There are two very viable reactions to a trade of this magnitude. One is emotional, which is that it's fun and exciting and "Holyshit! I actually care about the Texans again!" The other is practical, which is looking at - well, everything - and drawing a fairly reasonable conclusion that Will Anderson cost *a lot* and very possibly too much for a team as bad as the Texans. Nobody in the media (outside of Houston) is going to have an emotional response. Few fans are going to have a practical response (esp Texan fans, who've been starving for reasons to be excited again.) So... they crash into each other. No Texan fan - at least right now - wants any one to rain on their parade. To me, it's very similar to the Astros signing Abreu. It's fun and exciting to land big-name free agents - especially ones that seemingly address a very obvious need. But quite a few of us were immediately concerned about the deal: his numbers were trending down; he's old; it signaled a philosophical shift in the front office...
Like many I was shocked by the cost, but with some time to reflect here's where I'm at... #1 - You can't truly evaluate a trade until several years after it happens. Let's see what the Cards do with the picks we sent and how our two players develop. #2 - As many on the Texans media have described, this was essentially a "package trade" that allowed us to get our #1 player (Anderson) and QB of the future (Stroud). If these are your guys, then you do what's necessary to get them and NC and DR did that, bravo. Now it's about developing them and them developing themselves. #3 - The future is unknown. Those predicting we finish with #2 pick next year are doing lazy analysis. Every year teams surprise. While Vegas has us at 5.5 wins, I could see us getting to 7-9 wins if things go right. We have a lot of firsts (HC, OC, and rookie QB), but we also have an energy that can be contagious and overcome a lot of that with exceptional schemes and execution. I'm betting our defense is much better than last year and that our offense will consistently improve during the season (if we stay healthy). #4 - The National Media doesn't really factor in the excitement that is building in H-Town. From firing Easterbunny, to hiring DeMeco, signing some solid FA vets (Schultz, Perryman, Ward, etc.) and now THE 2023 DRAFT CLASS. Our stock crashed in that KC Playoff game and we've treaded water for some time, but now we're gaining some positive momentum and those bold draft moves may proof to be the investments we need to climb to the next tier of teams. I know many will want to counter the above with negatives and that's your right, but for now, this is my perspective until they start playing and the real tests begin.
The in bold part is a FLAT OUT LIE and easily disprovable! The Texans as a part of their trade received a high 4th this year for a 3rd next year so I'm cancelling those two out. That leaves us trading the #12, #33, and next years 1st for #3. San Fran's trade package was the #12, 2 future firsts and a 3rd for #3. Since BOTH teams traded the #12 for the #3 pick we can remove them from the equation. That leaves San Fran giving up 2 future 1st's (which both ended up being #29 overall) and a 3rd as opposed to us giving up #33 and next years 1st. Without figuring in any depreciation here are the draft chart values of the two packages. San Fran #29 - 640 #29 - 640 #102 - 92 total = 1372 vs Hou #33 - 580 #?? - ???? The #21 in the 1st is worth 800 points so that would be the CLOSEST to equal value. (1380 vs 1372) So that means any pick we give up next year higher/better than #21 will not only NOT be a "fair value" but actually be a WORSE OVERPAY than even the Trey Lance deal!!! Which is widely panned as being a massive overpay. And if anyone wants to argue about depreciation I have soo much of a cushion I can afford to be generous. Let's move it up 6 slots in the 1st next year and say that anything #15 or higher is a WORSE overpay than the T. Lance deal! I think most of the even optimistic predictions around here don't have us finishing that low in the draft order. Who wants to bet that the "execs" that supposedly say it wasn't a terrible deal or even that it was a fair one are either: a) Monti Ossenfort himself b) from a team in our division c) someone who has "Trader Nick" on speed dial or desperately wants to and do business with him in the near future! lol
You may see it a certain way but it all really comes down to how the Texans draft board looks. Clearly...... They felt VERY strongly about Will Anderson as a top defensive prospect in this year as well as next year's draft. Had to take that trade. Also... Clear that they wanted to go for the Center position with their second round pick in which they got back in to the second round! Its been widely reported that Scruggs in NFL circles was widely considered a 2nd round pick. They got their guy. The expense of the pick is overrated considering they would not have taken Williams, Maye etc next year and they likely would have targeted the top defensive guy..... Yes you miss out on Harrison Jr or Brock Bowers, but for all we know Cleveland ***** the bed as that organization routinely does and the Texans get one of the Ohio St guys in the top 10. It all comes down to personal draft boards.
Well obviously no draft happens in a vacuum and each one is different! And it's also obvious that DeMeco felt strongly about Anderson and wanted him to help instill his "culture" in the locker room right off the bat. But to try to rationalize the enormous cost given up as being acceptable because "we wouldn't have drafted Williams or Maye next year" is absurd! If we end up with a pick high enough to get one of those 2 "generational" QB talents, don't you think we could have traded the pick for a compensation package that would dwarf even what we gave up for the 3# this year? (Well Nick would probably only have gotten like 2 future 6th's and a 7th but I mean an average, competent gm) And then to try and state that the possibility of CLE cratering this year mitigates us losing a pick like that is equally absurd! Having two top 5 picks next year would be TWICE AS BENEFICIAL as having one! And I didn't even address another point the article made which was that Caserio may feel his job is in jeopardy so he would be even more inclined to trade whatever he had to in order to make a "splash" this year! That's usually what the job of a GM is, to protect against the head coach wanting to trade away disproportional future assets for a "quick fix" but that's definitely not Nick! And you added the "Scruggs" pick in as if that actually helps the opinion of Caserio. I've seen reports that state NE and San Fran had contact/interest in him but nothing stating how HIGH they would have taken him if at all. Please post the link to a report that says he was rated as a 2nd round value by people other than us. I'd really like to read that. Thanks in advance.
While I won't label it as an "egregiously" bad trade, the fact is they still took a huge gamble by trading away next year's #1 instead of Cleveland's. I fully expect that our 2024 first round pick will be a top ten pick while Cleveland's will wind up somewhere in the teens. I saw a video yesterday that looked back at how a number of draft day trades actually worked out and, for the most part, the results weren't very good. This is why you see such a negative response to what the Texans did. Here's a link if you are interested. It has to be watched on YouTube because it contains video from the NFL:
If Will Anderson ends up being a stud and the Texans pick ends up being top 10..... then I consider it a good trade. If Will Anderson busts and the Texans pick is top 10, then I will consider it a bad trade. If Will Anderson is average and the Texans pick finishes top 10 then I will punt my thoughts until Will's trajectory is determined. Without the pick no Will Anderson. Thats really the only way to see it. Deshaun Watson did look like absolute dog crap last year. I would not be surprised if Cleveland's pick ends up even worse next year. We will see. So many "What If's"
I really don't expect Anderson to be a bust especially with how DeMeco plans to use him. I'm looking at him being another Micah Parsons or Nick Bosa. Watson looked like dog poop last year due to the extensive layoff he'd gone through. I don't expect that to be the case this year plus he'll be highly motivated to play well and show what he can do. I can really see Cle taking a major jump forward. Even with a weak schedule I can't see them winning more than 6-8 games. There's just too many unknowns and new parts to integrate this year but IF DeMeco actually gets the authority and resources he needs, then the next few years will be fun to watch. I say this because I have zero trust in Cal, Hannah and Easterby's boy Nick to do what's right. Call me jaded but the past three years have made me that way.
It was definitely a gamble, but if you're new head coach thinks there's a generational prospect on the board at #3, then go for it. Ultimately, even if our pick is top 5, we gave up a top-5 pick and a #2 for a guy we think will have a much larger impact on our team than the guy we get in 2024. Not to mention, we get a guy today instead of next year. GM's can't afford to mortgage based on what might happen next season... especially guys like Caserio who are kinda already on the hot seat...
The price that the Texans paid won't even be an issue once the winning starts. Really shouldn't be one now.
The Texans have NEVER WON ANYTHING! Where’s the huge gamble? All of the armchair draft chart experts need to chill on this one.I respect the Texans conviction to make a ballsy move like this to win. You can’t hit a home runs without swinging the bay & they took a big swing this year. Did it cost? Yeah, but you have got to take a risk. To me that’s better then telling the fan base let’s lose another 15 games next year and hope the QBs next year are superstars. Because when next year’s draft roll around those kids may pick agents folk’s don’t like, fail an IQ test, run or throw poorly, measure poorly or have small hands. And the locals & “experts “ will be hand wringing again. The Texans have a new coach and took a shot at building a new culture. I respect them for it.
THIS! The Texans went into this offseason saying we may lose games, but we don't expect to. The tanking/hoping to lose is over. Management expects this off-season to be the beginning of the upswing of this rebuild. Let's get it, and stop living in the past. Per the charts, the only trade "worse" was the Falcons trading for Julio.... ask them if they'd do it again.... OF COURSE they would! If you have a guy that you think can change your franchise, you pull the trigger... 1 in the hand is ALWAYS worth more than 2 in the bush...
Texans got absolutely fleeced for Wil Anderson historically there is not much difference between pick 3 and 12 imagine what we could have done with 12, 33 and a first next year that could potentially be traded for a big haul if a team wants to trade up for a QB
Fleeced how? What’s the risk? That they may lose big? Hell man where have you been? They took a risk this year! Will and CJ may flop or be cornerstones to something big. They did something aggressive. Let it play out.
Who gives a ****? Texans gave up a 1, 2, and 3 to get a pick swap from 12-3. That's it. Who gives a **** about points? I don't give a ****. Overpay? Who the **** cares? It is not your money or picks. What do you want, a do-over? Texans got their player. All that matters. I extra 3rd round round pick is not going to mean much. They have well over a $100 million in cap next season. People like you are worrying about winning in trade value than winning on the field. Stop whining about ****ing trade value chart created by Jimmy Johnson, who won ONE trade as the Cowboys' coach 35 years ago. It may be a way to evaluate trades as a guide, but it is not the only to value a trade. I would rather have an Elite player than a bunch of good to decent players. I would take the risk on Anderson than the pick at 12 and 33. I don't give a **** about that 1 next year.
