Dezenzo will be perfectly fine. Go look at Aaron Judge's numbers at age 24 in his first cup of coffee. Nearly identical to Dezenzo.
I'm curious about the aggressive approach. The Braves were aggressive promoting, and Dana has been quoted multiple times about how he likes aggressive promotions. Here's a Chronicle article from a month ago. I've heard/read there's a league-wide trend towards fast promotions, with the thought being that these ultra-talented guys will rise to the top quickly and are ready for the big leagues faster than old-school player development guys used to think. Maybe that's true. I'm just curious how that squares with the Astros' historical ability to make prospects better in the minor leagues through their player development system. We've seen how more time seasoning in the minors with our staff has helped guys break out. Springer and his K rates is one big example. So I am interested to see how Dana Brown balances that approach. We'll see how much time Dezenzo and Matthews get in AAA to start the season next year, or if they are promoted early.
We'll see how it works out. I guess the alternative argument is that you want guys as close to full stride as possible when you start using their valuable MLB service time. You could waste a year on development that could have been used in the high minors if you hotshot a guy through. The caveat is that if a guy gets promoted early in the season, there's no real danger of that happening versus promoting them 3 months later. I think Brown expects Matthews and Dezenzo to be on the MLB club early next season given the aggression.
There is some logic to the idea of getting a guy to the majors quickly to ensure as much of his prime age (~23-30) as possible is spent in the big leagues, with the assumption that if a player fails, he can always be sent down and developed in the upper minors for up to 3 more years. This lets the quick-adapters thrive while also giving better insight into what exactly the guys who fail need to work on.
The first thing that pops into my head about this is the opportunities to extend players. Wouldn't it be nice to have more guys who use their 6 (7) seasons of control from 21-27, rather than 24-30? So the front office can consider a Long extension w/o getting into their mid-30s? Part of that has to be a high level of talent brought in and part has to be identifying younger players, like high schoolers and international free agents.
Fayetteville and Asheville wrapped up their seasons on Sunday. Despite their poor record, I think Fayetteville had a really successful season. They had a young roster even by current standards, and most of their young players took positive steps forward. IF Chase Jaworsky, OF Nehomar Ochoa, and OF Kenni Gomez all showed very high potential and finished as above average hitters for their league. IF Alejandro Nunez, OF Yamal Encarnacion, and C Will Bush had nice seasons that put them further onto the prospect map. C Jancel Villarroel came up from the GCL and continued his success. IF Alberto Hernandez, IF Waner Luciano, and OF Cesar Hernandez had disappointing seasons but will have another shot next season given their pedigree. 2024 draftees/signees OF Joey Sullivan, IF Caden Powell, IF Trevor Austin, and OF Lucas Spence all showed some good things in their late season stints. This lineup should be very deep and more experienced next season, so should win more games. On the pitching side, Fayetteville saw a lot of arms succeed and move on; 2023 draftees Jackson Nezuh, Ethan Pecko, Colby Langford, and James Hicks all conquered A ball, as did international arms Alain Pena, Dawil Almonte, and Wilmy Sanchez. Anderson Brito continued his rapid ascent and looks like a top prospect. An amazing 32 arms had a k/9 >9 for Fayetteville this season. There were a ton of good young arms left on their staff and combined with the 2024 draftees they should be excellent next season. Asheville began 2024 with a less talented roster than Fayetteville and quickly saw their most talented players promoted. Infielders Brice Matthews, Pascanel Ferreras, and Jeron Williams all made quick work of High A and moved up to AA by midseason. OF Luis Baez, 3B Austin Deming, OF Logan Cerny, and 1B Luis Encarnacion also conquered the level. C/1B John Garcia and IF Narbe Cruz performed well but for some reason were not promoted. OF Tyler Whitaker, OF/1B Cam Fisher, OF/1B Oliver Carrillo, C Garret Guillemette, and IF Ryan Johnson all had disappointing seasons and will be under pressure to perform early next season. C Walker Janek, OF Kenni Gomez, and OF Anthony Huezo, and IF Alejandro Nunez got late auditions in Asheville and will be breakout candidates if they start back there next season. The Tourists pitching staff was a mixed bag but still saw a good handful of guys pitch well enough to move up; Joey Mancini, Trey Dombroski, James Hicks, Jeremy Molero, Ethan Pecko, Jake Bloss, and Alejandro Torres all graduated to AA. Derek True, Andrew Taylor, Nolan DeVos, Jose Guedez, and Alain Pena make for a good group of SP who should start in Asheville next season. Asheville’s 2025 opening day roster probably wont be as stacked as Fayetteville’s or Sugar Land’s projects to be, but there will be talent there; it just might not be enough for a winning team.
I honestly think promoting quickly is a good model as long as player isn't way over their head. Failing fast is a good thing and helps them develop the skills that they need. In some cases, players acclimate fast and could get to the show faster. For position players, its beneficial since young players get injured less. For pitchers, I think you have to be careful with their workload. For Brice, he looks like he can handle it. Worst case, he takes his lumps in AAA and figures out what he needs to do to succeed. Best case, he wrecks AAA and he gets to come up for the show to get his feet wet at the end of the season and gets invited to Spring training next season with the legit shot of making the 40 man roster.
I wouldn’t argue that he’s the best athlete in the system, but I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s by a wide margin. Jacob Melton, Pedro Leon, Yamal Encarnacion, Zach Cole, Logan Cerny, Bryce Boettcher, and Kenedy Corona are all extremely good athletes. Nehomar Ochoa probably has equal overall physical upside to Matthews (just more power and less speed). Jordan Brewer was an elite athlete in the system before he was released.
Would be good to see these dudes run a basketball game to have a definitive answer, athleticism only takes you so far in baseball anyways. Brice Matthews reminds me of baseball Kyler Murray, always wonder what he would’ve been.
Colton Gordon is gonna have to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. 3.26 era in 6 August starts followed by a 0.75 era in 2 September starts, 13 k against 1 bb this month. Him, Blubaugh, and Gusto make for a solid set of AAA SP to give the Astros depth/insurance next year that they didn’t have at the start of this season.
The following Astros minor leaguers were selected in the Dominican Winter League (LIDOM) rookie draft: Águilas Cibaeñas RHP Wilmy Sanchez RHP Yeriel Santos Tigres del Licey IF Yamal Encarnación Gigantes del Cibao IF Pascanel Ferreras RHP Abel Mercedes RHP Rafael Gonzalez Estrellas Orientales IF Luis Encarnación RHP Sandy Mejia
Quarterback, the Quick Footwork, euro step, side step by Brice Matthews. Very Impressive. NFL QB and MLB SS, 3B. Maybe Basketball, Track. Deion Sanders was a NFL CB and MLB CF. Basketball, Track
C Miguel Palma was promoted to AAA today. He is a decent prospect; good k/bb numbers and before this season showed some decent power. His production was down this season due to low BABIP and power. Cant be sure if this is temporary or a preemptive promotion in anticipation of him starting there next season, but could be a good sign.
Luis Encarnacion hit his 3rd AA HR in 8 AA games tonight. Astros prospects Since 2006, age 21 or younger, AA, wRC+ >100, k%<20%, min 30 pa: 2015 Carlos Correa 2011 Jose Altuve 2015 Brett Phillips 2024 Luis Encarnacion 2017 Kyle Tucker 2014 Colin Moran
