[2023 Most Improved Player] Green, Jabari, Brooks, Alpe

Historically, MIP almost always goes to a player on a playoff team. So no one from the Pistons or Rockets will win it.

Murphy III is a good candidate because he's not on most people's radar, but his issue is that he shares the court with ball dominant Ingram and (occasionally) Zion.

Jalen Williams and Okongwu seem like decent bets, especially if Capela is traded sooner than later. Mobley seems like a smart bet too, but I don't know... I am wondering if Cleveland will be only as-good as they were last year. I don't think they'll improve a ton.

What about Anthony Edwards? What if he becomes a top 10 player? That's something we should consider.

 

Head Honcho will take this disrespect personally.

 

And that's the quickest way for him to find himself out of a contract

 

I can't decide whether it's a good thing or a bad thing that 4/5 of the starting five for this team got votes. Glass-half full: Lots of room for improvement, and clearly the media thinks there's room for growth! Glass-half empty: Man, ESPN thinks we suck...

 

If any of the Rockets win this award, I think we will be a play-in, if not a playoff team. We already have Fred VanVleet. If Jalen wins, he will be a borderline star averaging 23+ ppg on better shooting than before and/or better defense. We would have an all-star backcourt with Amen and Kevin to back them up. If Brooks wins it, that means his shot would have improved substantially which will open the driving lanes for Fred, Jalen, Amen and Alperen. I highly doubt that Dillon would come anywhere close to winning this award. I think out of everyone on the Rockets, Jabari Smith has the highest potential to win the award. His defense is already solid and he has proven to be clutch. If he wins MIP, it would mean that his shot would have gotten much better. I hope he is practicing his shot everyday. If Alperen Sengun wins, it would mean that his shot and/or defense would have improved significantly. Sengun with solid defense is an all-star caliber player.

 

They gonna give it to Reeves

 

I don't think MIP will be awarded to a player who had a couple good games in December. So I don't think the mid season tournament will have an impact here.

The play-in probably does change things for some voters, but I don't see either the Pistons or Rockets nearing the play-in. So, it doesn't change anything for my prediction.

 

It's such a stupid award.

Here's an award for averaging 28 points vs 25 points last year. You have improved.

This award should be for players like TyTy Washington and Garuba.

 

I didn't really know this and had never heard it, so I decided to look it up. It looks like it goes to someone on a playoff team more often than not, but it's not unheard of for guys to get it on bad teams. Here are the 15 most recent MIP winners with their team record, teams that missed the playoffs are marked -

Last 15 MIP:
Markkanen: 37-45 (missed playoffs)
Morant: 56-26
Randle: 41-31
Ingram: 30-42 (missed playoffs)
Siakam: 58-24
Oladipo: 48-34
Giannis: 42-40
McCollum: 44-38
Butler: 50-32
Dragic: 48-34 (missed playoffs but great record)
PG13: 49-32
Ryan Anderson: 37-29
Kevin Love: 17-65 (missed playoffs)
Aaron Brooks: 42-40 (missed playoffs)
Danny Granger: 36-46 (missed playoffs)

So 6 out of 15 went to non playoff teams, but Dragic on the suns at 48-34 is a major outlier, so let's just say it went to non playoff teams 5 out of 15 times. That's 1/3, so I wouldn't rule it out that a piston or a rocket could win, it seems reasonably likely. But it also does seem like they tend to give this award to "best player on the team that nobody expected to make the playoffs" which is like a <1% chance of being the rockets.

 

Thanks for pulling all that. I would be interested to see their respective conference and league standings as well.

The idea that MIP goes to a playoff-competing team was one I actually read from an NBA.com article a year or so ago. It said that this award usually goes to a player on a playoff team or at least one who is contending for the playoffs.

The last over/under I saw for the Rockets this year was 31.5. If we are near that, then I don't see any of our guys getting serious consideration.

Of those listed, Kevin Love is the major exception over the last 15 years. And maybe Ingram getting 30 wins in 72 games is relevant too. So maybe those 2 give some people here some hope, but I'm not betting on it. I certainly wouldn't describe it as likely.

On a different note, I'd be interested to see how many seasons each of these 15 players had played prior to winning MIP. Did they win in their 3rd, 4th, 5th year? I've heard on podcasts that some voters don't really consider 2nd or 3rd year players because substantial improvement is expected at that point in their career. That would be another reason to not see the word coming to Houston next year.

 

So looks like if Rockets have a Brooks, he’s got a good chance to win it. Data!!
(that;s how @fchowd0311 is trying to show that Jalen Green is good, BTW)

 

Sorry man I don't got access to their balls like you do to measure their t levels for a more accurate assessment.

 

I cannot for the life of me understand the ****ing obsession with Evan ****ing Mobley. Him and Austin Reeves.

 

Jabari probably has the easiest lift since his overall stats were honestly pretty bad last season and his true talent level as a shooter is much higher than what he showed.

Green and Sengun will have to make more difficult leaps since they were already starting-caliber players last season. They probably need to make the all-star game. Which they could do, but it's harder than just becoming a good starter, which might do it for Jabari.

Dillon Brooks has gotten worse every year he's been in the league lol. (Edit: Okay, exaggeration, but he has never shown any signs of making real improvements to his scoring efficiency, and his 3P% has basically been on a downward trajectory since his second year.)

 

lol. That's what's funny... yeah, the MIP has to be a good player, but the best chance you have is if you weren't all that good the year before.

 

22 Wins

 

Snubbed is Bruno Caboclo. He is now one year away from two years away. Most improved.