2023 Trade Targets

Yes and fangraphs 2 weeks ago had us as a 34% chance to win the division and now it’s like 60%. I don’t think the Angels win the division, but they are certainly in contention and have made significant moves to try and get in the playoffs and if they do they will have a very legitimate chance to re-sign one of the best baseball players of all-time, if not the best.

 

While trading all their prospects… and still saddled with a luxury tax payroll with players who are consistently hurt… and they play in a division that has other teams with better rosters, now better farm systems, and more financial flexibility (presuming Moreno or whoever the new owner is doesn’t want to be a repeat tax offender for years).

Even making the playoffs and going out in 3-4 games gets you what? Does anybody even remember the Rays or Guardians in the playoffs last year?

 

Astros in my opinion are another dependable relief pitcher and a playoff caliber starting pitcher away.
If they add those pieces we could make another serious run.
I don't think depending on one of our rookie starters to make it through every round is realistic.

 

That's assuming framber and Javier are not ****ed the rest of the year.

 

Who says they will be out in 3-4 games? People are always counting on past performances to predict team outcomes even if they have a dramatically different approach. Anyway, I just think if I was GM of the Angels, I would be doing the same thing. If it doesn’t work and Ohtani goes somewhere else then blow it up and start from scratch. They have lots of tradeable pieces besides Ohtani.

 

I don’t want to be watching the 2013 Astros next year, or even in 2026 or 2027.

However, prospects are just that. They are the currency of the future but you have no idea how much they will be worth in 3 years or 5 years.

Gas could be $2 per gallon or $5 gallon.

The Astros have kept this window open by developing prospects who contribute but also by using them to obtain high quality pieces to put the team over the top.

Crane has always been willing to add a 1-3 year commitment, its 6+ that has given him pause.

A deal for JV reminds me more of the Grienke trade exactly 4 years ago today.

The Astros gave up their #1 (Seth Beer MLB’s #100 ), #4 Bukauskas, #5 Corbin Martin, and #22 Rojas and the D’Backs kicked in a bit less than 1/3 of Zack’s remaining salary for 2 years + 1 playoff run.

Greinke was pretty solid-average for the Astros (22-9 w/ 3.89 ERA, 3.5 WAR over 51 starts and 300 innings) and helped get them to 2 World Series (as the favorite) and another ALCS.

Every one of us were on cloud 9 when that (huge surprise) deal was announced. And I bet we are all still happy now that it happened.

Apply the same values to a JV deal this year and the deal is: Gilbert, Clifford, Leon, and Dubin + about $20M w/o the option and $31M w/ it.

I would expect a younger, higher upside prospect than Dubin, like Rhett Kouba who is 23 and having a good season at AA and will undoubtably be on top prospect mid season lists when they come out.

That deal would hurt ( especially Clifford IMO), but prospects are like a box of chocolates.

 

It feels like this thesis (popular around baseball) assumes that Ohtani is super-dumb.

So the Angels, after 6 years, squeak into the playoffs once by desperately trading away a bunch of the talent they need to make the playoffs in future years ... so Ohtani looks at that and says "yeah, this looks like a great setup so let me stay here the next 10 years!" ?

The Angels' best way to keep Ohtani would have been to trade Ohtani for elite future pieces and then entice him to come back with the idea of "now we actually have the elite talent to win for the next many years".

 

I think you underestimate what “starting from scratch” is in baseball. Not a lot of other markets would tolerate what the Houston market was forced to go through from 2011-2015…. And since then, there have been other teams who tried that approach and are still spinning their wheels.

Also, the Angels had two “once in a lifetime” generational players and haven’t been able to do much with that… what makes you think they’ll automatically be successful with a re-do (not to mention, they’d still be on the hook for all those bad contracts even if they are able to trade them…)

 

I actually think the 8 pitchers currently in the bullpen are everybody as good as last year's bullpen.

It is, in fact, the same bullpen for the most part. The difference is they have pitched way more than last year and are simply gassed. Graveman gives them another leverage guy so the innings should be more spread out and reduced.

I think a SP who can start a playoff game and pitch 6+ innings regularly is the priority and helps the bullpen too.

A bat that helps vs RHP is #2.

Just do those 2 things and I go to battle with this team.

 

Ain't no way Ohtani stays with the angels.
He's been through the Tyler skaggs stuff, bad signings, current players with shitty attitudes, they aren't set up for success in the future, and one of the flagship MLB franchises will blow their loads on him.
Ohtani will want a consistent chance to win every year.
Imo only the dodgers, Yankees, and Astros can offer him that.

 

It is unlikely that any of the teams he signs with will be able to build a true contender around him. It just doesn’t seem to work out when you have one player making 1/3 of the teams payroll. I can’t think of a recent example where that has worked out (championship). Also, I’d bet Ohtani is ok being on a mediocre team being their best player, making $500,000 a game.

 

Red Sox want a controllable Pitcher close to value of Verdugo.
I think Bielak is close enough

 

If it takes both Gilbert and Clifford, I’m out. Even just Gilbert is iffy for me and I don’t think the Mets would hold out for both Gilbert and Clifford.

 

But there have been teams who have had a high priced pitcher and a high priced hitter concurrently…. He can and should get market value for each skill-set.

But yes, there are only a handful of teams that can afford him initially… and some of those teams may have to move him if it doesn’t look like its working out within the first few years.

 

There are no equivalents to Ohtani. Zero. This is a guy who fills two roles, he's two players. Star pitcher, MVP bat. That's worth 60 million a year. A contender could certainly build a team around that salary.

The Astros are paying a combined 59 million this year for Abreu, Brantley, Montero, and McCullers, just for context. Those guys have a combined -1.1 bWAR this year. The team is still on course for the playoffs.

 

Astros list of starting pitching.
Luis Garcia returns 2024 after surgery
Lance Mccullers returns 2024 after surgery
Urquidy returns soon after his rehab asgmt

Framber Valdez our ace
Javier, Cy Young candidate (preseason)
Hunter Brown is a JV protege
JP France stepped in a a rookie
Bielak has good games and some bad ones
Ronel Blanco took the winter league by storm
Dubin gets spot starts to fill in the gaps

Thats a list of 10.

Can we use any in an immediate trade or what? The good news is we have 10 starting pitchers. The bad news is we have 10 starting pitchers.

 

Blanco takes winter league by storm every year then stinks.
Dubin should be in the bullpen right now seeing if he has what it takes. His small sample size numbers show that he might. He can't get guys out over multiple innings.

 

I would really like to see Dubin, Bielak, and Gage get a consistent opportunity in the bullpen. I think all 3 of those guys have a chance to be pretty good bullpen arms.

 

Chris Young is running circles around the Astros front office, he did it this past offseason against our no GM Jeff Bagwell consultant BS, and he's doing it again on Dana Brown. Embarrassing.

I miss Luhnow and his cut throat attitude.