increased his k rate each year; he has huge power/speed tools but his time is just about up.

3B Luciano is only 19 and his k/bb rates aren’t bad; he just seems to be making weak contact and/or having bad luck. He probably just needs time. The same is true for IFs Alberto Hernandez and Yamal Encarnacion, who are in the same situation but are lesser prospects.

C Will Bush is only 20 but striking out way too much. When he has made contact he hasn’t done damage. Still very early for him.

OF Cooper Hummel is a 29 year old AAAA player, but his bb/k rates are good, just seems to be making weak contact.

IF Jacob Amaya has really good k/bb rates but poor power/babip numbers. Not sure what’s up with that but he’s had a tumultuous season with changing teams and bouncing between the majors and minors.

OF Tyler Whitaker is only 21 but in his 4th straight year of striking out too much to be viable. Huge hole in his swing that he probably has about 15 months to fix.

OF Quincy Hamilton has similar k/bb rates to previous seasons but his ISO and BABIP have cratered this year. Not sure what’s going on there.

IF Anthony Sherwin, C CJ Stubbs, and IF Chad Stevens are non-prospects who are striking out too much. All 3 are just org depth/minor league bench players, although Stevens is playing almost everyday because Zach Dezenzo is hurt.

 

12 Astros prospects have wRC >130 (min 20 pa):

IF Jeron Williams, OF Cesar Hernandez, C/1B Juan Santander, IF Pescanel Ferreras, C John Garcia, and OF Trey Cabbage all have inflated babip which indicates their production will normalize down a bit. Williams and Hernandez should still be very productive given their k/bb rates, and Santander and Cabbage are hitting the ball very hard. Ferreras and Garcia could be fool’s gold.

OF/1B Cam Fisher, OF/1B Joey Loperfido, and OF/1B Oliver Carrillo are producing in spite of high k rates. That’s not to say their performance isn’t great, but for guys in the lower levels (Fisher and Carrillo), that spells problems once they get into the upper levels.

C/1B Collin Price, Luis Encarnacion, and IF Jesus Bastidas seem to be having balanced sustainable high level production (although Encarnacion is still under 50 pa). Price is old for High A and repeating that level, so we won’t know anything about him until he gets to Corpus. Bastidas in worth tracking in AAA; he is only 25 and has high defensive value, so this could be a good find for Dana Brown. Encarnacion has shuffled between Fayetteville and Asheville, with most of his production coming in the lower level, but he’s worth tracking as the season progresses.

Jeron Williams and Cesar Hernandez are probably the 2 guys raising their stock the most based on stats, but they both are still dealing with very small samples.

 

He cant be worse than Chas/Meyers has been this year.

 

Meyers has been fine.
Strong center field defense and a .765 OPS is good. They just need to put him in center and leave it alone for 25 straight games And see what he can do.

 

Yeah, Meyers and that .765 OPS..oh the horror.

 

But he has been worse than Meyers.

What am I missing about Meyers?

All I hear is how terrible he is and apparently the Astros agree because they are starting him less than 50%, even with Chas hurt.

He has started 6 of the last 15 games despite being 6th on the team in OPS+ and wRC+ and being, possibly, the best defender on the team.

I keep saying it - Dubon is not a outfielder.

His range is sub-par with an average range 2 ft ( about 6%) less than average, and eventhough he is out there for his arm, it's obvious he isn't an OF because he could have thrown out a runner last night but took 2 steps (like an infielder) after catching the ball before throwing.

Meanwhile, Jake's arm is significantly less but he makes up for it by having exceptional range (about 5 ft better than average, nearly 7 ft better than Dubon) catching balls most CF can't get to.

So my original question- why is everyone, including the Astros, so down on him?

 

They can play lip service about still using analytics all they want. The Jake Meyers conundrum shows me that they don't. They are using some 1985 Reggie Jackson and Jeff Bagwell logic about batting average and the need for a strong arm in center.
Let Dubon be what he is valuable at being. A super sub that can play multiple positions. He's not valuable as an everyday center fielder. He's sub par there.

 

I think Dubon would be great giving Altuve some DH days and Bregman some rest/work days to get right. And he is an ideal late inning sub in many situations.

Understand, I think this team is better with him on it. I just don't think him playing over half his games in the OF, and actually starting most of the games there is best for the team.

 

If you want to go 13-12 in those games then I guess it's fine. I would rather have Dubon in CF. The numbers may or may not say this but Dubon is much more clutch. Meyers would be fine as a fourth OF.

 

Stats lie sometimes.

 

Meyers is a lot better as a CF than Dubon, not even close

some fans still look only at batting average and make a decision on who is better

as mentioned earlier, the organization doesn’t use analytics anymore

And not long ago we were a leader in the industry

This is why I wanted Rodney Linares as the manager but obviously Crane wanted to continue Dusty’s work as more traditional baseball

 

Certainly when dealing with small samples they can.

The reason Jake Meyers feels like he's doing so bad is his pathetic OBP of 0.293 and the fact that he's got more strikeouts than hits this season.

Other players on the Astros with more strikeouts than hits this season, Jose Abreu, Chas McCormick, Joey Loperfido (super small sample), Grae Kessinger (super small sample)

So yeah, stats can still explain why he sucks if you look at them all, but his OPS is skewed by an unsustainable (for him) slugging% created by the relatively small sample.

 

Meyers’ SLG is not anomalous. He has always crushed the ball when he has been healthy. If anything he’s gotten bad luck on babip.

 

I mean, it's 86 points above his career average, 90 above where he was at last season, 159 above where was at the season before that....so it kind of is anomalous.

You do have a point about his BAbip this season, but I'm explaining why his actual performance doesn't feel like he's doing as well as the OPS would suggest....not that his OPS is even all that good.

I think Jake is what he is, a guy who will hover around 0.700 OPS with a decent sample size to draw from, who is a plus defensive outfielder. That makes him overall right around a replacement level player at the major league level.

If you have a guy like that, you can certainly get by, but you should always want something better because in a perfect world that guy is predominantly a bench player.

 

Leon wishes he had a AAA season as good as Meyers' 2021 season. Meyers should be the starting CF, period.

 

The judgment of Meyers’ value will always hinge on how the evaluator values defense. An elite defensive CF with a 700 ops is an extremely valuable player and not a guy you relegate to the bench.

I still don’t think we know for sure how good Meyers is. This year (765 ops) is the first year since his rookie year (761 ops) that he’s been healthy. So while I understand the argument, I am not ready to write him off as a 700 ops guy, and with his defense, the difference between that and a 750 ops guy is gigantic.

 

Clutch gene matters more than a y other numbers. Look at Dubon s RISP numbers. They're probably the best on the team.

 

Meyers is alright by me but pro baseball managers do not seem to agree. I do not think the problem is in the field but it persists anyway. Fortunately he will soon be replaced by Melton, ending the problem of who is the center fielder.
I will say it with you, Dubon is not an outfielder. Dubon is not an outfielder. Dubon is not an outfielder. Dubon is not an outfielder.