Its also worth noting that the Red Sox are very LH hitting heavy in the OF so its a good match. 4 of their top 5 OF hit LH, though they did DFA Tapia today.
It is hard to say for sure, probably comes down to the eye of the beholder. Verdugo is the better player overall, and right now is playing a couple levels above McCormick - but Chas is a good centerfielder and has two full more years of control. If I were the Red Sox I would probably want Chas and try to squeeze out someone else like Dirden or maybe an up and down pitching prospect. If I am the Astros I have to really think about it -- Verdugo really fills a need for the Astros this year and next - but then he is a free agent and Tucker the year after Tucker is a free agent. I think at the end of the day I would give up McCormick and someone like Kennedy Corona or Colin Barber if the Red Sox will send back Verdugo and Kutter Crawford.
FWIW and I know their values are really off sometimes. Baseballtradevalues.com has Verdugo worth $15.7M and Chas @ $34.1M at very least I expected it to be close to even.
Part of it is I have a really skewed view on the trade market after looking at trades for guys like Luis Castillo, Daulton Varsho, etc. Really high prospect costs coupled with the crazy offseason where teams were just handing out mega contracts in free agency makes the acquisition cost for team controlled players very very high in my opinion.
I don't think someone arguing that Chas has as much or even more value that Verdugo is wrong - it is just circumstantial. I think that the Astros will be willing to give up more to get someone like Verdugo than the Red Sox will be motivated to move him. There is also a real possibility that McCormick has an season or two with an OPS over .800 and 4-5 WAR in a season if he gets 600 at bats with Boston. From the perspective of the Astros, they have Meyers...... they have Dirden and Leon in AAA, and in AA have Gilbert, who could start as early as next year, and Melton is playing very well too....... and there is a 10-25% chance that Kenni Gomez is in the big league by the time he is 20-21 years old ......... plus Barber or Corona....... Corona, especially has a chance to be a late bloomer and be an impact type player. Also, the next couple of years for the Astros means more than most teams value the next couple of seasons because the Astros can compete for titles now.
Yes. It is obvious, unless several players perform well below expected levels, there will be an outfield crunch in Houston. It's very likely that Chas is not one of the 5 best OF on the team 2 years from now and that some of those better are also cheaper. That's another reason that Verdugo would be a better fit for this team. As stated before he is having a career year well above preseason projections or anything he has done before. Maybe the Red Sox, who have very little chance to make the playoffs look to sell high on him? Maybe they can get a guy like Chas and a lottery ticket like Matijevic? They have had lots of issues finding a 1B too.
Verdugo has never hit lefties particularly well, so I would much prefer to just trade prospects and roll with the platoon which would be lethal and likely better than any bat we could acquire. Chaz also provides Meyers insurance and great general depth across the outfield. I don't mind trading Chaz if he's valued correctly, but I would want a good return. Just because he doesn't have a for sure everyday role doesn't mean he doesn't bring a lot.
I would offer up Chas and a Prospect for Verdugo. Just to play LF. Merrifield wouldn't be a bad add to be a super utility with Dubon. Maybe try an triple up with Swanson, Bassett and Merrifield all in one deal for a better prospect and a couple dump offs?
This. If it is unlikely that Chas will be one of the 5 best OF in 2 years, at least one of those prospects should be able to acquire Verdugo straight up. I don't get the desire to trade MLB talent in the middle of a championship window. Granted, I don't think the Astros have the prospects that they are willing to trade that the Red Sox would want. In other words, the Red Sox would want Gilbert, and probably don't think any of the other Astros propsects are worth Verdugo (i.e., the Red Sox are doubtful the other prospects will be better than Chas in 2 years).
When Toronto was scraping together loose change under the couch cushions to try to sign JV last off-season I suggested we offer then Chas for Springer and the vast majority of our fan base called me a paint chip eating more even though Springer was in a value neutral contract and Chas has like 50M surplus value. Our fanbase is completely and totally uninterested in seeing Chas as a player with value. I guess that’s fair though as Dusty makes him platoon with the sparest of spares in Julks who could have been had for free this winter in Rule 5 and everyone passed. Dusty sees Chas as having almost no value I guess.
Chas is a known quantity. Even the best prospects are just prospects. 3 guys in the 3-15 Astros prospects range might get it done but the Astros probably don't have a single guy who can get him straight up. Maybe Gilbert. Maybe
I agree But that doesn't mean Red Sox agree. In fact, Red Sox fans may riot if the Red Sox only get 1 prospect for Verdugo regardless of the prospect.
I think we are close enough to the deadline that Houston’s assets won’t change in value very much (aside from injuries). Broken down by tiers: Guys they aren’t trading: Martin Maldonado, Jose Abreu, Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, Alex Bregman, Mauricio Dubon, Kyle Tucker, Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr., Bryan Abreu, Ryan Pressly, Ryne Stanek, Phil Maton, Rafael Montero, Hector Neris, Seth Martinez, Tier 1 (guys who can be the centerpiece for a rental star or part of the centerpiece for a multi-year star): Drew Gilbert Tier 2 (guys who can be a secondary piece for a star or a centerpiece for a complementary player): Yainer Diaz Jake Meyers Chas McCormick Korey Lee JP France Spencer Arrighetti Joey Loperfido Colin Barber Ryan Clifford Jacob Melton Tier 3 (guys who won’t be meaningful parts of big trades, but that have some measure of trade value): Corey Julks, Grae Kessinger, Joe Perez, Brandon Bielak, Ronel Blanco, Shawn Dubin, Parker Mushinski, Enoli Paredes, Forrest Whitley, Blake Taylor, Angel Macuare, Jairo Solis, Misael Tamarez, Pedro Leon, Justin Dirden, Colton Gordon, Rhett Kouba, Julio Robaina, Will Wagner, Shay Whitcomb, Kenedy Corona, Zach Dezenzo, Quincy Hamilton, Kenni Gomez, Luis Baez, Camilo Diaz, Esmil Valencia, Eduardo Perez, Michael Knorr, Alex Santos, Miguel Ullola, Miguel Palma, Nolan DeVos, Trey Dombroski, Jose Fleury, Andrew Taylor Guys on the 40 man roster with little to no trade value: Cesar Salazar, David Hensley, Rylan Bannon, Matt Gage Houston also has about $20M in 2023 payroll they can add. They have assets but I will be very very surprised if they play at the top of the trade market.
I like this list. A few differences in my opinion. I think Stanek as a rental and no longer one of the leverage guys could be traded in a minor deal between contenders (similar to Will Smith/Odorizzi deal last year) but not likely and only if other bullpen pieces are brought in. Urquidy if shown healthy could be traded just like almost last year. Unlikely and only if pitching is brought in Enoli Paredes probably needs to be on 40 man untradeable list. I know teams like good arms but he's been bad for a while now. He was defeated by being in minors for so long. Needs change of scenery but no value. At first glance all else looks good.
Give me an example of a “complimentary” player you mean that you’d trade Diaz for. He seems damn near untouchable to me unless it’s for a star. With scarcity at catcher and how good he’s looked on defense, while also being almost undoubtedly at a minimum a league average bat that screams more valuable than complimentary player. Other than that- yeah- I agree completely. I’d be really really reticent to trade Gilbert as well. I can’t imagine anyone has much desire to give up much for France, but if they did I’d take it.
Agreed I would not trade Diaz at this point unless we got an ace or something as part for the trade package.
