Better off doing these sort of deep dive analyses’ for guys who don’t have a track record…. If only to try and figure out if any of them will actually have a chance of becoming legit everyday MLB players. Of course small sample sizes are just that.
I’m staring an Astros podcast with a buddy (first one going to be Wednesday) and that’s one of the things we are going to talk about/ what’s real at this point in the season and what’s noise- what you can get excited about and what should be a subject of panic. He’s going to be one of the guys I look closest at. Sneak preview- I don’t think you are going to like what we have to say on this one. Gulp.
Abreu's start is very alarming, it's past the point of being an extremely small sample and he still looks completely hapless. Given the financial investment he's gonna get an extremely long leash, but these first 3 weeks he's been god awful and at his age there's real reason to be concerned. On the much less important side of the roster, Blanco just doesn't seem like a guy who can consistently get MLB hitters out. I don't think it will be long before we see somebody else up here to replace him, probably Taylor. Martinez isn't looking too much better, but at least he has some established track record of quality mop up duty. Dubon's xBA is .343 right now. I don't expect him to maintain this, but he hasn't just been BABIP lucky, he's been extremely good.
Only 2 guys on the team with a negative WAR. Both of our 1st Baseman. And silly me thought we upgraded 1st base in the off-season. https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/stats/_/name/hou/table/batting/sort/WARBR/dir/desc
I would consider hitting the ball frequently hard enough and at just the right angle to get past IFs, but soft enough to fall in front of OFs to be BABIP lucky. Sure, those types of hits have high xwOBA and xBA, but it is hard to maintain those type of hits at the frequency Dubon is hitting. xBA can be lucky at small samples though usually stabilizes well before BA.
Not striking out is sustainable. And we would expect a rise in batting averages on ground balls put in play from the decreased shifts. Eventually he will be pitched to differently, more balls up in the zone, and we shall see if the weight gain added anything in that area.
It's a very old school way of hitting like Tony Gwynn or Ichiro. Not to say he is in anyway as good as Tony Gwynn, but that was their batting profile. Never whiffed, never struck out, didn't walk all that much, and never hit for much power. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/mauricio-dubon-643289?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
If Dubon keeps the K%, BB%, and ISO, he would need a BA of about 0.325 just to be an average hitter (i.e., wRC+ about 100 or OPS of 0.735). On the shift, it isn't really helping groundballs that much as teams are still shifting an IF as far as allowed to 2nd base. The big help has been line drives which has helped Dubon a lot considering he's a good line drive hitter. Is he a top 10 line drive hitter since they've kept batted ball data? I doubt he can maintain that. The shift restrictions helps him, but it should help the guys that hit hard line drives more.
Beyond the win, today was good on two dimensions. Abreau’s three exit velo’s were 109, 100 and 93. And Javier averaged 94 for his fastball (vs 92.6 for the year). As simplistic as it is, those two getting back to hitting hard and pitching fast will be super important for the season.
I wouldn't be opposed to Hensley for Yuli trade just like how we traded Kemp for Maldy after he left.
Looks like Chandler Rome has left the Chronicle for The Athletic. https://theathletic.com/4418353/2023/04/18/mlb-worrisome-early-season-trends/ Houston Astros Worrisome early-season trend: José Abreu’s .550 OPS Abreu’s first month in Houston has been one of the worst of his major league career. He has weakened a lineup already missing Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley while failing to show the sort of run production that enticed owner Jim Crane to give him the second-largest free agent contract of his ownership tenure. The Astros accepted that age had probably sapped some of Abreu’s power, but expected the 36-year-old to continue hitting for average and use Minute Maid Park’s short porch in left field to his advantage. Instead, Abreu has two extra-base hits in his first 71 plate appearances, a career-worst 25.4 percent strikeout rate and — perhaps most concerning — a 36.7 percent hard-hit rate that invites wonder whether this is more than just an awful month. — Chandler Rome Spoiler
This must be one of those monkey paw situations for all the people who have been whining about the Athletic not having an Astros beat writer.
