this is my view as well... its been influenced by Chet this year for sure, cause i PROBABLY would have taken Chet #1 this year but it took all of 2-3 months for the same body type with NO history of injury concerns to have his first major injury requiring him to miss a year. Wemby was on the ground a lot last night. People were regularly getting into his landing zone on his 3s, too - not in any attempt to hurt him, just in useless attempts to guard his shot. Last year he played 33 of 76 possible games, and missed the playoffs for his squad with an injury. He's missed games with a psoas injury. He's missed 2 months with a shoulder contusion. He missed a month with a fractured finger. He's already had a stress fracture in his fibula. I'd love to land the #1 pick, to receive the greatest trade return package in the history of sports... or to just trade it to the team with the #2 pick plus an insane haul of additional assets.
So it's a lock, we're looking at the following lineup next year. P.G. - TyTy Washington S.G. - Jalen Green S.F. - Jabari Smith Jr. P.F. - Alperen Sengun ..C. - Victor Wembanyama 6th Man - Tari Eason
If you trade away wemby and he isn't injured, you forfiet arguably the best prospect of all time AND look like an idiot in the process. The expected value of wemby, even if he's 90% likely to suffer a career ending injury in his first 3 years, is higher than the 2nd pick for 29/30 teams. That's why as of today, he'll go number 1 and won't be traded unless a poorly run team like Sacramento lands the first pick.
the goal of an nba team is to win a champions. FULL STOP. Wemby can have the greatest 5 year stretch in nba history for all I know. but the likelihood of winning a championship with him is way lower than with many other generational talents. Because of durability. it just is what it is. Heck Zion is an outlier body type but in much less of an injury risk type scenario and still can’t stay on the floor. CP3 has played for decades lol and can’t stay healthy come playoffs. Wembys best chance would be to join a team ready to make that push fairly quick - interestingly the Rockets would fit that - imo. again he’s already had at least 4 injuries a few of which have kept him out for months+. sure… ABSOLUTELY he might be that outlier that despite the dusting injury concerns, the outlier body type and their history of unified, nonetheless consistently plays 70+ games (lol no chance) every year and throughout the playoffs. guess what… good news because of what you said, the return you’d get in a trade would be INSANE. And given the goal is to win a ring and not have one great player, that’d be just as good. just my opinion. this was discussed on playback yesterday. Come next off-season if the Rockets can draft Wemby … OR say trade the pick to Toronto for Barnes, OG, 3 future first and 3 swaps… how do you turn down that?
People cite Chet as the downside injury risk for Wemby but why not Embiid? He struggled through a billion injuries but has managed to put together 2 MVP level seasons in a row. Embiid was absolutely worth it and was the gem of the process - full stop. And if you drafted Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker in front of him, you done messed up. Seems like its worth the tradeoff to have a few years of unicorn over a perennial all star like Scoot Henderson, who, as good as he looked, is more replaceable simply because there's just a lot more 6'3 people on earth.
Scoot isnt bad. It'd be like trading Zion to Memphis for Ja and 3 unprotected picks. Nobody will say you are an idiot for getting Scoot even if Wemby turns out to be the next Lebron. I rather take the safe 2M then the 70% chance to get 3M.
Embiid hasnt really done **** right? He is a 9 yr vet and the most Sixers have gone is 2nd round. Part of it Sixers have been bad but also part of it are the injuries of Embiid if he was as indestructible as Giannis maybe he would have a ring by now sad sack supporting cast or no. Ironically Wiggins is the one who got better return from the team who drsfted him cuz Cavs got a ring by trading him for Love. Of course if your alternative is Jabari Parker then you def take Wemby no matter what. But if Scoot is there in the draft to me its def a no brainer to trade down and get Scoot cuz at 18 yrs old he already plays like an athletic and taller Cp3. His bust level is almost 0 and his star potential is almost a 100. How insane would it be if NO traded Zion for Ja and 3 picks from Memphis?
So i got a glimpse of last nights game. He's a good prospect but i don't see the generational talent. He might look generational to the competition he plays against in France but going against NBA prospects will even him out. To me he has similar qualities of Jabari Smith and Chet. This draft is so top heavy this year we got to see what Smith from Arkansas or Whitehead from Duke will do.
For me its a couple items. 1 - Embiid isn't "clearly" worth it yet. Missed 2 seasons to start. Averages 55 games played in the 6 he's played. Hasn't been out of the second round. 2 - Still, he is clearly worth it relative to his draft class. Which was meh. If this draft class is both "all that" and has a guy at #2 that is close to this generational dude without the injury concern... its more akin to a Greg Oden/KD draft than an Embiid one, if we're pulling random anectodal examples. 3 - Potential trade package return. 4 - Body type. Embiid isn't an outlier body type, as far as NBA goes. Yao, Bradley, Chet, Sampson, Zion... those are outlier body types imo. which might mean nothing... but history says otherwise. I personally think its a mute point for the Rockets anyway as i see their pick being in the 5-10 range.
If Embiid retired today with 4 all NBA selections and elite defense from the center spot - that's above what you get with the first pick most years, let alone the third. That's absolutely worth it over an all star guard because it is so hard to find.
Ralph was coming out of college -- 7' 4" and moves like a SF back in the 80s -- he was the ultimate unicorn.
