2023 Post-Season Projections and Predictions

I feel the Astros would be slightly favored against winner of the Twins/Jays, and then slight underdogs against either the Rays or the Orioles (or slight favorites again against the Rangers). And then slight underdogs against Braves or the Dodgers if they make the WS. I would not be surprised if they win it all again, and also not surprised if they lose in the ALDS.

 

I should have mentioned that as well. Though, the Astros are the 2nd best team in FanGraphs Depth Charts.

 

Not sure how "right" that would be. He was their best pitcher by far in all of 2017 in every round. 2018 - only 3 games (2 good, 1 ok). 2019 - got worse in the WS (as did Cole). 2020 - injured. 2021 - injured. 2022 - bad first game, great 2nd round, fell apart after 5 first game of WS, held on through 5 second game of WS.

Its a generally positive result... with the negative stigma slightly magnified by 2 losses in the 2019 WS, but people forget he was the best starter in the 2017 WS (despite not qualifying for the win). 2019 also probably could have better managed in terms of work-load especially since the division was well wrapped up (and they did some of that last year) - both Cole and JV basically made every start.

He also is the only Astros pitcher to be absolutely dominant in a series during the golden era (2017 ALCS), and was rightfully the MVP. I don't think you can be labeled as a post-season failure of any kind if you have the ability to win a series MVP (as a pitcher no less).

 

The stros will be dogs to no one unless they possibly face Atl

 

Depends on how they (Min/Tor) win. If either of those 2 dominate in 2 games, a lot of media will "jump on the bandwagon" and not look past the Astros overall record and September record. The number of guys who keep saying Abreu needs to step up after a bad season who didn't spend 5 minutes to see how good he was in September is maddening.

 

min/tor could sweep the other and it still wouldn't matter. The stros will be significant favorites facing either team. Both of those teams have longshot odds at a deep run

 

We saw momentum work both ways last year in each league:

Seattle had a huge comeback to beat Toronto and looked hot AF during game 1...until we know what happened.

Philly had a huge comeback to beat STL and rode that all the way to the WS... until we know what happened.

The better team usually wins the 7 game series (even in 2019 -- Nats win because Scherzer/Strasburg were better than the Astros pitchers in all 4 of their wins). 5 game series can have some sway by one game here/there. 3 game series are total crapshoots.

 

I don't really care who we play. I'm rooting for a 3 game series with multiple extra inning games for Blue Jays/Twins.

 

I mean it is longshot odds now because they both have an extra series to win.

Sure the Astros will probably still be favored by Vegas, but I suspect the media narrative may not reflect that.

 

the media narrative doesn't change the signifcant difference in odds between the stros and either of those teams. The only thing the media can do is just try to push the narrative of a huge underdog in reality which they will be, as a team that will take out the ws champs. I mean media wants clicks and controversy. So they should. It still won't change the fact that the stros will be favored by a good margin

 

Have a feeling the Braves get upset. Thinking Dodgers make it out of the NL, sleeper Miami. Winner of the AL is the winner of the Jays/Astros series.

 

A post-season list that does not have Yordan, Correa, or Springer is stupidity.

 

Based on the odds makers you posted, they are ranking the Astros as underdogs to both Atlanta and LA.

 

No. Just Atlanta which is understandable

 

If those are the current odds...I think New York is a pretty bad bet, even as a long shot.