Perhaps *during* the draft, you move up one spot to lock down your choice. But there is no benefit to moving 4 to 3, pre-draft: you're still behind a team likely to take a QB (so you can't be guaranteed to get the guy you really want), and anyone can jump you to 1, which means no QB for you. If the Colts move, it'll be to #1. Again, it's why Sunday's win was such a costly mistake - you gave up complete control of this draft with a divisional opponent lurking just behind you. Absolute worst-case scenario.
Will Levis game log is actually ridiculously uninspiring. Dude had MAYBE two decent performances outside of the games against Northern Illinois, Youngstown State, and Miami Ohio (and here the only truly impressive stat line is against NIU). The rest are mediocre to awful. 11/23 for 109 yards, 4 sacks, 1 pick and no TD's against Vandy... 16/27 for 98 yards and 3 picks against TENN... https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/gamelog/_/id/4361418/will-levis
I believe Bears don’t move anywhere below 4.. that would keep them in the running for Carter or Anderson. I brought up moving up one spot since I believe a team outside the top 4 is more willing to trade to 3 than 1 with it being less assets being used. Since there is no generational talent in this draft I believe Colts will value Levis/Stroud/Young in the same tier and stay put and take 1 that falls to them. The asking price for pick 1 I’ve heard is start with 3 1st.. Colts could love Levis or Young enough to trade up for them.. but are there really a qb away to contend and not have draft capital to build around there young qb? I guess we shall see
Even adjusting for competition, can we even objectively put him in the top half of FBS QB's last year?
It’s not just that 1st pick although it’s obviously the most important. It’s the fact that we move down a spot in every round. Who knows the ramifications that might have
https://theathletic.com/4081586/2023/01/12/bears-top-pick-trade-market/ To gain an early gauge of a potential trade market, we gathered analysis from other beat writers at The Athletic. Here’s our look at five early trade-partner candidates: Houston Texans, No. 2: We can’t rule out the Texans’ simply being dysfunctional the way they mishandled Week 18 by beating the Colts and handing the Bears the No. 1 pick. But it’s also possible Houston didn’t do something like bench quarterback Davis Mills for Jeff Driskel because the franchise doesn’t see a clear-cut top quarterback prospect in this draft. If the Texans decide one quarterback is better than any other and thus worth trading up for, they can do so thanks to the haul they acquired from Cleveland in the Deshaun Watson trade. But giving away draft capital to move up one spot when the roster has so many other holes and the team was in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 pick entering Week 18 would be tough to swallow. — Aaron Reiss Indianapolis Colts, No. 4: Are the Colts in play for a potential move up to No. 1? Absolutely. To start, general manager Chris Ballard said as much earlier this week, asked whether he would move “heaven and earth” to trade up to the top spot if he believed there was a franchise-changing quarterback available: “I’d do whatever it takes,” he said. “If we thought there’s a player that we’re driven to get that makes the franchise and the team better, that’s what we would do.” Secondly, the Colts are done with the veteran quarterback route, scarred by recent misses on Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan, and owner Jim Irsay wants a young QB. Those around him believe the Colts — who have the fourth pick in April’s draft — will do whatever is needed to make that happen. Ryan Poles, keep your phone handy. — Zak Keefer Las Vegas Raiders, No. 7: If the Raiders decide to draft a quarterback in the first round — what, 46-year-old Tom Brady doesn’t want to play behind that offensive line for a team that was 6-11?!?! — then GM Dave Ziegler should trade up and get the guy he and Josh McDaniels want. Don’t wait for Will Levis or Anthony Richardson if you fall in love with Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud. — Vic Tafur Carolina Panthers, No. 9: After cycling through three QBs in three years who were acquired via trade or free agency, the Panthers seem ready to swing big in the draft. Scott Fitterer and assistant GM Dan Morgan spent a chunk of the fall traveling to scout the top four quarterbacks in person. They likely could stand pat at No. 9 and get one of them. But if they become smitten with one in particular, Fitterer has the draft capital to move up to No. 1 — thanks to the Christian McCaffrey trade, which brought the Panthers an extra second, third and fourth this year and an additional fifth in 2024. The Panthers almost certainly would have to include a future first-round pick. That’s a lot to give up, but the Panthers haven’t had good QB play since Cam Newton was injured halfway through the 2018 season. — Joe Person Tennessee Titans, No. 11: If Mike Vrabel and the Titans’ GM to be hired later decide one of these quarterbacks is the absolute future of the franchise, perhaps a bundle could be put together to jump 10 spots. Would the Bears be interested in a Derrick Henry and/or Jeffery Simmons along with picks? Are the Titans willing to blow it up to that extent? They can afford to move on from Ryan Tannehill, though it’s more likely they roll with Henry and Tannehill for one more season. — Joe Rexrode
Would it be too extreme to go offense-offense-offense with the first three picks? Hypothetically if we landed Young/Stroud at #2, Michael Mayer at #12, and Rashee Rice with #34, we could overnight have a damn good young offensive core. I just don't see a massively obvious talent gap between players like QJ/Addison who are going early-to-mid 1st in most drafts vs Rice/JSN going late-1st to early-2nd. Any thoughts on Michael Mayer as a potential option for Texans at #12? How does he compare as a prospect to other 1st round tight ends (if you look at tight ends drafted in the first round in the last decade, pretty surprisingly high complete miss rate)
I just watched Rashee Rice this morning. He has GREAT hands and looked like a really good route runner. My only question would be his speed and separation. He’s listed as having 4.36 speed but I really didn’t see too many break away plays. Offense with the first 3 picks is not too extreme to me but it depends on what you do in free agency. Day’Ron Payne would be my first FA target. QB should be for sure the first pick. DE would be next at 1.12 then a WR at 2.33 I don’t know much about Michael Mayer but there are a ton of TEs in this draft.
He's not an athletic freak like Gronk/Kelce/Graham, but he's got great hands, runs great routes and is a very good to great blocker. He's more of a "sure thing to be a contributor" than any 1st round TE that's come out in a few years (off the top of my head). As far as offense-offense-offense goes, as long as they start to address the glaring holes at C/OG and DT/LB/Edge somehow I'd be fine with that. The talent deficit can't be fixed in 1 offseason. BPA in the draft (with some exceptions) isn't a bad strategy for them this year.
Houston Texans Who knows what direction Houston is heading in after firing Lovie Smith following Week 18, but the Texans need someone to steer the ship if they ever hope to maneuver their way out of the AFC South and back to relevancy. They’ve shown flashes this year behind one of the youngest rosters in football, but moving up for a quarterback should remain atop the ‘to-do’ list. They blew the opportunity to slot first overall after beating the Indianapolis Colts yesterday, and while you want to compete at every opportunity you have, making the move to No. 1 and aligning yourself for the future should be the next plan of action. Indianapolis Colts Speaking of a franchise in the AFC South without a working compass, while the Colts have a roster ready to compete, they remain without the most important piece to the puzzle. Multiple years of adding journeyman vets to serve as stop-gap options has run its course. Moving up to the top spot in the 2023 NFL Draft to grab a talent like Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, or Will Levis would be good business. They need fresh bodies on defense that they should use draft capital on, but grabbing a youth-infused face of the franchise to hitch your wagon to on offense should allow them to compete for division titles in the years to come. Carolina Panthers The Panthers are littered with high-end young talent and the days of Sam Darnold and Co. look to be over. A tip of the cap is deserved for the job interim head coach Steve Wilks has done in captaining the ship after the firing of Matt Rhule. Carolina remains a group that could be a “quarterback” away from becoming NFC South favorites. They’d have to give up a lot to move up from No. 9 overall, but the move could set them up for a decade or more if all comes to fruition. Las Vegas Raiders Derek Carr is on his way out and I expect the Raiders to look very different come Week 1 in September. I find it hard to believe that Jarrett Stidham is even remotely close to the answer, and with McDaniels entering year two, he wants his guy. Three teams in front of Vegas (No. 7 overall) look to be shoo-ins to take a quarterback, which means general manager Dave Ziegler will have his hands full maneuvering his way up the NFL draft board if he wants to make a move for his future under center. In a division that already touts Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, the Raiders have to figure out their plan in the pocket if they look to remain competitive moving into 2023.
I frankly don't want anything to do with a QB that is 5'10" or shorter. Quarterbacks get hit all the time, perhaps not one every play, but they will get hit a lot, and the smaller frame means that there is an increased likely hood that they won't be able to sustain a continued barrage of hits over a season or a career. And with Young being a running quarterback, that will open up opportunities to get hit too. Look at the position of running backs, in today's NFL, the short NFL shelf life of elite RB is because modern NFL defenses have hacked into maximum damage mode per hit.... I hope the Texans don't draft Young. And if they do end up drafting him, I'll root for him, but it is a concern (the injury potential to a 5'10" running QB).
The only concern I have about Bryce Young is his size. If he was at least 3-4 inches taller he would be my #1 option with the #2 pick.
Oh good grief, Bryce Young is SHORTER than we all thought. He's 5'10" tops. Probably weighs 180 lbs. This would be small for a cornerback, much less a QB. Too risky.
