Hypothetically: Astros get: RP David Bednar Pirates get: CF Jake Meyers RHP Brandon Bielak RHP Spencer Arrighetti RHP Forrest Whitley Pirates get a long term OF that lets them sit Davis at DH when he’s not catching; a Reynolds/Meyers/Suwinski OF would be the best defensive OF in the league. They also bolster their pitching depth in a major way, which is their biggest need.
I like what I’ve seen from Kessinger, and while it would not be great to have to rely on them, I do think there’s a solid enough floor/ceiling combo in both Whitcomb (both SS/2B) and Leon (2B) that they’d be ok, so long as those guys were slotted 9th in the order.
Well, I think Pena should be slotted 9th in the order. LOL. He's worse at recognizing sliders that he was last season. If he could recognize pitches like Chas has learned how to do, he would be absolute stud.
If that's all it would take I'd jump on that. Would be surprised however if PITT is serious about trading him this yr.
Actually the numbers show he is recognizing the slider, and striking out much less... but sacrificed pretty much 95% of his power to make contact with the sliders and grounding out softly... and getting nothing when he makes contact with fastballs.
I hear you … but if the criteria is “would you listen to an offer for him?”, I think Presley is close to the top of people about whom I wouldn’t even discuss. It’s a matter of defining ‘value’, I suppose. Regardless, fun listen (halfway through episode 1)/.
If this is true, then it COULD (not convinced) be a sign of growth. He could develop the skills for recognition and contact and then bring back the power once he has achieved it.
I was comparing to the Hader trade from last year, Bednar comes with 2 more years of control and the market has increased, but Hader was about as highly coveted as a RP gets. Hader brought back a faded pitching prospect (Lamet), a fringe Top 100 OF prospect (Ruiz), an Org Top 10 pitching prospect (Gasser), and an established but struggling MLB RP (Rogers). I basically copied that return but with more valuable pieces (Lamet=Whitley, Ruiz=Meyers, Gasser=Arrighetti, Rogers=Bielak); this trade only works if the Pirates are bought in on Meyers as an above-average everyday CF and Bielak as a solid BoR SP.
Drew Gilbert. The Astros would get 3.5 years of Bednard at a low salary cost. It is one of those deals where you have to weigh everything. Do the Astros have other outfielders coming up that they view as similar or as good as Gilbert. Do the Astros want to spend 15 million a year for a good reliever on the market? There are a lot of variables. I will just say that it is nice to have key spots filled with elite players for several years. The Astros would have for the remainder of this year a pen of: Neris/Abreu/Bednard/Pressly After this season the Astros would likely let Neris walk and still have a pen of: Abreu/Bednard/Pressly and can add on around that.
Here’s my argument- I’d trade Presley for Hader (maybe) even though Hader is in a walk year, because I think Hader is better than Presley and Presley is owed 14M next year. I wouldn’t trade Peña or Gilbert for Hader because they just have so much more club control.
I think it would take more than that. Bednard has 2 more years of control and Hader was struggling when traded to the Padres. This is one of those deals like the Murphy/Olson/M. Chapman situations..... you either decide it is worth trading a very good prospect or a couple of good prospects for or you don't. In this particular case I would seriously consider it because it fills a need now, a need going forward, allows the Astros to let Neris walk and means for payroll flexibility and the Astros have a centerfielder already.
I understand the logic but I would not want the Astros to give up Gilbert for Bednar. I could imagine being swayed if the Pirates threw in another asset; either a big league RP like Angel Perdomo or a lower level prospect like Michael Kennedy or Lonnie White.
For an proven elite reliever with 3 more years of team control, they're certainly gonna want one top prospect, or at least one they evaluate as being a top prospect. Maybe not Gilbert, but there's no way the prospect or prospects we give up wouldn't really sting for that kind of return.
I agree, it is a tough call. It requires really having a strong knowledge of your own farm system, knowing how good the prospect you are trading is, and will be.... knowing the other players in your system that can possibly step in and knowing what the general plan is for spending funds in the future in free agency, and deciding what is the best calculated outcome. The Braves were great at this with starting pitchers 20-25 years ago. They dealt almost a dozen highly valued rotation prospects, and only a couple of them shouldn't have been traded. This is like when the Braves drew a line in the sand over Freddie Freeman, and then traded for Olson to play first - or the Murphy trade, they knew he was in Oakland, a shitty place to hit, with shitty hitters around him and now he has succeeded in a better environment. My observation is you make these types of deals for offensive players that can hit AND defend - and you do it for pitchers in the pen that are not overly old and are consistent. I may make the deal actually - but I also question the ceiling for Drew Gilbert. I am not saying for sure I would do it, but I would certainly look at it hard, because making the deal causes a cascading effect in the pen now and later - it saves money as well, it is insurance for Neris leaving and long term, Pressly leaving of breaking down........ I also have Chas to play center, so I am not as concerned about having a CFer, and I have a lot of depth with outfielders with a high ceiling.
I don’t know why Bednar is even being talked about Astros have a closer, who’s proven in the postseason and they certainly aren’t giving up their top two prospects too acquire another with holes in the rotation. They need arms too get too Pressly that low level prospects can easily get.
I am old enough to remember Daryl Ward... where he dropped .120 points in slugging for .030 points in on base after one year... Pena's K numbers have gone down but his ISO power, line drive rate, and fly ball rate have all gone down. Hard hit rate and exit velocity is the same. Still a positive WAR player.
If we had a bullpen full of closers, it woudln't be too many. Nothing against Pressley - but having Nerris, Abreu, Bednar, and Pressley . . . man. you can 1,2,3 punch to win and still have a guy for tomorrow. Given how Dusty manages a pen, the more that can close a game out . . . the better.
I'm thinking it will cost something like Bednar for Gilbert, Whitley, Corona. I'm hoping you can replace Melton instead of Gilbert in the deal. Then trade Pena, Gilbert, Lee, Arrighetti for Cease.
Agree. Cashing out some OF depth is the easiest way to improve the club. Even short Brantley and a good chunk of Yordan's season, its still a top OF group in the league and 7 of top 15 prospects are OF'ers (5 at CF). While trading Gilbert will hurt, it by no means is going to cripple the OF situation moving forward.
