2023 Trade Targets

Meyers and Chaz are legit options at CF, but we desperately need a lefty bat to offset their weakness if we're gonna try them in LF. Yaz with Giants has been mentioned.

Jake Fraley with the Reds crushes righties, I wonder how much it would take to get him. A pure platoon with him and Chaz in LF would seem to be extremely productive with Chaz/Meyers sharing reps in CF. We could always use the 3rd guy of the trio to pinch hit late if needed. That would lock up a productive OF for 3 years.

If Brantley were to come back and play some 1st base....we would be looking pretty.

 

Both Yaz and Fraley have 3 years of control left.

I can't see the team bringing in a LH OF bat unless Brantley is done for the year AND the guy is a low cost rental. 3 years of conttol in this case is a negative.

With Gilbert, Barber, Loperfido, Melton, and maybe others I haven't thought of all having good seasons and moving up quickly one or more of them would get blocked by a more expensive player.

Chas and Meyers crush lefties but are only slightly below average vs righties. Both Yaz and Fraley are very bad vs lefties.

Give me the more consistent guy who won't suddenly become a huge negative if a lefty/righty reliever is brought in to face him in a big spot. And neither can run or defend nearly as well as Jake or Chas.

I think Brantley is the answer. If Brantley can't go and the team decides it needs a LH bat then find a cheap rental at the deadline but don't bring in someone who is severely limited by platoon splits or defensively and then gets in the way of the top prospects in 2024 and even 2025.

Chas and Jake are both good enough vs RH pitching to avoid that.

 

Why?

The Astros are still gonna play baseball the next 3 seasons, and the platoon would still be productive and relatively cheap. If necessary you can always resell one of them, they aren't glued to your franchise forever.

 

I would give up Chaz or Meyers, plus a lower level prospect like Santos for Giolito. Then trade for a Carpenter type guy using a Julks like prospect as trade bait. This shouldn't be hard to do. Gotta add 1 more top tier reliever too. Chapman is the guy I would add. Of course we all know catcher is an issue, but since Dusty wont play anybody other than Maldy making a trade would be a waste of prospects.

 

The Mariners playoff odds have fallen over the last couple weeks. If they sell, Ty France, Eugenio Suarez, and Teoscar Hernandez might make varying degrees of sense as trade targets. France comes with 2 more years of control so he’d be expensive but I would really like him if the Astros are ready to start giving up on Abreu; plus France has some versatility so even if they want to give Abreu some more time France can fill in as an everyday sub across 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, and DH.

The Cubs also appear to be fading. Stroman and Smyly make sense if Houston decides they need to add to the rotation. It’s shame Bellinger had beef because he’d be a great fit for the lineup. Yan Gomes is also on the radar as a catcher target.

 

I think Brown wants to make his mark by bringing up young guys rather than trading for veterans.

I like Yaz and have actually brought him up in the past. If Corpus, Fayetteville, and Asheville weren't so stocked with LH outfielders who look to become solid or better MLBers then I would have a different take.

But I still think Yaz and Fraley's terrible numbers vs LH make them options that we as fans would end up screaming about when Dusty refuses to pinch hit for them when a LF reliever is brought in and embarrasses them in an important at bat.

 

From another thread where Gilbert's development was talked about possibly making Chas and/or Meyers expendable the question becomes how do you value Chas. I think it would be interesting to see what people come up with. I think he's really hard to value.

Chas plays a competent CF. He kills LHP like an all star. He's a little below average against RHP. He would play a really good LF. His arm isn't great, so you wouldn't love him in RF- but he's perfectly fine to play there, even with the sub par arm. Chas has been worth 1 WAR for every 150 PA in his career. This year- he is worth 1 WAR for every 80 or 85 PA in a small sample size. That would seem to indicate that if he's playable as a regular he should be worth 3-5 WAR.
How much is Chas worth on the open market? I think he's as good or better than Benitendi who just got 75M. Others seem to think not so much I guess. If you were trading Chas what would the purpose be. I suggested salary relief (jettisoning Abreu) but at the end of the day any trade is about surplus value- how much are you giving up, how much are you receiving, in addition to filling the hole.
Would you move him for a Mid starting pitcher straight up? If so, how much control would you have to have. Back of the rotation guy? Prospects only?
Is Chas more valuable to us than anyone else? Does he lose almost all his value if Gilbert hits as a big time guy?

 

McCormick wouldn’t get near $75M on the open market if he were a free agent. He’d probably be looking at somewhere between $27M/3yrs and $42M/4yrs. Go find me a player who has never ever topped 407 pa in a season and signed for >$50M as a free agent. Now if he keeps playing well for another couple years he could raise his value a lot.

I think McCormick has between $15M and $40M in surplus value; he doesn’t have that extensive of a track record so there’s a wide range. The right team with the right FO and roster hole might be willing to give up a prospect from the back end of the Top 100 plus another prospect from their org 10-20 range.

For now I fully expect McCormick to remain more valuable to Houston than any other team. That could change this offseason (or next) and look to the way Marisnick was used then traded as a barometer, although I do think McCormick is a little more valuable than Marisnick.

 

I wonder if Pete Putila in SF might like to retool for next year with some of his old farm hands.

Alex Cobb is having a great season after several down years. He has a very affordable club option that won't make him cheap but they have 4 other veteran starters under contract for next year and may want to sell high.

Then they can buy low on another veteran to rekindle his career. Thats what they do, after all. It would be tougher with 5 veterans under contract

Pete was farm director when Chas was drafted and will probably see his value. Add 2-3 high ceiling guys he is familiar with and it may work.

Say: Alex Cobb for Chas McCormick, Joe Perez, and Misael Tamarez?

 

I loved Jake. He was so deficient with the bat I don’t think you can compare Chas with his career 110 OPS+. Yes- him getting Beni money would require him to play everyday. He should be an every day guy imo- it’s no fault of his he hasn’t been. If he has 40M in surplus value you ought to be able to unload most of Abreu’s contract if that’s the direction you wanted to go, but yeah- probably prospects. I’d like to see a 3B with a decent bat for him if you were going prospects. Bregman insurance if Bregman moves on or slide over to first base and take over for Abreu when his contract is up or when the Astros give up on him.

 

Gilbert does not change McCormick's value. He just moves it from the outfield to whatever we trade him for.

 

I’m sure. I meant lose hai value to us relative to what we’d rather have.

 

Took another looks at projections (both for the rest of this season and 2024-2027) and I am pretty convinced this team really only has one need: a veteran catcher who is an above average hitter. It would be a bonus if the player was under control beyond 2023.

They aren’t going to bench Abreu during the 2023 regular season, but they should probably figure out a way to have an option to replace him in the playoff lineup. There’s a chance Brantley could solve that problem if he comes back healthy and they are able to work him in enough at 1B to trust him there in the postseason. But I don’t relish the idea of relying on that solution.

But I think the front office has known this would be a potential need since the beginning of the season. They very likely didn’t foresee Abreu’s struggles, but they may have had concerns about Brantley’s viability prior to opening day. To me, the only reason it makes sense for them to have kept Salazar on the roster this whole time is if they wanted the ability to use Diaz elsewhere and if they expect to have 3 catchers for the entire season.

Looking around at the league’s catchers, Salvador Perez stands out as a perfect match. After him, there’s Yasmani Grandal, who also looks like a very good fit but is a rental. The 3rd best fit appears to be Elias Diaz, who is having a great season so far but whose projections aren’t that great. Then there are 3 guys on teams who might be sellers (or might not be) who aren’t necessarily that good: Yan Gomes (Cubs), Mike Zunino (Guardians), and Jacob Stallings (Marlins). Finally, there are 2 good catchers on likely selling teams who are under long term control, so it’s hard to guess if they’d be available or what their price would be: Tyler Stephenson and Cal Raleigh.

I feel like Perez is just too much of a match. He has a fairly hefty contract without much (if any) projected surplus value, but is also a franchise icon who KC loves and has been very reluctant to trade to this point despite selling at the last several deadlines. Pedro Leon and Forrest Whitley seems like a fair package for Perez. Both prospects have immense upside and pedigree but their stock is a bit down. They might somewhat satiate fans who don’t understand the economics of baseball while still being a fair price for Houston.

 

I will believe Maldonado being relegated to backup only once I've seen it.

They could trade for some combo of Buster Posey and Johnny Bench and I wouldn't believe it, much less any of those other guys.

 

I wouldn’t expect a catcher acquisition to be the primary catcher during the 2023 regular season. I’d expect him to play similar to how Christian Vazquez was used last season, who only caught 30 games (and pinch hit in another 5) during the regular season. But I’d expect that player to also get 10-15 games at 1B. That creates the option for them to determine which player to remove from the lineup during the playoffs (Maldonado or Abreu).

I don’t expect Maldy back after this season, which is why Perez makes so much more sense than other options because he has 3 more years on his contract.

 

This makes a lot of sense.

But Diaz has so much potential and shown so much part of me just wants to roll with him.

Korey Lee has always been regarded as MLB calibur defensively and now is finally showing progress with the bat in AAA.

I still think Diaz's potential with the bat will move him off of catcher over the next few years.

I think I would like to see:

2023: Maldy 70%, Diaz 25%, Lee 5% ( call up late in year and playoffs)

2024: Diaz 50%, Lee 50%
*Diaz another 20-30% at 1B/ DH

2025: Lee 65%, Diaz 35%
*Diaz another 40-50% at 1B/DH

2026: Lee 75%, Diaz 25%
*Diaz another 55-70% at 1B/DH

As long as Lee keeps progressing in AAA I don't see the need for a veteran catcher unless he's a glove first backup.

 

Who is that (international free agents don’t count)

 

I also don't expect that stat to stay that way forever (the 407 AB's) but Jake is making a serious run so maybe it does.