There is 1000 WAR total each year. 33.33 per team. The CBT is $233M So if those are the baselines then 1 WAR is worth $7M exactly
There is 1000 WAR total each year. 33.33 per team. The CBT is $233M So if those are the baselines then 1 WAR is worth $7M exactly As I said, I know $7M per expecred WAR won't buy the top FA but theoretically any more than that is over paying.
If you give him 5 or 6 it isn’t really material as that takes him through probably every last bit of productivity, so really we are just talking about total money on the deal. 160 would be fine. I’d really like for him to do 7 years if that is the number though just to make the AAV work out better. Want to keep that number under 25 and put some dead money on the back of that contract. Maybe some large bonuses in year 6 or 7 as a give back if he’s actually still productive enough to be a regular. His baserunning isn’t great and defense is sub average right now I think so he better continue to hit.
Nope. You missed the most obvious part my dude. It’s not 1 WAR is worth 10M. It’s 1 war is worth 10M on the open market. You aren’t pricing in the War taken down by club controlled guys.
I agree That the idea of playing Dubin over Altuve is asinine. I mentioned it because it is being discussed not because it is a good idea. The reason it is being discussed is the defensive value Dubon adds. Altuve has little chance to add any defensive value for the rest of his career. His bat will still play but if he has to DH to stay I just do not believe he will be interested. I do not believe Bregman's troubles are age related but they are certainly real and I see no reason to believe they will go away. He was unproductive for nearly 1/4 of last season it looks like he will be for about a third of this one. By 2005 it could be close to a half and only an insane (your word) GM will offer him a long or expensive contract at that point.
Go look at Bergman’s Babip and his expected wOba and stuff like that. It’s literally all bad luck. Bregman walks more than he strikes out and he hits lots of pull side fly balls. It’s almost impossible over any period of time for a guy with that profile not to be a productive hitter.
I get what you are saying but 1 WAR is 1 WAR. Its the same amount of production regardless of how much you are paying. Why pay a 7 year player $10M for 1 WAR if you can get that same 1 WAR for the MLB minimum. The highest paid players in MLB are $40-43.33 per year. I'm sure their teams would be happy with 4.3 WAR. Aaron Judge has at least 5.6 WAR every full season he has played in MLB. If your $10M was accurate he would have had at least $56M per year. He got $40M. I just don't get your $10M per WAR argument. I have never heard it that high.
I think his swing and approach leads to all that bad luck. He never really hammers a ball. His homers are always bleeding squeaker. I wonder if he wouldn't benefit from just a slight uppercut to his swing and an unchoking of the bat.
He's got more popups than a Russian p*rn site He also watches more pitches down middle than any All-Star-level player I've regularly watched in a while.
It’s a weird part of his super power to only swing at pitches he really want. Middle middle isn’t even good enough for him- he legitimately wants only middle in if he can get it.
The counter argument, though I mostly agree with you, is that the fixed number of starters makes them more valuable than the bench players or relievers who pitch fewer innings. But I am always in a fight with those who ignore the payroll soft cap and immediately jump to team value to value a player. It's like a SIN for an owner to make a profit on his investment with absolutely no idea how easy for team values to change with general economics totally outside of the players. ie - Valuation is based on the interest rate of an expected net income stream. But as interest rates rise, the team values of the teams will fall on the same income stream. And team values during a period of falling interest rates cause team values to rise. I believe we are past the lows and entering a period of rising interest rates and consequently, falling team values.
Total Payroll is $4.8B so the theorectical $/WAR assuming complete free market is $4.8M/WAR. It is not a complete free market. Players in free agency were getting about $9.5M/estimated WAR assuming free agents were evaluated with normal aging curves. Factoring major injuries, it will likely end up to about $8.5M/WAR.
I would like to see: C) Diaz as close to 1/2 as possible but lets say 4 starts every 2 weeks. Maldy starts the rest and Salazar allows Diaz to DH. 1b) Diaz 2 starts every 2 weeks and Abreu the rest. 2b) Dubon 4 starts every 2 weeks and Altuve the rest. 3b) Dubon 1 start every 2 weeks, Bregman the rest. SS) Dubon 1 start every 2 weeks. Pena the rest. LF) Alvarez 4 starts and Dubon 1 start every 2 weeks. Chas gets the rest. CF) Chas gets 3 starts every 2 weeks and Meyers gets the rest. RF) Dubon 1 start every 2 weeks. Tucker the rest. DH) Altuve 3 starts and Diaz 2 starts every 2 weeks, Alvarez the rest. That gives Dubon 8, Diaz 8, Chas 10-12, Meyers 9-11and Maldy 8-10 starts every 2 weeks. Everyone else gets 1 day off every 2 weeks.
Similar to you but done by a 6 game per week set up. C: Maldy (4), Diaz (2) 1B: Abreu (5), Diaz (1) 2B: Altuve (4), Dubon (2) 3B: Bregman (5), Dubon (1) SS: Pena (5), Dubon (1) LF: Alvarez (3), McC (3) CF: Meyers (5), McC (1) RF: Tucker (5), McC (1) DH: Alvarez (2), Altuve (1), Diaz (2), Dubon (1) Maldy-4 games Diaz 5 (C-2, 1B- 1, DH-2) Abreu-5 Altuve-5 (2b-4, DH-1) Bregman-5 Pena-5 Alvarez-5 (LF-3, DH-2) McC- 5 (LF-3, CF-1, RF-1) Meyers-5 Tucker-5 Dubon-5 (2b-2, SS, 3B, DH) Julks and Salazar defensive replacemts and games when there are 7 in a week or as needed.
Well, moving from mound back to flat ground and “whether” he can get built up to start sounds … not good. But at least he’ll be back around the All Star Game, “or after”. Why is it so hard to give clear information? There is no competitive advantage to hiding injury information on someone who is out for a long time. Maybe avoiding desperation in the trade market, but everyone knows the Astros want a pitcher. almost as frustrating as a Baker lineup. Thank god this team has earned some benefit the doubt.
