LIke I said- that would be my final stop on throwing **** against the wall before I cut bait. It's not like I'm suggesting that this is going to be awesome (this is going to be awesome though)
I think Ort might be sort of good. I'm intrigued. I'd move Presley this offseason- repurpose that money somehwere else Hader, Abreu, Scott, Arrighetti or LMJ or Garcia (if one of those guys come back healthy), Mufree, Ort, Whitley and King might be a pretty intriguing bullpen. I'm assuming you could get a couple lotto tickets for Presley to move him without having to pay any of his salary if he vests on his 1/15M deal. If it's not that low leverage that's fine too. I'd like to see space for Bluebagh and Snake's guy and other minor league starters to have a chance to break in as low leverage bullpen guys and get looks there before having to count on them in 26.
McCullers and Garcia are going to be huge factors in determining Houston’s offseason plans. If they both are back healthy and look good before the season ends, it frees up a lot of options. I personally think McCullers should be treated as a RP going forward, in which case yes I think it might make sense to trade Pressly. Knowing Verlander’s option won’t vest frees up $17M they had previously committed, so we can assume they’ll at least have that money available. I like both Whitley and Dubin as low leverage guys. And I am also intrigued by Ort. Martinez, Whitley, and Dubin will be out of options. I do have a lot of confidence in Houston’s ability to continue to mine AAAA arms and their rising minor leaguers to fortify the bullpen as needed. The main lesson they need to learn is to have 6 healthy effective SP on the big league roster on opening day and 5 guys in AAA that they’d be comfortable calling up to start at any time. SP: Framber, Brown, Blanco, Garcia, Arrighetti RP: Hader, Abreu, McCullers, Scott, Whitley, Martinez, Dubin, Ort AAA SP: Blubaugh, Gusto, Gordon, France, Ullola The main thing I think they will need to add is one established starter. Doesn’t have to be an ace, but it needs to be someone who can start a playoff game.
Most relievers are basically impossible to count on from year to year. That's why it shouldn't be more than 15-20% of the budget. A team must be constantly developing guys and shuttling them up and down during their pre-arb years while they have options to keep the bullpen fresh. Once they have done that for 2 or 3 years the cream will rise. The best will become leverage guys as the veterans become too expensive. Occasionally a very good guy will earn an extension. The only time a team should sing an expensive FA leverage reliever is if he is as close to dependable as relievers get, and the team has young cheap talent so he doesn't put the team in a salary bind and maybe a need for veteran leadership.
I really like the young arms that Brown has brought in. The problem is that so few of them will have options next year that some will need to be traded or DFA'd throughout 2025 to keep the bullpen fresh. Sousa is another guy who has not been mentioned much. He will still have an option for 2025 if he isn't ever optioned to AAA this season. Potential 2025 bullpen No options Hader Pressly Scott Whitley Ort Dubin Martinez Mushinski Suero Options Abreu (1)* King (2) Murfee (3) Ortega (1) Sousa (1) N.Hernandez (2) Contreras (2) Coleman (1) *Abreu will only have an option until he hits 5 years of service time which should be early in September 2025.
If they trade Pressly and JV's option doesn't vest then that knocks 32 mil off of the roster and almost pays for next year's Abreu, Montero screwups I think Brown should be able to get a good young prospect that's MLB ready for Pressly, in addition to shedding his contract. A lot of teams could use a closer like Pressly.
Post-Deadline Stock Report Way Up Anderson Brito - Brito started his career as one of the final signings of the 2023 IFA period, getting a $10,000 bonus out of Venezuela. Now, he's in the top 10 of this system (at least that's what I think). Up Jackson Nezuh - Hard to say his stock isn't up when he's leading the system in strikeouts. ERA is over 4 because he gave up 14 runs in his final 3 appearances in April. A good showing in Asheville should put him in position to possibly see time with the Astros in 2025. Given the current state of this pitching staff, anyone's a possibility. Ethan Pecko, James Hicks - Guys who go up two levels in their first pro seasons are definitely trending up. Both should get good tests in Corpus and again, judging by what we've seen with the big club this season, one of Hicks, Pecko, or Nezuh may be needed in Houston in 2025. Shay Whitcomb - No position player in the system has done more to improve his stock than Whitcomb has. Walking more. Cut his strikeout rate by over 10%. He's made the adjustments and it didn't sacrifice the big power numbers he's put up since turning pro. Where will he play on defense, who knows? His bat now looks like it can be viable at the MLB level. Yeriel Santos - Couldn't have asked for a better full-season debut. Like Miguel Ullola, give him every chance to start until he proves he can't handle that workload. Brice Matthews - Unfortunate that he missed a decent chunk of time this year. The tools have been on full display. Just gotta rein in the strikeouts a bit and we've got a legit star. He's my #1 prospect in the system right now. Nehomar Ochoa, Chase Jaworsky - The numbers don't look great, but they were teenagers who kept their heads above water in their first shot at a full-season league. Expect them to take off in Asheville. Steady Kenni Gomez - Another teen with helium entering his first full season, Gomez has done an acceptable job. Great feel to hit, but the ceiling hinges on how much power he'll hit for in the future. From what Nook has said, he seems like a decent kid, but it also sounds like he has baggage away from baseball and needs a lot of good influences around him. Steady but I'm kind of starting to sour Jacob Melton - Melton made it to Sugar Land, but honestly, he's had a really meh year. He's possibly looking at make-or-break time in 2025. More like Jacob Meh-lton, amirite? Down Luis Baez - Baez came in with big hype. He was a big-dollar IFA signing who tore up the complex leagues. This seems rather harsh because he's had a decent year, but he hit the wall hard in July (.146/.182/.305; 28 strikeouts are the most he's had in any month this year). So he is most likely showing some wear as it's also his first time in a full-season league. His numbers also exhibit signs of the Asheville Effect so it might be deceptively decent. At 20, Baez is far from a finished product, but he has a bit more pressure added now that he's essentially a corner-only OF. Trey Dombroski - Honestly, I'm being harsh here. But putting a guy with middling stuff in a launching pad was not going to produce good results in any respect. Dombroski should rebound in Corpus and his peripherals were still decent. Now we get to see how resilient he is, because I'm sure he's never been shelled like that before at any level of baseball. Does he have anything in the tank that he hasn't tapped yet? But then again, Dallas Keuchel carved out a pretty nice career despite barely cracking 91 for years. Kinda funny that a larger dude like Dombroski has Keuchel-esque stuff, is all. Jose Fleury - Struggled in his first shot at AA and was hampered by injury. Hopefully he can rebound next year. Way Down Kenedy Corona - What the hell happened? Cam Fisher - The extreme strikeout risk makes him a low-fringe guy at best and a JAG at worst. My Top 30 1. Brice Matthews 2. Zach Dezenzo 3. A.J. Blubaugh 4. Walker Janek 5. Luis Baez 6. Ethan Pecko 7. Anderson Brito 8. Jacob Melton 9. Alonzo Tredwell 10. Nehomar Ochoa 11. Ryan Forcucci 12. Miguel Ullola 13. Zach Cole 14. Shay Whitcomb 15. Kenni Gomez 16. James Hicks 17. Ryan Gusto 18. Colton Gordon 19. Yeriel Santos 20. Chase Jaworsky 21. Trey Dombroski 22. Jose Fleury 23. Quincy Hamilton 24. Jackson Nezuh 25. Forrest Whitley 26. Jeron Williams 27. Luis Rodriguez 28. Esmil Valencia 29. Eduardo Perez 30. Alimber Santa Next 10, no particular order Miguel Palma Sandro Pereira German Ramirez Parker Smith Caden Powell Alain Pena Jose Guedez Joey Mancini Derek True Jancel Villarroel In terms of big names, there's a big dropoff after Matthews, Dezenzo, and Janek. But, as we've all seen, the Astros do not particularly care whether their guys make Top 100 lists... they've been getting the guys they have to the majors. They've done well in building a stockpile of arms, especially in the last couple of drafts and I've said it a bunch, they're going to have to draw from that pile if the MLB staff continues to run into injury/effectiveness issues. The only dings on that front are Nolan DeVos, Andrew Taylor, and Michael Knorr going down. DeVos in Corpus would've put him in the 5-10 system range. The pitching depth has also gotten a boost from the Latin arms coming over, like Yeriel Santos, Alain Pena, and Jose Guedez (who is unfortunately done for the year). Getting Luis Rodriguez via the Corey Julks trade looks like a shrewd bit of business too. Still hoping that one of the IFA bats hits. Sandro Pereira might be the best bet based on his bat-to-ball skills, and Eduardo Perez's power potential is tantalizing.
This is great. I would say let’s wait and see what happens with Dombroski in Corpus. Jaworsky, Ochoa, Gomez, and even Bush have a good shot at major breakouts next year in Asheville. That park/league will make them look great. Overall positives: Pitching depth improved. Matthews and Dezenzo moved into potential star territory. Whitcomb, Leon, and Hamilton broke out. The draft added Janek and Forcucci and others who might be good. overall negatives: They lost Loperfido, Arrighetti, Wagner, and Bloss to graduation/trade. Melton and Baez did not take steps forward as hoped. Corona and Barber busted.
Great list, tellitlikeitis. I agree wholeheartedly that there's a clear 1-2 with Matthews and Dezenzo. I think our system may be a bit underrated at the moment, because none of the big publications consider those two future stars, but I certainly do. I keep saying it, but I think Dezenzo's bat is truly special. He's showing zone control, good swing decisions, command of the zone...he's got such outlandish swing speed and exit velocities that if he keeps doing that, I could absolutely see a .900 OPS type ceiling.
I'm pretty sure they won't be trading Pressly. And if they try he has full 10/5 no trade protection. I think Ryan is the kind of guy who wants to be here and a trade is very very unlikely.
Kenni Gomez and Nehomar Ochoa Jr. Have birthdays within 3 months of each other. Both just turned 19. Gomez actually has a higher slugging % than Ochoa. Gomez has walked more, struck out less. Also Gomez has the luxury of being a center fielder. I would say both of them have represented themselves well in Fayetteville this year. Nezuh is in my top 10 and Brito in my top 5. I also have Colby Langford safely in my top 20
Fangraphs has updated their Top 100 prospects list and Jacob Melton is at 55. Former Astros Jake Bloss made the list at 92. They also considered Joey Loperfido, but ultimately decided to leave him where he was as a 45 FV prospect The listed Alberto Hernandez as the Astros #2 prospect, just outside the Top 100. I wish I could see what they see in him. Their report on him sounds pretty good though. Brice Matthews is also just outside the Top 100.
