Reading the blurb on Chapman made me wish Houston had just let Pedro Leon play only CF rather than trying to force him into having utility potential. His k/bb numbers are pretty similar to Chapman’s in the minors, and with his speed and arm he probably wouldn’t even need to hit for as much power as Chapman to be nearly as valuable.
Matt Chapman. His AAA k rates were over 30%, and thats why he was lower down on prospect lists. But he had tremendous defensive value, hit for enormous power, and posted consistent double digit walk rates, all of which he continued to do when he reached the majors. Leon has similar bb/k numbers, but he doesn’t have the same projected value on defense even though his arm and legs are elite, and he hasn’t hit for the same power numbers, even though scouting reports and exit velos put him in the same tier as Chapman in terms of power potential. Leon still has a shot to be a really really good player.
Gotcha. Chapman was/is (used-to-be) a complete wizard at 3B, which makes up for a whole lot of offensive deficiencies. eta: now that I'm thinking about it, over the past 20 years or whatever he's right there with Rolen/Beltre/David Wright/Donaldson as the best I've seen.
Houston has no prospects on Fangraphs 2024 Top 100, which was released today. In the AL West: Rangers (3): Langford, Carter, Walcott Mariners (4): Young, Ford, Emerson, Farmelo Angels (0) A’s (3): Morales, Salinas, Miller https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-top-100-prospects/
https://climbingtalshill.com/posts/...ican-league-in-trade-with-padres-01hpm47ktfj9 Normally Climbing Tal’s Hill is garbage. But this post did make me think about the potential impact of the age fraud on Houston. It’s possible they had a sizable chunk of international signing bonus money suddenly come available and found a match in SD to make use of it. If they felt Carrillo was worth $700k+ in bonus money then that bodes well for his value; I’d be really interested in seeing the details of that trade and how much slot money Houston sent the Padres.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2024-top-100-prospects/ More negativity. ZIPs is extremely low on Houston’s farm. None in its top 100, only 1 in the top 200, and only 10 in the top 500. It paints Houston’s system as easily one of the worst in the league. While I do think ZIPs has value, I think it is especially illsuited to value Houston’s prospects, because it relies on stat models over multiple years. Most of Houston’s best prospects only have 1 full season of stats.
I think this goes back to what we were talking about a couple of days ago There are probably just as many guys in our system that have a chance to become average MLB players as in most systems. But we lack the high end prospects. I think this is why Brown went with a high upside low floor approach to his first draft, and I think he will do the same again next year. Only need to hit on a couple of them and all of the sudden things look much brighter.
The farm system has lots of questions but it certainly has more than one of the top 200 players in the minors.
This gives me hope that with a few adjustments Cabbage can become an above avg player. Everything is there it appears for him to become successful. I'm guessing he's got a hole in his swing that they're trying to fix. Kind of like what they're currently working on with Gomez.
I was looking back at the threads from the last 2 seasons and it struck me how much draftees can raise their stock in their first full season. Guys like Dezenzo and Loperfido went from honorable mention types outside the top 30 to org top 10 guys (and in Dezenzo’s case a top 100 type) in a single year. Some (myself included) are very high on the HS kids (Jaworsky, Ochoa, and Huezo), but we have no idea what guys like Ryan Johnson, Jeron Williams, Austin Deming, Garret Guillemette, and Cam Fisher will do. Any one of those guys could blow up and reach AA, where they could end up projecting as core guys. Deming is the only one who would really surprise me, all the others at least appear to have the tools.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/picks-to-click-who-we-expect-to-make-the-2025-top-100/ Alonzo Tredwell and Brice Matthews were on Fangraphs list of prospects they project to make next year’s top 100. Generally about 30% of their picks end up actually making the next top 100. I was mildly surprised none of Melton and Dezenzo and Baez made this list. Those 5 guys plus Corona could all easily be in the end of year top 100 prospects if they make a big jump. Loperfido and Leon have that kind of ceiling but would probably graduate this season if they have that good of a year. Guys like Jaworsky, Ochoa, and Huezo also have that kind of ceiling, but probably won’t get enough time in full season ball until next year. Tyler Whitaker and Zach Cole are 2 strikeout prone guys who could make a huge jump if they correct that issue. There are probably a dozen arms capable of making that jump but they all carry too much risk to know which ones are most likely.
I didn't know Sarris had Stuff+ for AAA. From looking through his Google doc, he has France followed by Dubin, Solis, and Whitley in the top 100 for Stuff+ for 2023. Good for Solis...
I was really surprised Solis was not invited to big league spring training. That makes me suspect he’s hurt (again).
Grouping position player prospects: High floor, low ceiling guys: Luke Berryhill, Will Wagner, Quincy Hamilton, Miguel Palma, Jeremy Arocho High ceiling strikeout risk guys with defensive value and power: Kenedy Corona, Pedro Leon, Joey Loperfido, Shay Whitcomb, Justin Dirden, Jordan Brewer, Zach Dezenzo, Zach Daniels, Jacob Melton, Brice Matthews, Zach Cole, Logan Cerny High ceiling TBD youngsters: Will Bush, Waner Luciano, Camilo Diaz, Chase Jaworsky, Alberto Hernandez, Luis Baez, Kenni Gomez, Anthony Huezo, Nehomar Ochoa, Esmil Valencia, Eduardo Perez, Cesar Hernandez, Luis Rives, Dauri Lorenzo, German Ramirez TBD college draftees: Garret Guillemette, Austin Deming, Jeron Williams, Ryan Johnson, Cam Fisher Other interesting prospects: Cristian Gonzalez, Collin Barber, Oliver Carrillo
I like the way you grouped it together, that second list seems to be the most interesting of the 2. You can’t say any of those guys are elite prospects, but a lot have elite individual tools. Ideally two or three of those guys makes it out of the bunch and is a great player, but equally likely they all flame out.
I would guess from all the players in that whole list, 1-2 will become stars, 2-3 more will become solid/fringe regulars, and another 5-7 will become above-replacement bench/role players. So that’s 8-12 decent big league position players that will trickle in over the next 3-5 years.
Astros related stuff from fangraphs prospect chat: Chris: How far was Jose Fleury from your pick to click next year? Eric A Longenhagen: He’s super weird. This is a little Astros righty with an uphill low-90s fastball, he throws a ton of really excellent changeups and cutters, pretty even pitch mix. I don’t think it’ll work in a way that he’ll ever be on the Top 100, he only sits like 91 mph, but he should be a really deceptive long reliever sliptoad: thoughts on brice matthews replacing bregman at third? people on the astros subreddit seem to think that’s the future but based on your picks to click writeup he seems far too raw for that kind of timeline Eric A Longenhagen: agree with you more than the redditors. He’s SO raw. Super gifted, though. Would expect a lower burn. But hey, George Springer was also a talented mess when he was drafted… Eric A Longenhagen: so was derek fisher DH: I was a bit surprised not to see Joey Loperfido in the top 100 given his proximity and versatility. Does he look more like a 45, and if so, why? Eric A Longenhagen: you have it gauged right, contact rates aren’t good but I really like him, had him stuffed on HOU list last year and will be in a similar spot as a march thru team lists https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-prospect-week-chat/
