Luis Baez made his return to the FCL lineup this morning; he was 0-4 with a walk and a couple of strikeouts as the DH.
My stock report entering July Up substantially Luis Baez - Yes, he's still in the complex leagues and yes, this was his first game in like a week, but it's hard not to be enthralled by his start in the FCL. Baez should provide a boost to a moribund Fayetteville offense in the second half... if/when they feel like sending him up there. Up Shay Whitcomb - Whitcomb's power has probably put him in line to see some time in Houston in 2024. He'll have to continue working on lowering that strikeout rate, however, and it's a crowded field with Grae Kessinger already making it to Houston and Mauricio Dubon suddenly becoming a useful MLB player... and don't forget about Pedro Leon (who should probably just go back to the outfield). Quincy Hamilton - Well, he wasn't gonna homer in every at-bat after getting called up to Sugar Land, but Hamilton might be the type of guy who sticks around on an MLB roster for a few years as a 4th/5th outfielder. He's basically found money; after all, what expectations are there for a 23-year-old senior sign? Nolan DeVos - Outside of Spencer Arrighetti, DeVos has likely made the biggest leap of the pitchers in the system in my opinion. There's more than a decent chance that the crop of 2022 pitchers from the middle rounds (Taylor, Knorr, DeVos, Dombroski, Guilfoil, Blubaugh) might all be MLB arms, whether it's with the Astros or someone else. Colton Gordon - Gordon probably doesn't have much left to prove in AA. Ryan Clifford - Clifford slashed .310/.432/.606 with 5 homers and 14 RBI in June, so it might be safe to say he's getting comfortable in Asheville. Cameo in Corpus to end the year, then he starts 2024 back in Corpus as a top-10 system prospect and a top-100 overall prospect. Zach Dezenzo - Power-hitting guy who can play all over the infield? Sounds like Whitcomb 2.0, but Dezenzo doesn't have nearly the same concerns about strikeouts that Whitcomb has. I hope. He should probably finish out the rest of the year in Corpus. Like I said, that backup infield picture is starting to get a bit congested... Tyler Guilfoil - Honestly... he, Dombroski, and Taylor should all be on their way up to Asheville soon as Carolina League hitters are a little below their skill level as pitchers. Now for one out of nowhere... Raimy Rodriguez - Rodriguez, a lower-bonus pitcher from the Dominican Republic, is now stateside. He wasn't really highly touted even though he signed as a 16-year-old. One of the youngest players in the entire DSL complex in his one+ season there, Rodriguez showed why he was the sleeper of the Astros' 2022 IFA class. Back-end top-30 kid until he reaches Fayetteville. Rodriguez has put himself at the forefront of the next next wave of Latin arms, and he might even force his way into the next wave of Latin arms (Ullola, Batista, Santa, Calderon) if those guys continue to scuffle. Slightly up, I guess Zach Cole - After nearly 400 plate appearances with Fayetteville, he has nothing left to prove. But a 30% strikeout rate for a guy who's relatively old for the level, along with a slow bat, raises concerns. He could be Zach Daniels, who can sustain an acceptable average with absurdly high BABIPs despite an extremely high strikeout rate... or he could end up like Logan Cerny, who's playing like a release candidate in Asheville. Steady Kenedy Corona - Acceptable performance in his first taste of AA. Pedro Leon - Considering the fanfare he had when he signed, Leon's performance has left quite a bit to be desired. The tools are there, and so is the wondering whether he can put them all together at once. It's... fine, but probably less than what everyone expected. I think I agree with bringing him up just to see what he's got. Plus, his tools and athleticism could be a spark for a team that's seen its share of ebbs this season. Steady, but getting a little shaky Jacob Melton - Uh... yeah. Batting average isn't a good way to measure prospect status these days, and while Melton has shown power/speed to go along with a nice walk rate and an acceptable strikeout rate, the average falling to .228 will, justified or not, raise questions about the hit tool. Some of that can be attributed to bad luck (.259 BABIP), but that can only go so far before the questions become legit. Slightly down Drew Gilbert - I admit this one is a bit harsh. No idea why they didn't just put him on the IL instead of making him DH through that elbow issue. Down Justin Dirden - Dirden isn't having a terrible year, and he should be an MLB player, but this season has definitely shown that his ceiling is lower than what everyone on his bandwagon (myself included) thought it was. Misael Tamarez - The Astros place an emphasis on giving their pitchers a starters' workload until they prove they can't handle it, and it looks like Tamarez might be reaching that point. He hasn't been missing bats in AAA like he was in the lower levels, so they may as well move him to relief and let him loose. JC Correa - Showing signs of life on offense after that terrible April, and the fact that he knows how to play catcher has bought him time to right the ship. He needs to prove that he hasn't been Peter principled offensively (.212 BABIP may be a major factor in his struggles) in AA. So stock down, but hasn't cratered. David Hensley - Well, the door on a return to Houston outside of a September call-up has probably closed on him. Try again next year. Toilet Sandro Gaston - Just pack it up and try again next year. Logan Cerny, Freudis Nova - release candidates in Asheville, which frankly is some kind of feat.
Jacob Melton went 2-4 with a solo homer (13), a stolen base (29), and scored both of Asheville's runs today. The Tourists lost 13-2; Melton's other run came when he scored on Ryan Clifford's RBI single.
Both A clubs got whacked today; Ricardo Balogh prevented Fayetteville from getting shut out by homering (5) in the 9th.
Drew Gilbert just homered for Corpus @Buck Turgidson, I'm interested to hear your feelings on this camera in Midland making the RF bullpen look like it's on an incline.
I know he's been struggling at the plate but he's got a 1:1 BB/K ratio and has maintained a high OBP which is great to see from a guy playing through an injury, not concerned about his recent performance at all
I do not see a mention of Barber. Thoughts? I fully expected he along with Gordon to be in Sugar Land by the end of June and am wondering if I have underestimated the talent there that could be blocking them.
Barber is steady because he's having a good year, but it's just a standard good year; to me, he hasn't really done anything to truly separate himself from the rest of the upper-level outfielders. He should finish the year in Sugar Land.
I'd trade Barber, Daniels, Dirden, Hamilton, Melton and a couple of other OFs before I'd trade Gilbert.
Obviously Gilbert is the current gem of the system and nobody wants to trade him. The outfield situation is going to change drastically probably at the deadline and off season both. Tucker is under control for 2 more seasons, Chas for 3, and Meyers for 4. Yordan prefers playing LF to DH and is under contract 5 more seasons. That's 4 of a max of 5 outfielders on the roster. 6 of the top 7 and 12 of the top 22 prospects are outfielders. 3 of them are at AAA and another 4 at AA. Gilbert is on the fast track and will be in Houston by this time next year. Leon is in his 2nd season at AAA. Strikeouts are his issue, but he reduced them to 26 4% in June while making a huge jump in run producing stats. If he can maintain those improvements he will be ready for a trial by September. Barber has stayed healthy ( knock wood) and shown why he has been so highly regarded. He has exceptional bat to ball skills with maybe the best hit tool in the system. Dirden had a great spring but tough start at AAA. He was finally putting it together in June when he got hurt. I don't think it would surprise anyone if he became next years Corey Julks except all the competition Corona, Loperfido, Hamilton and others have improved their prospect stock. Also Dirden, Barber, and Corona are all rule 5 eligible in December if they are not added to the 40 man roster. I am very interested to see what happens with the outfield the next 6 months, especially if they bring a guy like Verdugo who is not just a rental.
I know Arrighetti gave up a couple of homers in his AAA debut, but he got plenty of swinging and called strikes and his stuff looked pretty sharp. How many productive starts in AAA before they consider promoting him to the majors? His stuff seems like it could help the team win this season, and it may be needed if Javier is toast.
It's also really good that the 2022 mid-round pitchers have done well in their first full seasons because the Astros may need at least one of them at some point next season.
Honestly? He should pitch on Saturday. They should disable Javier. He can skip 1 start and come off the DL two Tuesdays from now as the new #5 starter out of the all star break. Maybe 2 weeks off will help. If not we are in scary time.
Tyler Whitaker is back with Fayetteville tonight and he just hit a three-run homer (2; 3 season). Jacob Melton (14), Logan Cerny (10), and Ryan Clifford (10; 12 season) have gone deep for Asheville.
Cole McDonald goes 1-2-3 to get the save. He has 36 K in 23 innings at Corpus, and a WHIP below 1. Does anybody have info about his velocity/pitch movement? I'd like to see him in Sugar Land soon. I think we may have something in the 2019 fifteenth rounder.
I think Barber is our most polished OF prospect. He's always had good swing decisions and draws a good amount of walks, the strikeout rate has normalized after a rough start to the year, and he's always had really good bat speed. Hoping he's in the plans to replace Tucker if he doesn't resign with us
a lot of shine is off the rose on that one. Last year he got a future 70 hit tool grade and was still considered a CF candidate. This year Fangraphs has his future hit tool at a 55 and has him confined to a corner. He doesn't have a tradition corner fielder's power so he's either a tweener or 2nd division corner bat. He'll be in the plans but there's no one on the horizon that projects like Tucker or Springer did when they were coming up.
That's pretty much how it's played out this year... all of Barber's appearances in the outfield have been in the corners. He's still a solid prospect, but a lot less spectacular, especially taking his injury history into account. Like I said, most of the upper-level outfielders are doing fine, but no one's really stood out.
