If you know someone is your guy, you go get him. I don’t know why we’re complaining about a second round pick here. Historically there is a dramatic drop off for an all-pro after the first round, yeah yeah we had a pick next year we gave up. However, if the FO and coaching staff believe, like well and truly believe these two players will be the cornerstones of the franchise the next decade and transform our team, I have absolutely no issues swinging for the fences. We referenced two big impact positions. Round Freq. Percent Cuml. 1 83 48.5 48.5 2 24 14.0 62.6 3 15 8.8 71.4 4 12 7.0 78.4 5 9 5.3 83.6 6 6 3.5 87.1 7 2 1.2 88.3 Undrafted 18 10.5 98.8 Supplemental 2 1.2 100.0 Total 171 100 above was from a Forbes article, the below is a break down by success by position, round and power 5 school. Where do the best players come from? TOTAL MEDIAN PICK ROUND 1 % ROUNDS 2-3 % ROUNDS 4+ % POWER 5 % AVG. RK. AGE WR 33 47 42.4% 36.4% 21.2% 75.8% 22.1 TE 21 42 42.9% 33.3% 23.9% 85.8% 22.5 T 27 15 63.0% 18.5% 18.5% 74.1% 22.4 S 32 33.5 46.9% 25.0% 28.1% 87.5% 22.4 RB 31 45 35.5% 51.7% 12.9% 83.9% 21.9 QB 25 10.5 72.0% 16.0% 12.0% 75.0% 22.6 LB 29 36 48.3% 41.4% 10.3% 82.8% 22.3 G 26 60.5 34.6% 46.2% 19.2% 61.5% 22.8 Edge 45 20 60.0% 15.6% 24.4% 73.3% 22.2 DT 26 28.5 57.7% 19.2% 23.1% 84.6% 22.4 CB 38 31 50.0% 23.7% 26.3% 76.3% 22.2 C 15 49 46.7% 20.0% 33.3% 86.7% 22.6 All 348 32 50.3% 28.7% 21.0% 78.7% 22.3 Quarterback No surprise here. If you want a stud quarterback, draft him early. Eighteen of the 25 elite quarterbacks in this 10-year sample were drafted in the first round, 16 of them within the first 12 picks. Relative to the other positions, quarterback has the earliest median pick for its studs (10.5) and the highest first-round percentage (72 percent). That’s what you would expect for the most valuable position. Running back The dispersion of when elite running backs are drafted is interesting. Running back has the second-lowest percentage of Pro Bowl/All-Pro first-round selections at 35.5 percent (ahead of guard) but the highest percentage of Pro Bowlers drafted in Rounds 2 and 3 (51.7 percent). So while there are plenty of reasons not to draft a running back in the first round, it’s something of a misconception that great running backs can be found whenever. Only four of 31 running backs in the sample were not drafted in the first three rounds (fourth-round pick Devonta Freeman, fifth-round pick Aaron Jones and undrafted players Phillip Lindsay and Arian Foster). Whether it’s worth chasing a Pro Bowl-caliber running back is a different matter. Wide receiver There’s a fascinating dynamic at play here. For most of the league’s premium positions, the best players are drafted as early as possible. That makes sense, and it holds true for quarterback, edge rushers and offensive tackles. Those three positions make up three of the top four in cap spending and they rank Nos. 1-3 in percentage of Pro Bowlers/All-Pros who are drafted in the first round and in the median pick of those elite players. By and large, the league is efficient in evaluating and valuing those positions. That is not the case at wide receiver, where the median pick for a Pro Bowler/All-Pro is all the way down at No. 47, ahead of only center and guard, despite teams spending a high volume of first-round picks on the position. Tight end Compared to the other positions, tight end is without extremes. A higher percentage of first-round tight ends go on to make the Pro Bowl than almost any other position, but there have also been plenty of stars found in the third round and beyond, from Travis Kelce and Jimmy Graham in the third to George Kittle in the fifth and the DWs (Darren Waller and Delanie Walker) in the sixth. One oddity? Tight end is the only position without an undrafted Pro Bowler/All-Pro over the last 10 years. It also ranks third on the pecking order of Power 5 preference. Tackle As you might expect, tackle ranks second only to quarterback in the median pick of its star players and its first-round percentage. Of the 27 Pro Bowl/All-Pro tackles, 14 were drafted within the first 15 overall picks. Dismiss the value of a backup swing tackle at your own peril, but if you want to swing for upside, it’s basically first round or bust. There have actually been more undrafted Pro Bowl tackles (three) than Pro Bowl tackles drafted in Rounds 4 through 7 (two, at least until Jordan Mailata makes it). Guard If you want to get weird, this is the position for you. Compared to the other positions, Pro Bowl/All-Pro guards have the lowest median pick, the smallest percentage of Power 5 players by a significant margin and the oldest average rookie age. Six of the 26 guards in the sample entered the league at 24 years or older. Only one other position, safety, has as many as four such players. The key here has often been the third round, which has produced seven future Pro Bowlers and All-Pros, compared to only five second-rounders, three fourth-rounders, one fifth-rounder and one undrafted player. Center Here we have the smallest sample of Pro Bowl/All-Pro players, so we’ll keep the sweeping conclusions to a minimum except to note the empty middle here. Seven of the 15 players here were drafted in the first round, while five were drafted in the fifth round, beyond or not at all. That leaves just three who were drafted in the middle rounds, all of them in Round 2. It’s also quirky that the Power 5 percentage here is so different from guard: 13 of the 15 centers came from Power 5 schools.
I never thought I'd see the day when Texans fans spent so much time complaining about us taking the 2nd and 3rd round picks in the draft, and two of the top prospects at QB and on defense. The pussyfooting around for doing something big has ended! Go Texans! Time to put the last 3 years of hopelessness behind us and charge ahead.
The Texans have had zero relative success since day 1. They finally do something different and the fans are pissed. We might have the dumbest fan base in sports.. LOL.
Well obviously YOU DO! I find it very interesting that just ONE PERSON (I'm certainly in the minority on this) has a different opinion on....not even an individual player but just the price paid to acquire said player, and YOU get so emotional about someone having a opinion different than yours that you have to edit out cursing SIX different times and also try to tell me to keep my opinion(s) to myself! lol This is a message board! People have differing opinions! Sorry if that's spoils your day! Dude. This has ALREADY been posted. I even quoted the article earlier and then showed how the trade was FAR from anything close to a fair trade. Go back and reread the last 2 pages or so.
You are worrying about nothing! If the Texans win 7 or more games next season, there is NO DOUBT the trade was worth it because their pick won't be top 10. Who the **** cares? They have plenty of cap space to get a PROVEN player vs. some maybe 1st round pick. They won't be in the position to pick Williams or even Harrison Jr. anyway. Get over it. It is like those 2-1st round picks given up for Tunisl. Turns out, Tunsil is a top 3 LT in the league. Get over it.
Did he? Need to research the trades he made with both franchises, but the ONE win he did win was a ****ing doozy, the best in modern NFL history, so there's that. And I'm with you on loving what the Texans just did. Hope it works out. This is probably the worst tagline you could have picked, given...future things
It has been refined and modified since he did it, but he was the original person. https://www.the33rdteam.com/categor...alue-chart-set-standard-but-clearly-outdated/
I've already addressed where the draft pick would need to land to even be equivalent to the Trey Lance trade, It's NOWHERE NEAR set in stone that we'll have a pick anywhere near that low in next years draft. It's a good bet that DeMeco will improve the defense but we'll be starting a rookie QB with our only quality receiver traded away and counting on a 5'8'' rookie that seems to play best at the same position (slot receiver) as our last years high receiver pick. A rookie QB and 2 first year (playing) wide outs is FAR FROM a guarantee of success! Plus the interior of our line was BAD last year and although we hope that our moves help the situation that's also far from set in stone. And that's not even taking possible injuries into the equation either! And as if cap space makes an overpay immaterial that's a joke! 1st you have to have the player WANTING to come here or you have to OVERPAY him to get him! Plus there's only so many players you can give high $$$ to in a salary cap world! Then you have to be able to get good, cheap talent in other ways, of which the best BY FAR is..........draft picks! That thing(s) about which you say "who gives a %^&*!". I understand WHY Nick and DeMeco did what they did and hope WA makes all-pro for the next 15 years and that we have a great record and only give up a pick in the 20's. What's DEFINITELY DEBATABLE is if that's likely to happen or not. Tunsil doesn't help you because: 1) I agreed with getting him. We HAD to do something at the time. 2) It was brought on by a series of bad decisions BEFORE it, or in other words not giving a $%^& about the future for what you get in the present! And finally you once again instruct me to "get over it"! lol You don't get to choose my opinion on things or influence if I post my opinion on this message board, not matter how much it may anger you. At least I only post it ONCE, and then just defend it as need be, instead of copy and paste it on multiple threads!
Probably. But even a 1-2 win improvement likely takes the pick out of the 2024 QB sweepstakes. A 4 win improvement likely takes you out of the Top 10.
You not giving a **** makes me want to ******* give a ****. As a matter of fact, you ****** ******* have not been giving a **** for a while and it ******* ****** me off. As far as I'm concerned yall can **** * **** and *** ****, **** *** *******!!!
Texans fans have Tunsil PSTD (rightly so), but unlike that trade, the 2023-4 Texans have not gutted their own drafts.
Honestly, people make fun of the desperation of that trade, but we got in return for multiple picks, arguably the best Left Tackle in the NFL. Had we kept that 2020 1st rounder AND the 2021 1st rounder, there's not a single combination of players we would've rather had than our proven All-Pro caliber LT. (I'm not talking about in Hindsight.... I'm saying based on what was available, choosing between 2 "highly regarded prospects" at #26 and #3 vs a high end proven tackle, we made the right choice...)
The two 1s ended up being used for Trey Lance and Jordan Love, Miami traded both picks and ended up drafting no players of note.
