In 3 years to land those guys is pretty impressive, but the list goes on. You have to keep in mind that there hasn't been a long time for guys to have made it, but Langeliers got them Murphy. Bryce Elder has a 3.04ERA across 160 career innings. Jared Shuster made his debut this year. They have 2 guys from the 2021 draft already make their debut. In the same time period, here are the Astros draftees to make their MLB debut (all from 2019): Korey Lee Grae Kessinger Hunter Brown Peyton Battenfield The last time we hit at the top of the draft was Bregman & Tucker back in 2015. We've not had a 1st or 2nd rounder since then post a positive career WAR. Gilbert could obviously stop that trend, but it has been brutal. Luckily we've had some less heralded prospects succeed where the top guys have failed.
Brice Matthews' stats compare to Dylan Crews and Wyatt Langford, with the exception of batting average. One could argue Big Ten pitching isn't as strong as SEC pitching, however programs like Nebraska are at a deficit early in the season because outdoor baseball isn't possible early in the college season and in much of the offseason due to weather.
From what I've read he's got the athletic ability to become a great player. I trust the Stros development staff.
Overslot HS options: RHP Travis Sykora, SS Cooper Pratt, OF Will Gasparino, RHP Parker Detmers, 3B Carson Rucker, C Zion Rose Otherwise, names I like for rounds 3-10: LHP Grayson Hitt, Alabama OF Homer Bush Jr, GCU C Michael Carico, Davidson OF Spencer Nivens, Missouri St 3B Kyle Karros, UCLA RHP LeBarron Johnson, Texas OF Porter Brown (Texas) would be an overdraft in the top 10 rounds but I really like him.
I look at any draft in any sport this way, if you really like a guy like Porter Brown then it's ok to make sure you get your guy even if you have to overdraft to get him.
Fontana's best single season OPS at Florida: .850 Kessinger's best single season OPS at Ole Miss: .904 Matthews's 2023 OPS at Nebraska: 1.204 It's easy to lump these big school middle infielders together, and there's obviously reasons he may not succeed, but Matthews is a completely different prospect than the two you mentioned.
Last year they took 3 really big pitchers who threw strikes fairly well in Taylor, Knorr, and Dombroski. Treadwell fits that sort of profile, and if any of them can improve secondaries or throw harder they could have a fairly big ceiling. It does seem like a risk to draft a pitcher expecting them to be less injured than they have historically been. Today will be interesting. The Astros typically have targeted 1 high schooler for ~$1 million and going with mostly 4 year college players outside of that. The Braves seemed more comfortable shopping in the $300-500k market for high schoolers as well as the Juco ranks. I suspect the first two picks will leave them with ~$1 million to play with in overslot deals (just a guess) which should allow them to get one of the more premium high schoolers or several mid tier prospects. I suspect those who are disappointed about day 1 will have at least one player from rounds 3-11 that they're more excited about than the first day picks.
Oh I agree with you - Those other guys had limited upside, Matthews has a very high ceiling - my point wasn’t to compare him to them - my point was I didn’t like that the Astros would spend relative high draft picks on players that had very limited likely outcomes…
1 pm cst 2 min per pick, so Houston should make their 3rd round pick around 2pm ct, then ~1 pick per hour after that. Day 2 should wrap up by 9pm ct.
Fangraphs take on Houston’s day 1 picks: It sounds like several teams in the Comp round were dying for Matthews to fall to them. His report reads a lot like George Springer’s did when he came out of UConn: huge bat speed, plus runner, feel to hit needs polish. The vertical break on Treadwell’s fastball is right in line with what Houston tends to target in the draft.
Springer is definitely one of the names that popped into my head, though Springer is bigger than Matthews.
Obviously BPA is always the correct strategy, but pitching, pitching, and more pitching is what I'd like to see. We just don't have much in terms of pitching prospects to get excited about (doesn't mean they won't pop up, as we've been great at unearthing them).
