https://blogs.fangraphs.com/los-angeles-angels-top-38-prospects/ Fangraphs has started updating their prospect lists for next year. One thing I always look at is how many 1st and 2nd round picks each org has, and I’m always surprised at how some orgs who have mediocre or bad big league teams don’t have many top picks in their system, with the Angels being a consistent offender. This year is no different: their prospect list has ONE 1st round pick, and only 3 2nd round picks. Part of that is graduating Schanuel and Neto so quickly, and those are 2 pretty good players. But to have such a thin top of the system with a team that hasn’t been contending for a half decade is pretty sad. A healthy system should have 8-10 picks from the top 2 rounds, and system from a team that has been recent deadline sellers should have more than that. I expect Houston’s list to have just two 1st rounders and four 2nd rounders on it; they didn’t have top 2 picks in 2020-2021 (although they did recoup a 2nd rounder in 2020 as compensation for losing Gerrit Cole), traded away their 1st round picks from 2019 and 2022, and lost their 2024 2nd rounder for signing Hader. The top picks from Houston’s post-2015 drafts thru 2021 are looking pretty pathetic: 2016: Forrest Whitley, Ronnie Dawson 2017: JB Bukauskas, Corbin Martin, JJ Matijevic, Joe Perez 2018: Seth Beer, Jayson Schroeder 2019: Korey Lee, Grae Kessinger 2020: Alex Santos II 2021: n/a There’s probably not a single player from that 6 year stretch that will produce a 2 fwar season. Luckily Houston has done well in the later round of those drafts with guys like Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick, Jeremy Pena, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, and Josh Rojas.
College vs High School picks have to be part of that equation. Organizations that select lots of H S. players have longer a window for those picks and should have more of them in their system. I would say the window for a top 2 round H S. player to be in an organization ends no longer than 7 years, while the same player out of college would be 5 years. Then there's Forrest Whitley, lol
Astros signed another Dominican prospect, OF Yensi De La Cruz, 6’2” 170lb lefty hitter. No bonus info appears to be available but this late in the period it’s not likely to be much.
This is why I never thought losing 4 rd 1-2 draft picks was that big of a deal. Especially since when Oz was here the Stros did so well scouting the Caribbean . It's also why there are very few guys in the minors who should be untouchable in trades.
4 of those 11 got traded for MLB players, so that's got to be a + in the book, right? I count only 4 as total busts (Dawson, Perez, Schroeder, JJ)
Yes, from one perspective it’s clear Houston maxed out the value of Martin, Bukauskas, and Beer by trading them for Greinke, who was pretty good for the Astros, since none of those guys ended up being worth anything. But 18-21 controllable seasons of 2 1st rounders and a 2nd rounder for a couple of seasons of a well-paid ace is not a good outcome imho. Another thought I’ve had is that it’s possible those guys might’ve had better careers with Houston had they not bern traded, since Houston might’ve handled their remaining development better. Still, I think objectively it’s 9 busts with Whitley and Santos TBD.
Meh. Greinke only really had surplus value in 2019. Of course no one would say it wasn’t worth it had Houston won a ring that season, but an objective analysis of the value of those picks would reveal it’s a terrible value to get 3-4 wins worth of value in 3-4 months out of those 3 picks.
He objectively pitched 2 more years for the Stros, not just 3-4 months. Those prospects made the big boy club better, which is the purpose of draft picks and prospects.
Greinke would have been a valuable pitcher in 2020 had the season played out fully and wasn't interrupted by a pandemic. His peripherals were all still really good that season. He also helped eat some solid innings in the injury riddled 2021 season, even if his level of performance had fallen off. I know the end result WAR calculator may not look like he was worth it, but he certainly helped for more than just 2019.
I don’t really disagree with any of that, but that doesn’t really negate my point that whatever they got from Greinke was not a good return for 2 1st round picks and a 2nd rounder (leaving Josh Rojas out of it).
Who were the best players 10-15 picks after JBB? After Beer? Not exactly superstars. Martin had promise until he got hurt, which was a bummer you can't do anything about (Tyler Ivey too)
Exactly Bottom line for me is unless a rebuild is going on, prospects are there to help win championships. Only a very few prospects should be considered long term pieces that shouldn't be traded in the quest for championships. People fall more in love with prospects than the ultimate goal of falling in love with championships.
Shane McClanahan and Jake McCarthy were drafted very shortly after Beer and both have 3+ fwar seasons on their resume and are $20M+/yr players. There were plenty of valuable picks after all of those players.
What's your point? Strider was picked in the 3rd rd and he's valuable too. Piazza was picked in the 54th rd, he was pretty valuable. My point is there are only a very few prospects that should be untouchable.
I understand this and I'm still trying to figure out what you are meaning. Most prospects are made to be traded unless you're doing a full rebuild.
Whitley was supposed to be an ace and Santos at least a #3/4 starter. Both are on a potential relief pitcher track with no certainty of success even there. They may not be complete busts but they surely have been disappointing.
If only they could nail every single pick, the world would be a beautiful place. Those are 2 pretty, pretty, pretty ok players, I'll give you that
Would you trade those 2 pretty, pretty ok players to give your favorite team its best chance to win a championship?
