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2023 Astros Minor League Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by tellitlikeitis, Dec 1, 2022.

  1. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Myles Straw having 5.2 WAR just shows the limitations on WAR IMO.

    We will see how it pans out long term but losing a guy with an OPS of .564 isn't a real loss. If he gets his OPS into the 740 range then it can start to hurt.

    I'm happy for Straw and the Indians though.... they both work hard and are smart.
     
  2. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Last time I checked, teams with light hitting, defensive CFs like Straw were winning about what WAR estimates they should. If WAR had limitations on this type of player, that should not be the case. Straw is a below average offensive player with above average defense at a premium position. fWAR says that he is an average player. Average players on well below average salaries are valuable.
    League OPS is about 715 since the trade. A 740 OPS would put Straw in the Varsho range...a well above average player on a well below average pay. There are different levels of hurt and that would be an extreme amount of hurt to make a threshhold.

    Edit: Straw has 0.618 OPS since the trade and 3.9 fWAR.
     
    #162 Joe Joe, Jan 17, 2023
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2023
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  3. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    One thing I am not sure of is if WAR properly takes into account relative scarcity. Yes, a player like Straw may provide 2 wins over a “replacement” level CF, but it may be the case that there is a glut of players like him (good defensive CF who don’t produce much offensively), in which case Straw’s value would be lower relative to other 2 win players. I have not researched it but my guess is that a 2 win DH probably holds more value compared to a 2 win CF who can’t hit, due to scarcity.
     
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  4. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Players like Straw are a dime a dozen. There are similar players without jobs - an OPS below 600 is very hard to play in a line up long term. There is a reason that most of these players do not stick around long term.

    We just disagree. I don't believe than a glove centerfielder with an OPS below 650 is worth that much. They also traditionally struggle against better pitching.
     
  5. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    WAR is all about wins. It does not factor in what is rare at the moment. Scarcity only really plays a role in value when a team gets in the 100+win category, and even then, the scarce guys are easy to see that they are producing value and typically cost a lot more to acquire. Overall, WAR is more scarce than people give credit, and most teams have less than 5 average position players. On guys like Straw, only one team I can think of has had an issue with having too many guys like him lately and they ended up with too few last season.
     
  6. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    WAR is objective. It isn't perfect. Though for the limitation you are inferring, it should be easy to prove with math that teams with similar hitting and similar defensive CFs underperform their win totals. I know it is near impossible for me to convince you are wrong, but it shouldn't be that hard to convince me that you are right. Teams either win what they should according to WAR or they don't.

    Quick test on the top 6 teams in OAA for CF (552 wins, 547 estimated by WAR) with a R2 of 99.97% (i.e., 99.97% of the variance in wins is based on the variance in WAR) with St. Louis and Milwaukie winning 1 less than they should have according to WAR. Cleveland won 4 more than expected. Other 3 teams between 0-2 wins above expected. From this quick test, I find it very hard to believe that the limitation on WAR for measuring Straw's value is much different than any other player (about 0.5 WAR for a full season) as he's providing value through range (measured by OAA).

    Edit: WAR is only for the regular season. Maybe you are right that these types hit worse in the postseason. Long term, guys that are average players become below average very easily. Depending on speed makes it even worse. I would not adovocate expecting Straw to be valubale long term. Also, Straw has 3.9 fWAR since the trade. Not sure what the 5.2 number is (rWAR?).
     
    #166 Joe Joe, Jan 17, 2023
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2023
  7. Rockets34Legend

    Rockets34Legend Contributing Member

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  8. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    4.5rWAR

    Billy Hamilton is the last guy that was similar to Straw, and hasn't been an everyday player since he was 28, the age Straw is now. If he hits .250, he's a regular (assuming his other skills remain). If he doesn't, he'll end up bouncing between AAA and MLB.
     
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  9. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I don't expect Straw to be valuable for much longer. I do think Straw will age a little better than Hamilton as Hamilton was even more reliant on speed and didn't make as much contact as Straw.
     
  10. Htown Legend

    Htown Legend Member

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  11. Nook

    Nook Member

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    #28 is too low IMO for Brown.

    While I don't like Brown as much as I did Javier or McCullers, he is better than one of the top 28 prospects in baseball.... and if there are 28 prospects more valuable than Brown, they are not a dozen or more of the ones ranked above him, they are kids below AA.
     
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  12. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I've changed my views a lot since McCullers was in the minors so I don't think that is a fair comparision for me.

    On Javier, I liked him like many of the high K High BB pitchers, but there was always the concern for me he wouldn't get his walks under control as a starter. Brown had a similar issue, but has a little more track record on having his BB rate manageable in AAA (more on BB issue below). I am more confident in Brown sticking as a starter than I was that Javier would stick. Brown already being in the majors makes him likely a safer prospect than a lot of the pitchers ranked ahead of him as he's less likely to get hurt in the minors and his stuff is likelier to play in the majors.

    On weird things about Brown:
    In the last 10 years, only 3 pitchers (80 inn, 6 start min, <27 years old) have had greater than 25% K rate and 50% GB rate in a season in AAA. Jimmy Nelson is the only half decent comp (a lot fewer Ks, more GBs), and he was great when he wasn't hurt. If he can keep his K rate up, he's a RHP version of Framber. I'm pretty confident the GB% will be one of the better ones in the majors.

    Brown was throwing a lot of strikes last year. His whiff% is not great in the majors or in AAA, but he gets a ton of called strikes. If he throws a pitch in the lower third or the outer third of the plate, batters were swinging less than 50% of the time. Granted, if they swing and put the ball in play, it is a harmless grounder in these areas most often. On the plus side for batters, they get some walks as if they aren't swinging at balls in the zone, they aren't swinging out of the zone. However, I don't think batters can keep just giving Brown that much of the zone unless Brown just stops throwing strikes there.

    Brown.PNG
     
    #172 Joe Joe, Jan 18, 2023
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2023
  13. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Updated my preseason top 30 after the int'l signing period and reviewing new info:

    1. RHP Hunter Brown 55
    2. CF Drew Gilbert 50
    3. 1B/C Yainer Diaz 50
    4. OF Pedro Leon 50
    5. C Korey Lee 50
    6. RHP Forrest Whitley 50
    7. OF Jacob Melton 45+
    8. OF Colin Barber 45+
    9. OF/1B Ryan Clifford 45+
    10. IF David Hensley 45+
    11. 3B Joe Perez 45+
    12. RHP Spencer Arrighetti 45
    13. RHP Shawn Dubin 45
    14. RHP Alex Santos 45
    15. RHP Andrew Taylor 45
    16. RHP Jaime Melendez 45
    17. OF Justin Dirden 45
    18. IF Will Wagner 45
    19. OF/3B Corey Julks 45
    20. IF Cristian Gonzalez 45
    21. OF/IF Tyler Whitaker 45
    22. RHP Miguel Ullola 45
    23. RHP Misael Tamarez 45
    24. RHP JP France 45
    25. OF Zach Daniels 45
    26. IF Freudis Nova 45
    27. OF Luis Baez 45
    28. OF Kenni Gomez 45
    29. OF Esmil Valencia 45
    30. IF Camilo Diaz 40+

    Other grade 40+:
    C: JC Correa
    IF: Luis Santana, Grae Kessinger, Shay Whitcomb
    OF: Jordan Brewer, Kenedy Corona, Joey Loperfido, Quincy Hamilton, Scott Schreiber, Logan Cerny
    P: Angel Macuare, Jayden Murray, Ronel Blanco, Parker Mushinski, Adrian Chaidez, Julio Robaina, Tyler Brown, Colton Gordon, Alimber Santa, Jose Fleury

    Others worth tracking (grade 40):
    C: Berryhill, Salazar, N Rodriguez, CJ Stubbs, Palma, Santander, Gaston, Price
    IF: Borden, Dezenzo, Carrasco, Lorenzo, A Hernandez, G Ramirez
    OF: McKenna, Adolph, Barefoot, Sandle, Costes, Machandy, E Perez
    P: Endersby, Hansen, Conine, Record, Solis, Deason, Ruppenthal, Sprinkle, Coats, Blubaugh, Bellozo, Calderon, Henley, TOkar, Gusto, Rivera, Jimenez, Knorr, Dombroski, DeVos, Guilfoil, Ivey, Espinosa
     
  14. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Solid list.

    I would move Kenni Gomez up to the top dozen prospects.

    Justin Dirden is in the top 10 for me,

    Miguel Ullola is close to the top 10 as well, probably in the top dozen.

    JC Correa appears to be able to stick behind the plate so I have him in the top 25.
     
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  15. jiggyfly

    jiggyfly Member
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    If Whitley can still be a thing, then the Astros are truly blessed.
     
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  16. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    It'll probably change a lot after just a few weeks of the season. If Correa is the default catcher in Corpus or if Gomez is assigned to Fayetteville, they would shoot way up the list. Having seen Dirden play a few times I just don't see him with much defensive value and he strikes out enough that it seems like hed be totally reliant on hitting for power in MLB. Ullola probably should be higher based on scouting feedback, but I am usually late on those international arms in the lower levels (just like the rest of the league/internet).
     
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  17. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Agreed.

    As for Dirden.... I don't think he is a future Gold Glover, but he is deceptive. He has above average instincts and he has solid speed once he gets going so he closes in on balls well. He is one of the rare guys that can look too slow on the corner outfield spots but surprisingly field well enough in center. His arm is also okay.

    As a hitter, he strikes out about once a game, and ideally that goes down some but he does work counts and he also gets a walk every other game.

    He was terrible the last two weeks in AAA, but before that was hitting very well. So we will see how he does going forward.

    He really hits right handed pitching well, so he could be a quasi platoon guy with the Astros.
     
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  18. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Bring him up! I'm probably the high man on Chas, but if his bat against RHPs doesn't get better than average, he is an excellent platoon candidate.
     
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  19. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    How lefty heavy will the Astros lineup be in 4 years?

    Yordan is still the man but likely more DH than LF after7-8 years in the league.

    The entire OF is likely replaced since 2023 with either Chas or Meyers the only possible remaining and hopefully the current prospects pass them up for starting spots simply due to talent level and potential.

    Barber is current prospect I see most likely to settle in at LF.

    Gilbert is the highest rated OF prospect and most likely CF

    Melton could very easy win the RF job replacing Tucker.

    Clifton could replace Abreu at 1B.

    Will Wagner could replace Altuve or Bregman.

    6 potential lefty bats among the 9 starters.
     
  20. Yordan The Great

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    Straw having a 2.7 WAR this year, an OF with a
    . 211 BA and 32 RBI in a whopping 535 ABs.

    If you ever needed an argument that WAR is complete garbage, then here's your poster child.

    3 more wins than what, a turtle?
     
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