Thanks Nook … but these repeated “if they remain healthy” caveats are different from prior years and make it clear how sensitive this roster is. If Framber, Javier, Yordan, Brown, Peña, Bregman, Altuve, or Tucker goes down (in roughly that order), the season is essentially over. A dangerous place to be in … and a good reminder that even after a game like this one, the real goal is to pray for health every night.
If Brantley and McCullers return healthy and perform at last year's level then this team will be a contender without adding anyone else. It's just getting harder and harder to count on that. And it just feels like there is the smallest margin for error that this team has had in years. One injury from any of 6-8 players could cripple their chances. Adding a SP and LH bat could really help reduce that risk and make them as formidable as any team in recent memory if Brantley and McCullers do end up returning.
The Red Sox are in a brutal division and down to 12% chance of making playoffs according to baseball reference and 22% according to Fan Graphs. Chris Sale is very expensive ( $25.6M this and next year). This and his injury history could make the trade cost for him affordable. He also has full no trade protection. But he has Ace talent, is healthy now and pitching well. He is a gamble but could be a difference maker. Alex Verdugo has 1 year of control left via arbitration and could significantly improve the lineup vs right handed pitching. Adding the 2 of them would be a huge improvement. I wonder if Boston would be interested in selling if their playoff odds don't improve as the deadline gets closer?
With Abreu, McCullers, and Montero already not performing up to their contracts I don't think the Astros should take the risk of bringing in Sale.
If he's healthy at the trade deadline, you take him as long as it doesn't require a lot of elite prospects. He really would only be a gamble for next year but would definitely increase our chances this year. With our projected 6 man rotation next year, we could easily do some creative load management with him. I would be willing to bet McCullers could have come back a lot faster but they are load managing him because no one including McCullers trust that he could last more than a half season. So if you are going to have him for only a part of a season, which part would you want him to play?
The Astros front office anticipates being active at the trade deadline. Communication between front office/field/owner very strong and on same page for needs. They have already reached out to other teams. Primarily want a starting pitcher, bat and possibly reliever. Will not force a bigger trade, but have finances short and long term to add someone. Have spoken to teams about well thought of pitchers with some control left - Sale and Cease. Some concern over the amount of hard hits Cease has given up but fixable. Others possible at reasonable cost like Giolito, Stroman, Singer. Offensively mostly have looked at guys that can play the corner outfield, some possible 1st and DH. White Sox discussing moving Eloy Jimenez.... McCutchen mentioned. Astros willing to move some players off their big league roster if it helps the team. FWIW
Some talk of the Astros jettisoning some salary to bring in more salary. No idea who that would be. Chas McCormick is someone the Astros have talked to other teams but he doesn't make very much money.
Pairing Chaz with a decent lefthanded bat likely gets you over an .800 OPS from LF and provides injury depth across the OF. It seems foolish to trade him for pennies on the dollar instead of utilizing his strengths. If Brantley comes back that would be ideal, but it's dangerous to count on at this point. You can always use him some at 1st and as a valuable pinch hitter if he does come back. I get the preference for a full time player, but it seems like a waste of assets unless you are getting a major impact bat. By the end of the year we should have a better read on what Jake Meyers is, you can always trade away one of them later to make room for Gilbert. I get why Brown is holding out on trading for a starter, but I don't think we should wait too much longer. We are playing with fire running Bielak and France out there so often and piling innings on Brown and Javier, who have never done it for a full season.
Not sure who they could move to get rid of salary unless they are willing to trade Pressly or Neris which makes no sense. Maybe try and dump Brantley if you take on a big salary and Brantley isn't healthy. Just not seeing where they can carve out any real significant amount of payroll.
Jimenez for McCormick actually seems like a fair trade that would improve both teams. Jimenez is a more stable higher upside bat who is limited to LF. McCormick is lower upside but has more versatility and defensive value. McCormick is also a bit less expensive. White Sox have a lot of players who can help Houston. Astros get: SP Lucas Giolito OF Eloy Jimenez C Yasmani Grandal RP Kendall Graveman White Sox get: OF Chas McCormick C Yainer Diaz RHP Spencer Arrighetti RHP Enoli Paredes Resulting playoff roster: 2B Altuve 3B Bregman DH Alvarez LF Jimenez RF Tucker 1B Abreu C Grandal SS Pena CF Meyers Bench: Dubon, Maldonado, Brantley (or Julks or Gilbert), Salazar (or Lee) Rotation: Framber, Brown, Giolito, Javier Bullpen: Pressly, Abreu, Neris, Graveman, Maton, Montero, Stanek, McCullers (or Bielak or Martinez or France or Mushinski), Urquidy (or Bielak or Martinez or France or Mushinski)
From what I was told, they aren't trying to dump McCormick - he has value, but they are willing to move him for an upgrade that they want at a different spot or a different type of player.
I love Chas but truth is that Meyers' breakout makes him expendable. They are too similar. Meyers has the higher ceiling and the more he raises his floor the less valuable Chas is to this team.
This is where i am at. The Astros have the month of June and July where the 11 out of 16 series are against either above .500%/competing for the playoffs. It's important for Houston to land either 2nd or first seed.
Jimenez makes a bunch of sense for the Astros. I'm not sure how much sense it makes for Chicago except that he is basically a DH and they have Sheets and Colas who are younger and cheaper and also poor fielders/DH only players. His $6.178M AAV jumps to $13M for 2024 if he's traded and has $16.5M and $18.5M club options for 2025 and 2026. Each has a $3M buyout. But he has always hit RH pitching well and the Astros don't need him to play the field often if at all.
How much of an upgrade is Jimenez over Chas? He's been about 10% better at the plate over his career with much worse defense. He's also a RHB so you can't platoon him with Chas (if you keep him), Dubon, or Diaz. Just doesn't seem to offer much upside unless he hits better than his career numbers. imo, just like this past off-season, the two biggest areas in need of an upgrade are 1B and C...with SP added to that list in light of LMJ/Garcia. You know what would be interesting? Working Diaz in at 1B and finding a bad ass catcher to trade for at the deadline. Too bad that can't happen.
I expect Chas would be included in a deal for him but to answer your question. . . Chas: .746 career OPS .422 career SLG .679 career OPS vs RHP (.606 in 2023) .374 career SLG vs RHP (.322 in 2023) Jimenez: .829 career OPS .501 career SLG .848 career OPS vs RHP (.809 in 2023) .518 career SLG vs RHP (.476 in 2023) Eloy is a reverse splits guy who handles RH pitching better than LHP. Therefore he would be a natural platoon partner with Chas. Furthermore, Eloy is a SLG over OBP guy which fits better in the 6-8 spots in the order. Chas is more balanced between the two. Regardless Eloy is a much better hitter than Chas and with Yordan able to play LF defense isn't as important.
Actually, Jordan Montgomery or Eduardo Rodriguez makes since as a SP addition. Along with J. Solar, Tyler Stephenson, maybe an outside chance on Salvador Perez but doubtful also A.J Puk is another good name to watch.
Eloy doesn't have wide splits like Chas and is an above average batter agaisnt both LHPs and RHPs. He could platoon with Chas provided he doesn't get hurt. Though, Eloy has played a lot of DH. He's quite a bit better of a hitter when he doesn't have the DH penalty. Granted, I'd probably play Alvarez more in LF as if the Astros are going to have a bad LF, I'd rather Alvarez not be the one with the DH penalty.
Montgomery makes sense, except that the Cardinals already have about 20 position players better than any we would try to include in the deal. Pitching is what they need so they just don't match up well. Rodriguez has an opt out, so the Astros would have to pay for a pitcher under contract for 1 1/2 seasons, but likely to lose him after this year unless he's hurt then must pay him to sit on the IL. I always like Puk. I haven't even looked at bullpen arms, but Hendriks would be good. I wonder what Giolito, Jimenez, Hendriks, and Grandal from Chicago would cost? We would have 5 2022 White Sox on the 26 man roster lol.
