That’s what I’m thinking. There is a premium Bregman’s contract will involve, and Bregman’s agent can leverage his 4 World Series experience. The Astros already have a culture of can do; Alvarez, Altuve, Tucker, Diaz have shown they can perform when the spot light is on them. That is a huge value of what other teams would want from Bregman, that he could still be a .800 OPS, but may hover around the mid .700’s for most of the next contract. I’m still a huge Bregman fan wherever he plays. I still like seeing Springer do well, same for Correa. I do t really care how Cole is doing in New York, he’s such an afterthought.
To me most, but not all, of any new deal should be about how much the player contributes to winning during the length of a contract. That includes production in all phases, but also + or - vs potential options. History and fan reaction should also be considered. If a team expects a player to produce 1 WAR ( or equivalent in whatever info they use) for every $8M spent, I don't think they expect Altuve to average 3.1 WAR in his ages 35-39 season when he has averaged 3.2 bWAR in his ages 30-34 seasons. He will likely average closer to $12.5M per WAR (avg 2 WAR per season) He got that deal because he is Jose Altuve not because they expect him to be all star caliber throughout the deal. Bregman is very close in status for the golden age Astros. I'm not saying that should make him an automatic overpay, but it should be part of the equation. He has made just under $108M and produced 38.9 bWAR. That's under $2.8M per WAR (as opposed to Altuve who has cost $3.3M through 2024). He has been better value than Altuve over the course of his career. He is also 4 years younger, and has out produced Altuve 3.6 bWAR to 3.2 bWAR per season since 2020. (notice I did not include 2018 or 2019?) My point is that there is justification to sign Bregman to a longer and bigger contract than Altuve got based on: history, age, future projection, and options.
Pena and Meyers are fine for what they are. I don't think you can live with a first baseman and left fielder, the two easiest positions to find hitters, that can't hit then pin the blame on defense first center fielder and shortstop. I don't want to pay for another aging first baseman. Fooled us once on that one. Sign Bregman. Let Dezenzo win rookie of the year at first. Sign Foster Griffin from Japan. Resign Kikuchi. Hope that Chas gets it turned around.
This would be fine to me except I don't think they have the financial resources to sign more than 1 pitcher (I hate say only need 1, but that SHOULD be enough with current roster - fingers crossed, knock on wood) Dezenzo will have some growing pains, but is a bat first guy and should, at least be able to manage a 100ish OPS+/wRC+ especially if Singleton starts vs some tough RHP once or twice per week. By resigning Bregman, it keeps the lineup at least 5 deep in 115+ type hitters. The team needs another LH OF bat to platoon w/ Meyers. The problem currently is all CF options hit vs LHP but weak vs RHP. Hopefully Melton is that guy as Gamel, Heyward, Cabbage, et al can't play much in CF. If they can platoon Dezenzo (75%)/Singleton(25%) at 1b and ?(50%)/Meyers(50%) in CF The team should be good from a run production/defense position.
Altuve, Alvarez, and Tucker will average out to ~140 wRC+ Meyers, Pena, and whichever of Dezenzo or Whitcomb ends up playing everyday should average out to ~100 wRC+. Either Dezenzo or Whitcomb could feasibly play any of the 3 open spots. I think an effective platoon of Singleton and McCormick can post a combined ~120 wRC+, and I think Diaz will end up in the same range. So I think Houston just need to add one everyday hitter at any of their 3 open spots (3B, 1B, LF) that can post ~120 wRC+. Free agents I think can fit that bill: Bregman Walker Alonso Adames O’Neill Pederson Profar Soto Teoscar Santander Honorable mention: Goldschmidt, Canha, Torres, Kepler, Martinez, Kim, Santana
Agreed. I meant Pena and Meyers are fine when they are playing up to defensive expectations which I believe Pena can get back to. I just don't like this idea that we need Tulowitzki at short because of the shortcomings at first. It should be the opposite. Let defensive first positions be what they are and find someone for the easy to fill positions
The way I view it, the Astros need an offensive upgrade at two spots. 1st base and a corner outfielder should be the easiest to address - but it doesn’t have to be those spots, it can be CF or SS. I don’t mind pursuing Christian Walker if his market is soft, he is only like 32 years old. Ideally you find someone cheap that gives you production at first, but it’s possible that person just isn’t available.
Bryce Matthews should make his ML appearance at some point next season. What position do y’all think the Astros play him SS, 3B, somewhere else? Since Pena has struggled defensively at SS, and though solid offensively, do the a Astros trade him, keep him at SS, or move him to 3B? And does anyone think the Astros and Bregman can reach an agreement, especially with Tucker getting ready to break the bank?
Pena’s bat is really only viable at SS or in a Dubon-type role. And even though his defense seems to have taken a step backward, he’s still been worth 2.7 fwar and is a really valuable player. I really can’t imagine a scenario where Pena isn’t the Astros starting SS until he reaches free agency. Matthews has been playing more 3B in the last couple of months, so reading into that it looks like they may be gearing him up to be an option to replace Bregman. The chances of Houston re-signing Bregman aren’t zero, but they aren’t very high. He will be one of the top 3-4 free agents available and by far the best available player at his position. He will be asking for $200M+ and I just don’t see Houston paying that (and I don’t really want them to). There’s always a chance that Bregman’s offers aren’t to his liking and he opens up to the idea of a shorter term contract, in which case I think Houston would be firmly in the mix. But for now I do not expect Bregman back next season. It’s a shame Matthews and Melton didn’t have another half-season of development by now, because having them established as elite hitters at 3B and CF would be awesome and take a lot of pressure off of Houston’s front office this offseason.
What a great response! I think the Astros should get prepared to offer Tucker full market value, and I think it will potentially be north of $300 million type of contract. And while they are at it, they should get a viable veteran 1B to platoon with Singleton. I think it worth the risk to stand put waiting for Matthews and Melton. I think the Astros may look to make Diaz the 1st baseman of the future, since they just drafted another catcher that they are very high on. So I wouldn’t expect the Astros to spend top dollars on a 1st baseman this offseason.
I think that the Astros can sign Bregman, if Bregman settles for a hometown discount ... mostly in length of contract. The full market value of Bregman's contract is likely a bridge too far, for the Astros FO future plans. I give the odds 50/50 that Bregman resigns with the Astros.
The Astros have $141.967M counting towards CBT for 9 players (2 that are no longer on 40 man) Plus Framber, Tucker, B.Abreu, L Garcia, Murfee, Chas, Pena, Meyers, Dubon, and potentially Urquidy are arbitration eligible and will get raises of some amount high or low. That is likely $200M
$60M+ in 2025 money tied up in Abreu, Montero, McCullers, and Javier is a big hinderance to Houston’s ability to improve the roster this offseason. Having $34M tied up in closers (Pressly and Hader) also isn’t an efficient use of resources. That’s nearly half the teams payroll tied up in 4 guys who will not contribute at all and 2 guys who only throw 1-2 innings every other game.
They can move Pressly easily and for value. The Abreu and Montero contracts end at the end of next season. They can still be aggressive if they choose to, but have to target the right players.
Mathews will be playing at 3rd base before the break next season. There really is no point in re-signing Bregman for half a season.
Matthews has a 50% strike out rate in AAA right now and had something like a 40% in AA. He’s my top prospect but that’s incredibly optimistic and probably not at all realistic.
